Tranquility

Tranquility
Sunset in a Senegalese Village

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Improving future projections of climate change in Africa. Really?? Are you kiddin me?

Last week in Italy, we have been discussing future climate change scenarios for the next IPCC AR5 report. The big centers in Europe, Japan and the US are integrating their climate models and this data will be used for driving regional climate models for Africa (CORDEX-AFRICA). For a computer power point of view, this reminds me a G-8 Summit with African nations involved in the policy making. These centers are running climate models on 100, 200, 1000, 64,000 processors and generating tremendous amounts of data. There are several things that have emerged from this workshop:

Overall recommendations

1.) Don't use a singular realization (1 climate model projection) for understanding climate change

2.) Use ensemble averages for understanding climate change.

3.) Data from GCMs will be available soon for folks to begin running regional models.

BUT, NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND

Ensembles were used in the last IPCC report for Africa showed that there was great uncertainty about future changes over most of the continent. Why??? Because the global models have their own signals of dry and wet patterns that when averaged gives So what will be different now???

There will be no difference unless you bring in the local and regional expertise from Africa. They want to be involved but will they???? The problem is that this is just another exercise for the average scientists who will write grants and publish papers. Guess what? This is what has happened before with no real breakthroughs occurring and limited capacity building.

So I say that the big difference maker for the next IPCC report it relates to Africa will be quality. Quality will emerge from having African scientist who understand the needs of the people in their regions and countries. They know what is important in this process for farmers, the powergrid, water resources, food security and urbanization. Life is not static and cannot be viewed only from the outside.

Let make a change for once.

Monday, March 21, 2011

ClimateChange@HU: In Africa's Corner ... Yes or NO??

ClimateChange@HU: In Africa's Corner ... Yes or NO??: "Africa has been identified as the most vulnerable continent on the Earth with respect to climate change. It does not have the capacity to..."

In Africa's Corner ... Yes or NO??



Africa has been identified as the most vulnerable continent on the Earth with respect to climate change. It does not have the capacity to adapt to most of the present hazards, has a growing population and very little infrastructure. The government structures are weak and very political and the outside influences dominate development. At the same time, Africa has put little of the greenhouse gas into the atmosphere through transport or industry. It has contributed via land-use change but much of this is also driven by outside influences (deforestation for hardwoods and the like).

It really seems like an impossible task, unless we bring out humanity to it. The humanity has nothing to do with self interest or even career development. It is just the right thing to do.

We are causing a significant part of the problem because of our emissions in the developed world. That on top of centuries of slavery, colonialism and now globalization. What about a few decades of humanity??

The meeting that I am attending in Italy is called CORDEX (Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). The idea is to reduce our uncertainties about climate change on a regional basis while increasing our understanding. There are more than 160 participants with the majority of the participants coming from developed countries (Europe and US). Africa is supposed to be first area of focus. However, I sense that somehow we are missing something important in all of our discussions about analysis, ensemble modeling, dynamic and statistical downscaling, blah blah blah.... That is humanity.

For me what matters, is the warm smiles from Africa, the struggling students, the hardworking farmers, but most of all it is the children and the chiefs of the villages. The children because they are the future and the best hope of tomorrow. The chiefs because they have seen so much and have to protect everyone in the village.

The Chief from Senegal at left with the young girl was 94 years old when the picture was taken. Several years ago he told me about the wet 1960s and then how it became so dry in the 1970s and 1980s. When I shake his hands and look into his eyes I feel humanity calling on me to be a better scientists and a better human being. To watch out for the young one and to help make a better way.

The other chief on the right is also one who I have made a point to visit him whenever we deploy our rain gauges before the wet season begins. He has been very ill, and I hope that he is still alive although he was still weak when I saw him in 2010. I know he is worried about the future. He is worried about Humanity...

So what are we going to do? We have to help with building institutions in Africa to give the young people a chance ... to help with problems that maybe they didn't create but they must help solve.

Everyone can be part of the solution. Even if you turn off your lights, drive less or consume less you are helping. But what they need are scientists who are educated and have the tools to deal with the current and ensuing environmental problems that are lurking all around their societies.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Get that small car off the road or else.. I'll heat up your planet and create some petrodictators



Have you ever wondered why all those people with small cars are on the road when driving up
I-95? Why can't they just get off the road with those small engines and uncomfortable seats. Don't they know the bigger the better? Why do we think like this???

Is this because we are bombarded by luxury car commercials while trying to watch the NCAA finals or any TV for that matter???

Are they trying to tell us something??

You = Car
Human = Machine

You at the top of the World = Lincoln MKZ, Benz 600, BMW X7, Lexus RX,

You need some more juice baby = Smart Car, Prius, Corolla and those other small cars....

Compare the attached pictures and advertisement from Rome, Italy to what we are use to.

Something to think about while living your life in the MATRIX.

And you know that Italians got swagger and style -- Stop playin.


But the truth is that there is no free lunch. Projection is not reality. Sometime reality becomes a nightmare when millions and millions of people start replicating the same behavior.

The Earth has warmed by nearly 1.4 degrees since 1850 and its going to get warmer.


Trust Me on that.

I'll be back!!

Monday, March 14, 2011

The end of the World 2011/2012 or Vulnerable Societies

I have heard that the world is coming to an end on May 21, 2011 and also December 21 2012. The recent earthquakes in Haiti, Japan and Chile, strong hurricanes, Tsunamis seems to suggest that something is coming. Is it true or not??

I think not. Earthquakes are common occurrences near plate boundaries. All of the major Earthquakes in the recent 7 years have occurred along plate boundaries. Japan and Chile are along major areas of convergent plates and Earthquakes are common along these plates. Big earthquakes can happen in these areas. These countries try to prepare for the unpredictable event. Recent earthquake in Kobe Japan and Chile show that the infrastructure damage was there but the fatalities were kept to a minimum. However, a very large Earthquake which generates a Tsunami is extremely hard to prepare for.

Haiti on the other hand, had lots of pressure building up on transform boundaries with the last earthquake occurring nearly 250 years ago. Haiti had no institutional memory of a large earthquake. There were no drill and very little building codes that were put in place for a moderately strong Earthquake. Most of the fatalities occurred because of poorly constructed buildings with little reinforced steel. There were warnings in 2008 that a 7.0 Magnitude earthquake was likely along the main fault line that runs south of port au prince. But because Earthquakes are unpredictable that could mean next month or 10 years from now. At present the stress remains on the fault line and another major Earthquake is expected to impact Port Au Prince in the near future.

So this brings me to the question about vulnerable societies. Should you building cities and towns in vulnerable areas-- such as Port Au Prince (20 km from a main fault line), or New Orleans (below sea level) where hazards such as Earthquakes or Hurricanes are likely to impact these regions sooner or later?? If you build them, should you put in the proper infrastructure and create hazard maps for these regions so that everyone (from the homeowner to the emergency management team) is aware of what is possible. What do you do about the poor, elderly and handicapped that live in these regions???? What do you do about building codes?
Who carries the costs of making these areas safer?

As the population continues to increase in vulnerable zones, especially, urban areas the natural hazards when they occur --- and they will--- will be associated with disasters. So whether it is 2011 or 2012 or 2020 we can expect more damage and more fatalities in hazardous zones unless we begin to respect the power of these hazards and the lack of flexibility that we really have in dealing with these hazards of mother Earth.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

What greenhouse gases (CO2) are not!!!!

  1. Visible with the naked eye from an old car -- NOPE (probably black soot)
  2. Funny smell from the tail pipe -- NOPE (other potentially harmful gases)
  3. Can kill you if you have the car running in the garage -- NOPE (that is carbon monoxide -CO)
  4. Causing the Ozone hole -- NOPE (those are CFCs)
  5. Only last for a few days and then disappears --NOPE (long lifetime 80-200 years) -- The CO2 molecules that we produced by driving today will be around long after we are gone.
HOWEVER -- GREENHOUSE GASES ARE GENERALLY PRODUCED WHENEVER THERE IS COMBUSTION (driving, heating our homes, production of electricity from non-nuclear plants).

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Slowing down on the HIghway could save more than your life

Driving up to Philadelphia today the speed limit said 65 MPH. But folks were blowing by me like I was walking in the latest, greatest SUV and nice sport cars. For some reason, the word limit doesn't make much sense to us on the highway. It does when we see credit card limit (because we get the reject and have that embarrassed look at Best Buys). Going much faster than the speed limit means a possible ticket, and also a possible accident. But it seems as if folks don't realize that as you increase your speed you burn more gas. More gas means less efficiency and a faster trip to the gas station. It means more oil must be consumed from overseas and increases our dependency on oil. Unfortunately, it also means a bigger greenhouse gas footprint. While we can't see the CO2 being emitted from our tailpipes it is still being emitted. The continued increase in greenhouse gas emission it going to put the burden on your kids, grandkids and great grandkids.

So slowing down means conservation, less dependency of foreign oil, a reduced greenhouse gas footprint, few tickets, a better chance of reaching home safely which ultimately will increase your chances of survival now and creating a more sustainable world for those that follow us after we leave this beautiful planet.

Climate Change at Howard University

All around us, there are indications of changes in natural and physical systems. Some of these changes are slowly creeping while others moving at a rather rapid rate. Changes may be occurring in areas where most of us have the least access to: Polar regions, tropical rain forest, oceans and even Deserts. We have a responsibility to engage students of all disciplines to become aware of the changes and then to become responsible stakeholders on where we are taking the planet. This need, is especially needed at Minority serving institutes where disciplines are often very structured and in silos. What is coming will require all disciplines to be connected in some fashion. Public Policy which is often missing in many MSIs is required to grapple with the intersection of science, policy, development and sustainability.