Well another threat to the Caribbean exist today. Thus far the cyclones have all been tropical storms with the models having trouble with their intensity. However as we continue to roll into late August and September, the water temperatures will warm lagging behind the air temperatures. But the lastest disturbance looks nasty and the global models are all forecasting it to become a significant hurricane. The tracks vary from crossing Haiti to Cuba with an eventual track towards Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. Many models are forecasting it to strengthen rapidly once it crosses the leeward Islands, but I suspect that they will catch some very bad weather over the next 48 hours.
Hey its August 20 and we are at storm name Harvey. My friends and colleagues in Cape Verde were under the influence of a strong wave today. It may also develop -- but watch out for 3-4 days from now with a very strong wave is forecast to cross Dakar and roll into Cape Verde. Looks like its getting busy out there. Next 15-20 days will tell us a lot about the 2011 hurricane season.
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