Day of Solidarity (October 24th 2011)

It seems that everywhere around us, there is turmoil. No one seems satisfied whether it is Syria, Egypt, Senegal or Wall Street. It appears that governance is at the root of it all. People want to be respected, and I mean really respected no just lip service. They want to fill as if their life has purpose to the whole. On June 23rd, 2011 in Dakar, Senegal I saw what meant when the people took to the streets against the government and the police. The president of the country tried to change the constitution and was immediately resisted by ordinary people.

The problem seems to be how those in power become addicted to it. They seem to not notice that the people put them in that position and that respect is still required. There is a saying that Everyone has a village: This means that we all come from humble positions in life no matter what position we attain. When we forget this, we lose our true balance and connection to life.

Locally, at Howard U., we find ourselves in a similar position. We have a President who has a heart of integrity, but we are in a system that exists for itself. Part of the problem seems to be living in Washington DC. Being so close to the power can lead to delusions of who you are. Howard University is like no other in the world. It serves the children whose ancestors came to the US in chains and help to build the infrastructure through slavery. In that spirit, we are connected to our past and cannot abandoned it. We cannot be the Black Harvard or Georgetown on Georgia Ave. We just have to be about the business of dream making, justice and service to society. We cannot do this, if we don't treat the stakeholders (students, staff, faculty) within Howard University with respect and dignity. Unfortunately, the system has become more centralized and less transparent. Consequently many problems have developed this semester.
Mismanagement of scholarships, late pay for graduate students, faculty, and insufficient accountability.

As a faculty member, sitting with other concerned faculty members last month we were all so upset and yet felt helpless. We could send emails and letters but it would all be seen as isolated events. But as we were losing hope the thought of a day of solidarity came up. We all felt it at the same time. On Monday, October 24, 2011 the day of solidarity becomes a reality. Our goal is not to destroy the university but to get the system to respect everyone by fixing the problems that exists and to stop the centralization without transparency. That becomes a disease that propagates into the minds of all.

Yes, there is a sense of fear, but when we think about our legacy of fighting for the underdog against injustice it all becomes clear: COURAGE IS THE BASIS for CHANGE - whether it is Egypt, Senegal, Tunisia, Syria, Senegal, Montgomery Alabama or Howard University.

So will this be the science fiction movie -- IRENE takes the East Coast by Force??

So, once again, Mother nature teaches us a thing or two. Yesterday, Hurricane Irene was forecast to to go west and pass over the Dominican Republic or Haiti. However, a strange thing happened along the way-- It went north and crossed over Puerto Rico knocking out power to half of the country. That in turned changed by the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. Why??

If Hurricane Irene had gone across the Dominican Republic- the mountains would have weakened it. As it turns it turns out, Irene has not weakened and the track is carrying it up the East Coast. The models (global and mesoscale) are converging on this solution.

But what if some of these model solutions are correct --

Hurricane Irene will be powerful Category 3 that roars into the Carolinas but then hugs the coast spreading havoc up the coastline and then making a second landfall in NYC???? Does this seem like a crazy scenario??

Well hurricane have made landfall on Long-Island and also struck NYC. Unfortunately, nature does not know that these are modern cities where people feel comfortable. It also does not know that tens of millions of people live along the coastline where they drive the US economy.

The real danger is that is virtually impossible to evacuate DC, Philly, NYC, Boston. There is not enough road. In addition, our infrastructure has not been tested for many years now and we are more connected -- by phone towers, power lines, gas lines -- a failure of one system impacts other systems and many people all at once. So while I hope that scenario does not play out, we should accept that we are not flexible and probably not prepared for the worst case scenario. In a bad scenario, those who have less will lose the most. Those who are most vulnerable will lose the most.

Even if climate change were never to happen, it is an eventuality that a strong hurricane will one day hit a major population center. The urbanization will not work in our favor. I think that Hurricane Rita taught us that in 2005.

In the meantime, stay aware of the threat and be ready to go outside of your comfort zone if it is required. That may mean stocking up on canned items and water even if this is not the worst case scenario. Make a list of all of those people that you might have to help or at least make sure that they are safe. Make a list of all of those important items that you might need to take with you (prescriptions, cash, passports, birth certificates, bank account numbers) It never hurts to be prepared.

Potentially Dangerous Irene on the move. Who is vulnerable??

TS Irene continues to develop this afternoon and is currently located just to the southeast of Puerto Rico. She is under very favorable conditions (an upper level anticyclone, low shear and warm waters) for rapid development over the next few days. The models are split on the path of where she is going. The last GFS and Canadian models carry Irene towards Miami and the East coast of the US. Some of the mesoscale models are carrying it towards Western Florida. In all cases, the models are developing a Hurricane that will be Category 2 or higher on its way to the US.

Before that happens, the next 48 hours will determine how Irene evolves. Depending on how much interaction there is with Dominican Republic and Haiti will determine the strength of Irene. The more it interacts with the high mountains the weaker is will emerge. However, little or interaction with the mountains will mean a stronger system will head towards the United States.

In any case, whether you are in southern parts of Puerto Rico, San Domingo, Port Au Prince, Nassau or Miami, or other areas you need to stay tuned and be prepared to move if necessary. Identify your key personal items (bank accounts, passports...) and get cash if the forecast is for a landfall in your area. The biggest threats in the next 48 hours will be to Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Haiti from live-threatening rains and possible Category 1 winds. Later (Wednesday -Saturday), the threat will be over the US and possibly the Bahamas.

2 PM location (from the Hurricane Center)
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LOCATION...17.5N 63.7W

ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...ESE OF ST CROIX

ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES



The pressure has fallen by and estimated 6 mb since 11 AM -- suggesting strengthening.

Is this the ONE??? -- TC IRENE

Well another threat to the Caribbean exist today. Thus far the cyclones have all been tropical storms with the models having trouble with their intensity. However as we continue to roll into late August and September, the water temperatures will warm lagging behind the air temperatures. But the lastest disturbance looks nasty and the global models are all forecasting it to become a significant hurricane. The tracks vary from crossing Haiti to Cuba with an eventual track towards Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. Many models are forecasting it to strengthen rapidly once it crosses the leeward Islands, but I suspect that they will catch some very bad weather over the next 48 hours.

Hey its August 20 and we are at storm name Harvey. My friends and colleagues in Cape Verde were under the influence of a strong wave today. It may also develop -- but watch out for 3-4 days from now with a very strong wave is forecast to cross Dakar and roll into Cape Verde. Looks like its getting busy out there. Next 15-20 days will tell us a lot about the 2011 hurricane season.

A case study of Haiti and TS Emily --- Model Uncertainty or a stroke of divine intervention

Tropical Storm Emily while forgotten remains an enigma. First, this was a storm that played havoc with intensity forecast and also location. The most amazing piece of the story is with Haiti. The storm had been slowly moving towards Haiti with our worst fears coming to mind. However, we were told that there were 12,000 UN peacekeepers were ready to help those living in flood-prone areas where people were living in tent cities. The rain was heavy to the neighboring Dominican Republic just to the east.

But not so fast. A strange things happened along the way. The tropical storm completely dissipated just before hitting Haiti. Crazy thing is that is regenerated to the north of Cuba a day or so later. So what in the world ...... Well this was a storm that was a mess to forecast at any rate. There were difficulties in figuring out the real location was at as soon as it came into the Caribbean Sea. When it was forecast to turn north it didn't. This one will be a case that scientists will try to simulate to see what happened. On the other hand, some would say that it was divine intervention. If it was I say Thanks to God because it was looking very bad for heavy life-threatening rains over Haiti.

There are two take away points -- One models that we use are not perfect and although there are right the majority of times, there are still many uncertainties about tropical cyclones. The second takeaway point is that just because an area did not get hit does not mean that you should let your guard down. Those who are vulnerable need to be made less vulnerable and everyone needs to have some degree of preparing if you live in a land-falling zone. The next 8 weeks are when historically most of the tropical cyclones occur.

We have had 7 named storms thus far. This time last year we had 3. We had 19 named storms in 2010. Right now there are significant amounts of dust over the Eastern Atlantic that should keep tropical storms down in that part of the Atlantic. But just because the African Easterly Waves do not immediately form tropical cyclones should not make you think that they are not there. We can track these waves across the the Atlantic and sometime they have organized thunderstorms and sometimes they do not. But if the right conditions should arise, genesis of a tropical cyclone is possible.

So, stay prepared and don't drop your guards.

TS Emily -- A case of mistaken identity --Prepare Haiti

Last night at 7:30 PM TS Emily was officially named for the disturbance in the tropics. The hurricane hunters had identified a well defined disturbance and it was to the east of the Island. I believe that they did, but was it one of multiple vortices that were spinning off the main system?? I believe that it was and immediately all concerns went to what was happening to the north of the system.

However, I do not believe that the real center was identified because if it had been, it should not still be raining in St. Lucia with is closer to 14 N and far to the east of where the system would be. Based on satellite pictures from early this morning the storm had reorganized to the east of the islands and dumped significant amounts of rain on most of the windward Islands. So hurricane genesis is difficult and with one plane investigating a large area is is very difficult.

This morning there is dry air to the north which may be the reason why the TS Emily looks asymmetric with no rain bands to the north. Most of the models are keeping TS Emily as a weak tropical storm and the GFS is actually has it degenerating to a weak easterly wave. However, it the models are using last nights fix for the location of the storm then they could all be biased also. Caption: Dry air to the North of TS Emily (denoted in orange)



At any rate, even if it remains a tropical storm and the path takes it over Haiti it could be damaging to the people living in the tent cities. The next 24-48 hours will determine how much danger the people of Haiti will be in. The system still appears to be healthy this morning and could strengthen as the day goes on. Hopefully the flooding was not so bad in the islands last night and this morning.

TO WARN OR NOT TO WARN in the face of uncertainty during Crop Over

The past weekend and today was Crop Over -- it is the Carnival of Barbados. Lots of costumes, music and fun. People fly in from all over for Crop Over for the experience of being there. Of Course it was extra special this year because Rihanna returned home and was in the parade!! The only damper on crop over was a tropical disturbance that was located about 200 miles northeast of Barbados this morning. There was anticipation that a tropical depression would form but the timing was not clear. This morning the storm looked disorganized and the hurricane hunters did not find a closed circulation. However, this afternoon a strong band of convection began heading towards Barbados. Of course without any tropical storm watches people do not normally react to these situations. Between 4 and 5 PM a heavy band came in over the island causing flooding.

This brings up a fundamental question: If you anticipate potentially dangerous weather with tropical disturbance but the wind criteria has not been reached should you warn the general population? I say this because the rain bands can produce life threatening flash floods, dangerous lightning and strong winds that can bring down power lines and trees. On the other hand should you get folks panicked?? It depends I believe. If a country has the observing capacity such as radars and automated surface stations then you can monitor carefully before warning your population. However, if you do not have these capacities, you probably should lean towards warning the general population. In the case of Barbados, they are having problems with their radar and upper air station measurements. With so many people visiting the island for Crop Over it maybe better to be safe than sorry.

This follows on last years, 9 hour warning prior to TS Tomas striking the island. Many people were upset that they did not get more advanced warning. The Met service was waiting for the National Hurricane Center to identify the tropical disturbance as a tropical storm which may be the right thing to do, but you have to consider the local conditions, preparedness and the capacity of the country. Barbados is a highly developed country but there are many that are not there, and they need to be considered.

As TS Emily rolls across Caribbean over the next few days, and we all focus on the possibility of it impacting the US, we should not forget those countries in the Caribbean (including the ones being impacted tonight), and Eastern Atlantic (coastal West Africa and Cape Verde) that need better observing systems. Until that happens, Met services may need to stick their neck out on the line for their own populations-- even in the face of uncertainty.

The main core of the hurricane season will occur over the next 8-12 weeks -- Keep the people safe!!

The Caribbean stares down the barrel of TC Emily??

This morning the latest tropical disturbance is approximately 500 miles from Barbados and moving towards the islands. The models are unclear about the intensity or path of this storm with some showing rapid development as it passes over the islands and others not. The National Hurricane Center puts the chances of a tropical depression forming at 100%. The last disturbance to hit Barbados and the windward Islands TS/Hurricane Tomas was last Halloween (October 31st). The damage was significant and there were fatalities on St. Lucia and Haiti.

At present a TS watch has not been put out, but most likely later in the day. The problem is that these islands are at the outer edge of meteorological measurements. So all estimates of hurricanes are coming from a stray buoy or satellites which need to pass over when the storm is intensifying. I hope that the folks are ready because I believe that they will have 24-28 hours of rough weather beginning late tonight and early tomorrow.

Because we know so little about rapid intensification, it is a bit unsettling given that the disturbance is about to run over some very warm water and it is currently in a low shear environment. There is dry air and dust to the north, but on its current trajectory it may miss both high shear and dry air leading to rapid intensification. We know that this process can occur quickly as last GRIP experiment found Hurricane Earl going from a CAT 1 to a CAT 3 in about 8 hours. Even our best models cannot forecasts this type of intensification.

I hope that Hurricane Tomas has led to better preparation in the islands for this year. The test is coming in 24-48 hours.

Will Climate Change make Famine the NORM?

For the last two weeks or so, the media has provided coverage of what is happening in Somalia. The rains have failed for the last two years, refugees are on the move to Kenya and Ethiopia and maybe tens of thousands have perished because of malnutrition. So what is going on? There are many droughts around the world, yet those in Africa seem to cause famine. Is this some type of bad luck?? I don't think so. Famine is more likely to occur in regions of the world where there is civil war, conflict or a government that has very little capacity to serve its people. It also occurs, where the poverty rate is very high and rain fed agriculture is the norm rather than the exception. In these regions, agriculture is marginal with bumper crops occurring once in a while.


Drought can occur anywhere on the planet, but it seems that in areas that are semi-arid they tend to be more frequent. In some cases, below normal rainfall in these regions can last for more than a decade. Such events cause many farmers to abandon their lands and move to large cities. But if there is civil war or conflict, these situations will normally lead to famine and disaster. The issue about famine, is that is it a slowly occurring event. Many who live on the margins are not seen by the governing body and so they may not even perceive that a disaster is occurring especially if the center of power is located in some large city. Eventually the slowing evolving famine becomes a disaster with many more than expected in dire need and children, the sick, disabled and elderly facing life or death circumstances. Sometimes conflicts within a country will not allow for aid to reach those who need it the most. Sadly enough, the media reports on such events when they are are moving towards their apex and is all seems so sudden.

This brings up a question. Will climate change make drought and famine more likely in the future in Africa. Sadly, I believe it will. Our climate models show that dry spells and heat wave are likely to increase in Africa. While is it possible that governance will begin to turn around and get better, it needs to happen quickly. The waste and corruption often witnessed do not prepare many African nations for natural hazards such as drought and hence the disaster repeats again. The rural communities continue to remain outside the eye of the central government and large cities continue to grow with migrants from the rural areas. The lack of diversity in many economies also do not provide a buffer against drought. Africa must find a way to feed itself and use its resources in a collective manner across political borders. But first, it must recognize that its greatest resources are its people -- contrary to what history books or the developed world might think.

There is one difference about the future famine that may not be obvious -- we will all likely aid in the intensity of future disasters associated with drought in famine. Indirectly, our individual and collective CO2 emissions will help to intensify drought and heat waves in semi-arid and other marginal areas around the world. There is scientific evidence to support the idea that we are responsible for the 1970s-1980s drought in the Sahelian region because of the warming of the Indian ocean which is following the warming of the global ocean most likely from Greenhouse gases.

So while it will be easy to point to warlords or factions that do not allow aid to reach those who are suffering, we must also be willing to acknowledge that maybe our unintended greenhouse gases emissions for growing our economies helped the rains to fail.

To Be or Not to Be (TC Don)!!

More than a week ago, (July 15-16) we took our last ozone measurements from Dakar when a well defined closed circulation passed off the coast of Senegal. 10 days later this system is just to the south of Cuba. This easterly wave as dumped rain on Barbados, Dominican republic, Haiti and Cuba. There is lots of easterly wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico, but the wave is still hanging in there.
So the question is to be or not to be!! Tonight or Tomorrow we will know the answer. The model forecast suggest that the weak wave or tropical cyclone may head towards Texas/Mexico in the next 5 days.

Looking further east, the forecast are showing healthy easterly waves moving across West Africa towards the Atlantic. Looks like the table is being set for the hurricane season!

You think that is hot now!! Just wait

This week the Washington DC area is experiencing some of the hottest temperatures of the summer. The mid-west is also experiencing these hot temperatures. The daytime temperatures have hovered around 94 F or 35 C and the night-time temperatures have only fallen to about 80F.
It is nearly impossible to ride in your car with your windows down and over the next three to four days temperatures will approach 100 F and with humidity it will feel like 110 F. For those of you with middle aged to elderly friends and family you need to keep a check on them.

See the not so obvious thing with heat waves is that many of the deaths occur at night with the sun is down and on 2 or 3 floor of apartments or houses. Previous heat waves have had some big negative impacts on the black community over the last 2 decades but will also have an impact on impoverished communities. Also, if you live in the city, more heat is trapped because of the asphalt and concrete. If you don't have an air conditioner, because you cannot afford one or the electric bill, then you have a fan blowing around lots of hot air. Unfortunately, you are losing water through sweating and the body falls under increasing stress. The evening rolls around and you think that you are safe. NOT!! The evening temperatures remain warm and the body remains under stress. This can go on for days leading to dehydration, heat stroke or death. The other thing is that you may feel cool but your body is under severe stress. So, please make sure that everyone is hydrated during these times and those be watchful of those with fans blowing around hot air.

So we will get through this heat wave, but if global climate models are correct your children and grandchildren will face heat that will make this look like it just a warm day. If mean temperatures in DC are were to rise by 2-4 C or 3.6-7.2 F it would be a very bad look. The normal temperatures will be heading into the mid 90s on a typical day in July and the extremes would be at 105, 107, 109. Scary stuff to think about, but unless we do something to slow down the greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere it will become a reality by the mid to late 21st century. And it won't just be DC, it will be nearly all of the current US cities from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. It will stretch across to Europe, Africa and Asia.

When the temp hits 100, I think air conditioner. But that just means more electricity, more coal or oil to generate the electricity and more greenhouse gases. It means lower gas mileage because of the air conditioner and a faster trip to the pump and more greenhouse gases. This is like a habit that we can't seem to break out of. Well we can when law makers decide that renewable energies such as wind and solar, and electric cars can compete with oil, coal and gas prices. The market place must give these renewable and low emission tools a chance to compete which will give our children and grandchildren a chance to see 105 only a few times a summer in DC and not 10 or 15 times later this century.

Stay cool this week, but don't forget about future generations and the need to act on our energy usage. Keep an eye out on Grandma and those beautiful Grand-babies who may not be born yet!!

Dust Dreams .... Yeah it was real.

July 6, 2010 7 PM (left) and July 7, 2010 6 PM (right)

This time approximately 1 year ago, we watched the most amazing event. A large Saharan dust outbreak located 1-3 miles above the ground that nearly blotted the Sun out. Dust you say, yes dust. The Sahara Desert is the largest source of dust in the World. Each year approximately 1 Trillion pounds of dust leaves the Sahara towards the Atlantic, the Mediterranean, Europe and the Middle East. The dust plays an important role in fertilizing the world’s oceans with Iron, which can be taken up by the ocean’s organisms. The dust can travel nearly 3000 miles from Senegal to Barbados during spring and summer seasons. Unfortunately, the dust also causes respiratory problems for many in West Africa and downstream and is one of the leading causes of death in Senegal according to the World Health Organization.

During the summer the dust is suspended above the monsoon layer and only small quantities hit the ground. However, if you are on a flight, you would go right through this dust layer and the ground would not be visible. During the winter, when there is no moist monsoon layer, the dust comes directly to the ground and can be a direct threat to health. The dust also carries the meningitis, which can kill because of its impact on the brain. The Sahel or zone just to the south of the Sahara Desert is the zone during the winter where meningitis is most frequent.

Anyway, this big dust event began on July 5^th in the Southern Algerian Desert and reached Dakar, Senegal during the night of July 7^th, 2010. The Quicktime movie below shows the dust from the MSG satellite with Dust being colored magenta. The next morning, I could not see the Sun directly as it seemed to be covered by clouds. However, it was dust that was above us which was verified by the CALIPSO satellite that viewed the dust layer at about 3 AM in the morning. Our measurements from the ground were off the chart should Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) approaching 4. This means that most of the direct Sunrays (more than 90%) were being scattered in all directions. At one point, a guy asked me if the Sun was the moon because of the way that it looked.

This year, we have also been looking for these kinds of events. This must happen once in a blue moon as nearly 3 years of measurements to not show AOD approaching a value of 4. This year, the dust seems to be confined more to the North, which may suggest that the monsoon is very far north. We have captured about 4 -5 dust events over the last 3 weeks in Senegal and we did not capture any in Cape Verde during the first two weeks of June. This may mean heavier than normal rains over the next 60 days and also a vigorous hurricane season. I am expecting the switch to turn on within 3 weeks, when strong waves begin coming off the coast. In the meantime, we will continue to search for the big one – Dust event that is.

Senegal’s Environmental R….R….R…..oar (Renew, Reuse, Recycle )

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Whether you are in the city of Dakar at the University or a remote village there is a common feature to be found: Plastic.

Black Plastic bags, blue plastic bags, white plastic bags

Plastic coffee or tea cups,

plastic water bottles, plastic coca-cola, fanta, and sprite bottles.

This plastic is often interlaced with trash. This new age material is very difficult to breakdown taking potentially hundreds of years to decay. While it seems so useful to everyday living, when dumped in the villages which do not have a recycling program it is bad. Even if you burn it, the toxic smoke coming from the trash is not good for the health of the children or anyone and it contributes to local air pollution.

When visiting the village of Kawsara two weeks ago to maintain the solar array, I told Janee, one of the students, that we were going to get some trash bags and try to clean up this beautiful village. Two days before leaving that is exactly what we aimed to do. While cleaning up a teacher, David, for one of the students was visiting the village. We talked about the situation and how the plastics were very bad for the environment and soils and that it took so long to break down. He said that many of the villagers were not aware of it and considered it as normal trash, which would eventually decay.

I suggested to him that we put a program together, with the college and high school students and begin to (1) clean up the villages and (2) talk to the village members (men, women and children) about the negative aspects of all of the plastic. I think that this is the first step. But of course we want to go further.

I would like to find a sponsor or push a fundraiser to provide renewable bags to all of the people in the village so that they don't have to get the little black plastic bags. The renewable bags that we use when we go to the grocers would be fine. I looked in Dakar for them but I could not find them. If I can take 1000 renewable bags with me when I go to Senegal next year that would be great; 10,000 would be better.

What about the bottles: I think that there must be a company in Senegal that can take these bottle and either recycle them or transform them into other products such as mats or bags. If such a business does not exist, it could be created in the rural areas and provide local income for the villages. I see this as another way to empower the young people of Senegal by letting find solutions to the problems that exists right now.

The most hopefully part of cleaning up Kawsara was the children. We asked them to help us gather all of the plastic bottles and also asked them to not throw bottles there anymore. We also asked them to tell their parents not to do so. After a short time, we had an army of the youngest members of the village helping us. That is really a beautiful and important investment in the future NOW!!

Civil Unrest in Senegal: Love, Peace , Violence, Stability

As the unrest continues, I have been pondering the following: What if they are right?

What if the disenfranchised, who love their country have to resort to violence to bring change? Is this different than the revolutionary war in the United States?

What if there are those who want peace only want it to preserve the system of corruption and the large class differences that exists in Senegal?

Who is right then and who is wrong?

The disenfranchised cannot remain in their position and the corrupt cannot maintain their position. Does this mean compromise? I thought that power was never given but taken? For the first time, the Army and even UN troops are on the roads.

Are they trying to preserve the peace or preserve the status quo?

The president has not been on TV to explain the situation to the people after a week of unrest. Is this normal for leadership?

As I have stated. I do not advocate violence (physical) but poverty is a form of violence by those who have the power. Being jobless and living on 1 or 2 meals a day is also a form of violence against poor and especially the vulnerable (children, elderly).

We must all overcome our fear of change. The young people who are fighting have overcome their fears and they want real change. Maybe it is time to recognize the legitimacy of their view and stop labeling them as troublemakers. They see the corruption, the invisible hand of the powerful outside interest, and their lack of worth in their society.

Is this real? So when is violence recommended? I don't know now.

However when corruption is destabilizing the society, maybe the threat or reality of violence is what stabilizes the situation. We see this in nature as violent thunderstorms often stablize the the hot summer afternoons, earthquakes often remove the pressure that has been building up for hundreds of years and exploding supernova give birth to solar systems that ultimately house humanity.

Senegal is still growing up and this maybe another growing pain of the young democracy.

I worry about harm coming to my friends in Senegal but I realize that they are suffering each day on some level. The lines have become blurry.

Beyond the Tipping point - Organized Violence

As I reported yesterday, the situation was going downhill with the protest against the Electric company. However, by 8 PM there were fires that were set ablaze in many different areas. There was a big blue city bus that had been set on fire and it was blocking all of the traffic. By the time I finished dinner, there were fires that had been set in many, many areas of the city. I heard that tear gas was fired in some parts of the city but I cannot confirm.

See more on the BBC site: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13938217

This is an organized kind of violence. The people may be using facebook, twitter or sms to organize. This is beyond anything that the older generation is use to. This is different in Egypt because there was organized protest at Tahrir square against the government. This protest is organized not at one focal point but seems to be many. They are not protesting with words, they are acting with fire. I am sure that there will be a response by the government because they cannot ignore the safety of innocent people.

I leave here on Friday, for one of the few times, I can say yes I want to leave. I have students here that I must protect and I don't like to see this type of organized violence. I came here to do research that can benefit the people of Senegal. After we set up our instruments today and go to the village tomorrow, I will have completed the task.


My gut tells me that it will get worse unless the president resigns or says that he will not run in 2012. These young people are pushing for change but their technique while surprising is dangerous.

Going beyond the Tipping point - Electricity, poor Governance and Violence

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Over the last 48 hours the situation continues to evolve in Senegal even as we are doing research. On Sunday morning, I and 5 students were awoken by a bang at 4:30 AM in the morning. I ran to my balcony and saw a line of fire running from the street to the car of the land-lady whose apartment we are staying at. The car was set ablaze by someone. We could not leave by the house by the door because of the flames and smoke, so we moved to the roof of the apartment building where the blaze continued. The firefighters did come and put it out after 20 minutes, but the flames were shooting the near the top of the building. My room (2nd floor) smelled of toxic materials and smoke. While we were not hurt, we were a bit traumatized and we moved from that apartment yesterday to the university.

Why did this occur? The landlady is a supporter of President Wade who the public is protesting. Of course the 23rd of June will be remember here as the day when the public stood up to his plan to change the constitution. It seem like a political sabotage but I cannot be 100% sure. I definitely do not support what the president is doing but I do not want people to be terrorized.

Today, I went to find out how much we owed and as I was leaving the guard told me to be careful because the people were protesting the electric company (Senelec). Senelec needs to be protested because every single day since I have been here, we have lost power. Last night there was no power all night.

I saw everyone looking at the corner and there I saw young men putting bricks in the street and
throwing debris. The then put the stuff on fire and blocked all traffic. They were waiting for the police. I quickly moved away from this area and did see two police, but they did not seem concerned. I don't know the outcome of this last protest.

The thing that concerns me is that all of these issues are converging at once. There is a feel of violence in the air. While many of the older generation do not believe that much will come of this, I am not so confident. All around us we see where poor governance is leading countries like Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. I don't think that you can disregard the young people and I am not sure that they want to listen or talk. But we can't give up on them because they are the future.

I have talked to Senegalese young folks about violence and why is it not the best option. The real problem with violence is that no one knows where it start or ends. A fist fight can become a gun fight and a rock to the head can kill like a bullet. The people here are tired but they have to continue to talk to the younger generation about the downside of violence. They have to protest the injustices but they do not have to become violent, because I am sure that the corruption will collapse. Corruption is unsustainable and like some viruses it begins to kill its host.

On the back side of all if this is the anger that people feel towards this government, the electric company and other forms of power that control their everyday lives. Just remember, they can cannot control the good within us. They cannot remove the good that parents and grandparents have shown and taught us. They cannot remove the good that God has put within us. They cannot take the spirit of man. They are not more powerful than God. But if the people (all people) fall to the way of violence, they will destroy all that is good within. Violent actions does not leave the the mind until one dies. Regret and guilt will also accompany this violence. Again, I say do not accept what is happening but before you pick up the rock --- Think : Will this lead to a positive action within my heart? What if I kill the policeman... What if I hit and kill an innocent person.....

Don't let this system of corruption and your suffering steal your heart or the good ways. Don't forget that we all have a village. No matter where you are in the diaspora. That is where your true self can be found.

The Wet Season in Dakar Begins with a Bang!!

This morning I woke up and felt uncomfortable. In my journal I wrote "The Monsoon is coming!" This comes after deploying our dense and coarse rain gauge network last Mon-Wednesday. While we pulled up to one village, the Chief greeted us and told us just in time. The rain is coming soon. While I couldn't have known how he came to the conclusion, it felt like he was right.

This morning we were driving to our village of Kawsara because we have some work to finish at the solar array and also discussing how to use renewable energy to help them pump water from approximately 190 ft. Kawsara is the village, where we undertook our field campaign in 2006 with NASA. However, they began digging for water in 2004 and found water in October of 2010. The renewable center at Chiekh Anta Diop University has been working on ideas to help them pump the water to the surface so that maybe they can begin some irrigation to grow food.


So we left for Kawsara about 8:45 this morning. On the way the sky began to look very Dark. I told my colleague, the monsoon is coming. I look again and said hey that is not rain, that is brown it looks like dust. 60 seconds later -- lights out. Day became night and everyone put their lights on. Dust was everywhere and the wind was howling. 4 minutes later rain began to fall heavily -- Yeah the Monsoon and wet season arrived. So exciting for us science geeks!!

So a couple of things with the monsoon. We have been planning to measure ozone prior to the wet season arriving because we believe that the soils have bacteria which will release nitric oxide (NO) because they are water stressed from the long dry season of 6 months. This in turn should make ozone (O3) levels high. We have seen this signal over the last few years but this year we are coordinate with scientists from the ministry of environment to monitor the surface levels. Well in short, our boxes arrived too late for our first ozone measurements. We will launch the first one on Monday so we don't have a reference prior to the first rains. But that is the way it goes.

Second, the rains were so heavy and there was some minor flooding on the roads. The drainage is too bad in the suburbs of Dakar. We cannot predict what is coming but the seasonal forecast is pointing to above normal rain. With the lack of electricity in Dakar, poor drainage and heavy rains forecast this year ... watch out. Mosquitoes gonna be biting and Malaria outbreaks need monitored.

Governance, Unrest, Sustainable Development - The Tipping Point

In the past 2 days, I have witnessed things in Senegal that I have never seen before. The anger of the people over poor governance leading to violence. The president of Senegal, tried to amend the constitution of Senegal with the intent of extending his powers. But he had already done this earlier by allowing himself to run for a 3 term when the constitution only allowed for one 7 year term followed by a 2nd 5 year term. The President has used the power of democracy to benefit himself and many outside interest. Senegal has never had a coup and the people prefer to discuss rather than fight. But consider the situation: There are many buildings going up around Senegal and yet there the average person has no money, the young people do not have opportunities (as many are in the streets selling phone cards, popcorn, tissues, fans, cookies and other nonsense). The electricity has been out everyday since I have been here for many hours (one day 20 out of 24 hours).

The idea that the President would try to push these amends in the face of what has happened in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and elsewhere is crazy. You can only step on the neck of a person for so long. Senegal has all of the elements of unrest: Poor economy, Poor governance, man disenfranchised people and poverty. So when the unrest broke out downtown, it also broke out in many locations around Dakar and the country. While I was glad that the people's voice was heard, I was also sadden by the level of violence. It is sad to see the police beating and fighting the citizens of Senegal. But I realize that they are a tool of government.

I really hope that President Wade, decides not to run again because it will just continue the unrest. Senegal needs good governance and a plan for sustainable development; not in the form of loans or outside interest. They need to develop the future: Its young people. There is so much to do for these young people but the view has been that only outside resources can maintain the country. So the development of many seaside hotels.. But what can they do?? Tourism??? How about building a new smartgrid, developing renewable energy, developing recycling plans, developing sustainable rural development and addressing the lack of infrastructure in the rapidly urbanized areas around Senegal. How about investing in the public health sectors so that people can live longer and better lives. How about becoming food independent? How about stopping the brain drain from your countries. Leaders in Africa need to look to Western models for good governance but need stop looking at them for economic development. They need to look at their own talents and strengths for economic development. This can only happen with good governance. They must respect and trust that the people can carry this country forward.

In two days, I have seen two futures. Yesterday when riding to the university in a Cab, We encountered the students who were going to the fight. Their energy was strong and focused on fighting the police and the government. I was not afraid of them, but felt I knew what they were capable of destroying if pressed. This morning, I saw the students walking with their books focused on developing their lives and their country.

President pulled those amendments off the table for discussion after he saw the level of destruction that was occurring. I hope that this was done in humility instead of political maneuvering .

Thursday's final score

People of Senegal 1 Poor Governance 0

The fight continues for respect ...................

If you can’t keep the lights on, maybe its time to try something else

I arrived in Dakar on Sunday afternoon of this week and the weather was hot. That is normal this time of year as there is abundant sunlight before the summer monsoon season begins. However, when speaking to my colleagues, they told me that large parts of the city lose power nearly every day. True enough, since Monday we have gone for many hours without power – sometimes 4-6 hours in the neighborhood that I am living in (Grand Dakar).

I am not sure why this is the case but I would surmise that two factors are at work: (a) the load on the grid is too great or (2) the cost of running the generators for producing electricity by is too expensive.

Senegal has a rapidly growing population and while many in the rural areas do not have access to electricity, the growing towns and the city of Dakar have access to electricity. Dakar has a minimum of 2.5 million people and that is probably off by ½ to 1 million persons especially just outside of the city. It has a vibrant downtown area, is a major shipping port and hosts an international airport. In addition is has a significant middle class and a university, which host approximately 70,000 students (many more than it can handle). The demands on the electric grid must be tremendous during the afternoon when everyone needs power to run their laptops and desktops, classes and businesses are running at maximum capacity and air conditioners are humming because it is so hot. There is too much strain on the grid but not enough juice for everyone; lights out for someone.

Senegal’s major electric company is Senelec uses generators, which are driven by oil. I am told that they tried a new project using charcoal a few years ago. But any system driven by coal, oil or any hydrocarbon base will need a continuous use of that fuel. Given that oil prices are nearly 100 dollars a barrel and the price of gas and diesel in Senegal is somewhere between 6-8 dollars a gallon -- who can pay and who will pay. Senegal as a GNP of approximately 23 Billion USD (US GNP about 14 Trillion dollars) and is currently rated in the lower 90 % of countries on the UN Human development index. Oil Libya is a supplier to Senegal and with the war, I don’t know the reduced oil flow is impacting the ability to generate electricity. However, I am sure that it more expensive to produce electricity because of the high world oil prices.

No matter what the case, developing countries cannot afford to play with electricity in its current form. There are a couple of ways to begin digging out of this mess but it won’t be easy. If you live in the US – also note that the Obama Administration is also working on the same problem.

1.) Develop a SmartGrid and take advantage of energy efficient and smart appliances that can be programmed or adjusted based on the overall load at any given time. There are going to have to be times of the day with the load is reduced by (a) charging more for electricity during peak hours (will help people to use electricity better; (b) Make use of appliances that are energy efficient and that can reduce their cycles during the peak hours of the afternoon; (c) Bring engineers, computer scientists and IT folks together to figure out how to distribute power to the grid on large and small scales based on real-time data.

2.) Set national goals on renewable energy. This means that a country like Senegal must set goals of producing 10 or 25% of their power by solar, wind and biomass. This will help to create new jobs and pull the stress of the current electric grid. I also think that the government should support people who want to come off the grid or reduce their dependency on the grid. Provide them a small supplement for changing their power system. Senegal receives a tremendous amount of sunlight but there are also some areas where wind farms can be pursued. Developed countries should help them develop renewable energies.

3.) Tell people the truth. The use of the electric grid in its current form is unsustainable. You can't provide the power. People are charged by kilowatt-hour no matter what the time of day and so there is a certain level of unconscious behavior that is being encouraged about electricity use. Let them know that it is impossible to continue along this path – that the blackouts and brownouts will get worse. Tell each person that they have a role to play in conservation and the use of renewable energy sources. Let them know that the only way to generate more power is to import more oil or other fossil fuels, which will only help in accelerating anthropogenic climate change, where Africa is the most vulnerable and has the least capacity to adapt – and that their children and grandchildren will be in harms way.

Unfortunately, this is not just a message to Senegal but to all of the governments and people in the World. Fortunately, the European community and some states within the US have begun to see the light and are moving away from the old ways of generating electricity. It may not be until more people are sitting in the dark on a daily basis that action is really promoted.

The Great Green Wall of the Sahel and Climate Change-- More Rain or more Pain

On Monday, I went to sit in on a workshop/conference about the African Drylands and the re-greening of this area. It was very interesting and there has been much written about it:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=farmers-in-sahel-beat-back-drought-and-climate-change-with-trees&print=true

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10344622




What is happening is related to agro-forestry. Farmers are growing trees on their farms and it is leading to the greening of the land in the semi-arid region (the Sahel) where I am currently visiting. In addition to greening the land, it is stabilizing the soils and providing additional income to farmers. It is adding food security to the region. One speaker said that 5,000,000 hectares have been regrown over the last 30 years. There was clearly a difference.

For those of you who may not remember, the Sahelian region has undergone significant changes with a severe drying period in the 1970s and 1980s. The impact was significant with many farmers going to cities leading to urbanization. Furthermore, many lives were lost. At that time the argument went something like:

- the desertification and drought of Sahel was being caused by cattle and poor farming techniques. So in fact the drought was due to the people themselves. Early climate modeling studies seem to support this but the changes that they proposed to the land surface were much larger than observations.

It turns out that we would get a clarification on the causes of drought in West Africa until the early part of this decade. Dr Alessandra Giannini and colleagues wrote an article in Science which through global model attribution showed that the drought was caused primarily by the oceans and that global warming was in part responsible for the ocean temperature changes.

So what is the point. Well we might think that we can green the Sahel which I think is a great idea without also doing mitigation. However, this would be a grand mistake and in fact have little impact on precipitation if the global warming is accelerated or goes beyond a certain point. Estimates range from 2 degrees C-6 degrees C (3.6-10.8 F) globally.

So I applaud these efforts, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking that we don't have to mitigate globally and ultimately move away from a carbon based economy to a renewable energy based economy.

One other problem, is that governments from Sahelian countries that are not at the top of GNP list will begin sinking money into the Green Wall in the hope that their food security will increase. However, if rainfall is being controlled by sources thousands of miles away over the Indian or Atlantic Oceans what will it really mean. DEBT on impoverish countries.

Countries in Sahel did this a few years ago through rain enhancement schemes (cloud seeding). It didn't work because the scale of the rain systems here are huge compared to seeding efforts. Also the clouds also have lots of CCN and ice so trying to make more is really questionable.

Finally, it appears that we are moving into a wet period of the Sahel. Unfortunately, this area cannot handle large amounts of rain and the flooding has displaced hundred of thousands of West African residents in the last 2 years. So there is no easy answer and given that millions of people live in crowded cities -- many in poor conditions does not bode well no matter what the situation is in the countryside.

A deep connection to Mother Africa

As I am winding down my stay in Cape Verde I find myself facing a familiar feeling of leaving a natural but significant part of me behind. The connection to the people, music, the land, the sky is very deep. Waking up each morning here always brings a sense of renewal for me. I must confess that I also feel this in way in Senegal. I am looking forward to going into the villages and seeing the people when we deploy our rain gauge network next week. The transition between the dry season and the wet season can be felt in through my senses like the anticipation of the farmers. No matter what knowledge I have gained from reading journal articles, books and the like, I am always in awe of what actually happens. It is like a place of no other from the weather to the people that I meet. The spiritual journey is often much closer than one can imagine. Taking measurements in West Africa is like nothing you can imagine when you give yourself to the process. If you resist what she is trying to show you, you miss it (completely) but if you remain open and patient you have found your master teacher. The knowledge that you learn will be deep and connected. It is in this environment that I have learned the most, found the connections and remain open to learning.

As for home in the US, I can get into grooves of learning, but often they are for only short periods and truncated because new processes continue to spawn leading to me putting on the absent minded professor costume. I just need to find a way to preserve what I learn in Africa so that I can remain grounded in the US. Is it possible? Yes because the Earth is one, but the noise level is so high and concrete so thick in some environments that you miss your connection…. you just overlook it- maybe every day, every week and every year.

Well even with the sadness, I am heading to Senegal and remained attached to Mother Africa for another 20 days. Just have to cherish one day at a time.

Climate Change and Population growth -- TABOO Talk.

This semester in climate change and public policy we took on the tough issue of population growth and climate change. Why is this such a tough topic to cover: (1) The population growth is occurring for people of color (Yellow, Brown and Black); (2) Areas of Africa through slavery were depopulated at the expense Europe and America; (c) Rising populations of color can envoke either fear or power.

While all of these factors do matter and cannot be ignored, this conversation is about resources for our families, now and for future generations. Each child requires food, clothing and shelter each and every day of their lives -- They also need love. Being able to achieve these feats is a form of love that is not always acknowledged. But the question is where do these resources from? Heating a house, having lights and having fresh water all take energy is not always visible to the user of the resources. Just turn on the light and it is there. But our children and their children will also want to just turn on the lights They will also want heat and want to drive their cars. Can we all do this??? I am not sure, but I see one big traffic jam if 7 billion people have cars. Sure not everyone drives at once or can even drive, but there will be 9 billion people by 2050. Doesn't seem like a lot huh? Well in 1800 there were 1 billion people (1,000,000,000)
today there are 6-7 Billion (6,000,000,000). The amount of energy emission have increased some 1000 fold.

Consider the fact that 2,000,000,000 (billion) people live on less than 2 dollars per day and they do not have cars or lights and maybe not even fresh water... But they want it. In fact everyone wants to live like an American. What does that mean ... The average American person emits about 100 lbs of Carbon dioxide each day. If everyone does this -- Game over. It is the worst case scenario for CO2 emission scenarios.

So where does population enter. When China went to the 1 child per couple issue it seemed like a crazy idea to me. But now that I know that China has 160 cities with over a million people in these cities I am like -- Good idea. China's population is still growing (but also growing American's in lifestyle) and expected to put another 100-200 million folks than it has at present on the Earth in the next 40-50 years. India is expected to put more than 500 million folks on the Earth and the United States probably another 40 million more than present. The minorities (African and Hispanic American) of today in the United States will be the Majority in 2050. But the question remains, will their lives be better off??? Will they enjoy the same things that we today? Will they be able to enjoy those things and possibly have to adapt to a changing climate??

I believe that each person has the right to choose for children on their own, but we have to get out the mindset that we have infinite resources or that everyone has access to basic resources. I think that every person has the right to water and light but many people do not have access to it. I believe that our future generations should also have the right to it. Each of us is responsible for making this happen.

In today's fast moving society, young people are often left behind on issues such as population growth, and resources. Many want children but have not taught to think about it from a resource point of view. But that is because we are just doing as we were taught. One day however, we won't be able to do this. We have to face this reality. We will have to think about the lives that we want for our children and the cost of raising them. The cost will be related daily needs (diapers, clothes, college) and the cost to the planet (biodiversity, deforestation, land-use change and greenhouse gases). Then we have to think about are we willing to pay this price before we having children. This all comes back to the simple question of LOVE. Do we love our lives and the things that we have access to? Do we want the same or an even better quality of life for our children and grandchildren? Can we improve the quality of life for many of those on the planet today? Are we willing to create sustainable livelihoods for everyone? Are will willing to risk future generations to a warmer world, rising sea level, drought, floods and stronger hurricanes?? If we love our children, grandchildren, cousins, nephews, nieces and humanity them you already know the answer, consciousness and the action that is required.

Rope Burn in Sao vicente

Somethings looking behind you is not a bad idea. Yesterday, we launched an ozonesonde (a device that measures ozone from the ground to about 85000 feet) with calm winds under hot conditions. Last night in Cape Verde the winds started to blow but it did not seem so bad and the sky was cloud covered. But launching the balloon was a mess. We waited a bit for air traffic control to give us the green light and when the did we were like ... let do this. Trouble was that the wind was blowing at 20 mph but the nearest station is Dakar Senegal (300 miles away). I tried to check their observations but the noon measurements did not come in yet. At any rate, at launch the balloon was oscillating wildly and wanted to either crash into the ground or run into a large wind vane which provides current for the station. I tried to be a hero and hold on to it like a cowboy and got bad rope burn. At last I let the thing go and ozonesonde just cleared the ground and went nearly horizontal. It just cleared the the volcanic crater in front of the station. Winds for the first 2000 feet were between 30-40 mph and the balloon just went over the Island at a low altitude. After 30 minutes the balloon is at 9000 feet by yesterday was at 15000 feet at the same time. I have a feeling this balloon won't make it to 85000 feet because of the stress on it. Of course I saw all of this when the Dakar measurements just came in about 30 minutes ago. Looked back too late.

The forecast is for the same tomorrow, but we will try to be better prepared.

Hurricane season from the Other Side (Africa)

As I sit here in Sao Vicente, Cape Verde waiting for data completion from a balloon current at 75000 feet, I am thinking about the current hurricane season. At Present a disturbance is over the Caribbean sea with some potential of developing. At least one model (makes it a tropical disturbance -- but that model often overdoes it). Normally this is not a problem, but the disturbance is relatively close to Haiti with its many vulnerable people who are still dealing with the aftermaths of the Earthquake. Current observations show that it has been raining at Port Au Prince for the last 7 hours. We will see how this will play out.

Here in West Africa and Cape Verde everyone is wondering what the upcoming season will bring. It is still too early, but there is clearly a sense that it will be wet again. In fact it most likely rained in Senegal last night. Normally this time of year in Cape Verde and Senegal it is very dry with desert air dominating the scene. This does not seem to be the case at present and most likely next week. You may think that this is just coincidence, but back in the 1950s and 1960s when it was very wet, it was very normal for the wet season to begin in early June. But after the drying period of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s it appears that there is an upswing in wet season again for West Africa.

Seems so far away from America, but West Africa is the birthplace for majority of tropical cyclones. So as the rainy season goes here, it also seems to go for the hurricane season. Beginning in Early July, the monsoon will go into full effect and disturbances will begin rolling off the African continent every 3 to 5 days. I believe that the next 3 weeks will give us a peak into what will happen. Stay tuned.

Until then, we will keep an eye on the Caribbean sea and hope that all is well for the people of Haiti.