Last night at 7:30 PM TS Emily was officially named for the disturbance in the tropics. The hurricane hunters had identified a well defined disturbance and it was to the east of the Island. I believe that they did, but was it one of multiple vortices that were spinning off the main system?? I believe that it was and immediately all concerns went to what was happening to the north of the system.
However, I do not believe that the real center was identified because if it had been, it should not still be raining in St. Lucia with is closer to 14 N and far to the east of where the system would be. Based on satellite pictures from early this morning the storm had reorganized to the east of the islands and dumped significant amounts of rain on most of the windward Islands. So hurricane genesis is difficult and with one plane investigating a large area is is very difficult.
This morning there is dry air to the north which may be the reason why the TS Emily looks asymmetric with no rain bands to the north. Most of the models are keeping TS Emily as a weak tropical storm and the GFS is actually has it degenerating to a weak easterly wave. However, it the models are using last nights fix for the location of the storm then they could all be biased also.
Caption: Dry air to the North of TS Emily (denoted in orange)At any rate, even if it remains a tropical storm and the path takes it over Haiti it could be damaging to the people living in the tent cities. The next 24-48 hours will determine how much danger the people of Haiti will be in. The system still appears to be healthy this morning and could strengthen as the day goes on. Hopefully the flooding was not so bad in the islands last night and this morning.
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