...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

 

This morning the entire east coast is on alert for possibly the storm of this century, even worst 

than Irene or Floyd of the 1990s.  This storm is going to make a hard left turn sometime in the next 36 hours and slam into the coast of NJ or Northern Delaware.  Even Maryland is not out of the question.  Unlike past hurricanes, this one is more like a northeaster that will impact areas from Washington to NYC for approximately 2 days. 

Significant power loss is expected for millions, dangerous storm surge and contamination of water.

Beginning tonight through late Tuesday evening, many if not most areas between NYC and Washington will see sustained winds of 30+ miles per hour.  A half foot to 1 foot of rain water will fall in many areas making roads non-passable, flooding homes and causing rivers to rise.   Because of the complexity of urban, rural and the natural systems it is impossible to know exactly where the blind-spots are at.  In the next 6-12 hours people in affected areas should make sure that:

1.)  They know where to go if flooding or infrastructure failure should occur (shelters).

2.)  Charge up all devices if you do not have a generator and limit your talking once the storm begins 

so that you can make emergency calls if possible for help or to briefly check on loved ones.  No times for long conversation.

3.)  Write down all important phone numbers in a notebook that you keep somewhere so that you can contact people.

4.)  Have a battery powered radio to keep up with news if electricity should go down.

5.) Have your car filled with gas and have cash on hand in the ATMs are not available.

6.)  Store tap water if your water system becomes contaminated for drinking and cooking.

7.) Make sure that you have non-perishable food for 2-4 days (peanut butter, Jelly, canned fish, Granola bars, crackers......)  

8.) All your important documents are stored in a dry safe area.

9.)  Check with all your people Tonight before the situation goes downhill.

10.)  If you have elderly friends, relatives or parents, please make special provisions for them now.  Do not let them stay alone.

11.)  If you live near many large or old trees -- move your car and think about sleeping on the lowest level tomorrow night as the strongest winds are likely between 8 PM tomorrow night (Monday)  and Midnight on Tuesday.

12.) Stay off the roads when the winds are strongest and rain is falling.  Flooding could be anywhere along with falling trees   Do no hang outside to try to experience Sandy---flying objects, falling trees will take you out!!

If you live in coastal areas, please pay attention to the authorities and be ready to evacuate if called upon.  

Remember, use your common sense and don't panic.     Call 911 if you are in a serious situation -- don't try to ride it out.  

Will Sandy upstage Mitt and Barack??

As the race for who becomes president of the United States of America comes to a close there are many issues on the table.  There are gallop polls of who will win, there are likely votes and independents who may swing the race one way or the other.  But tonight there is another factor to consider and her name is Sandy....Hurricane Sandy that is.  As she make landfall in Cuba after an earlier landfall in Jamaica earlier today the questions is will she miss the US or not? 

Earlier this week, the answer was a definitive miss on the US east coast.  But the European medium range forecast began taking the Sandy out to sea but re-curving it back towards the US east Coast.
The problem with outliers is that they do not always make sense but you can't ignore them.  Today
most of the models (GFS, Canadian, Navy and European models) are bringing Sandy back towards
the East Coast.

There is a large amount of uncertainty, but landfall could happen as early as Monday with deteriorating weather conditions along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic beginning as early as Saturday
evening.  Sandy will be a big storm with a large wind field.  If the ECMWF model holds true, much
of the East Coast could experience significant damage -- more than Hurricane Irene in 2011. Landfall could be anywhere from VA to Maine. 

Even with the uncertainty, it is not too early to begin to look at where your valuables are located.   Batteries and flashlights are a must.  The strength of the storm should not lead evacuations except maybe along coastal zones where flooding may be a serious problem.  But electricity remains vulnerable if the storm comes up the coast.

While Barack and Mitt continue their race to the finish line make sure that you are ready to race
to the store if necessary. 

While neither candidate mentioned climate change in their debates, there is one cut that is off limits:  FEMA 

Be Safe and stay informed this weekend!!

No Presidental debates around climate change

The third and final Presidential debate is finally here.   I have been disappointed in the first two debates that the topic of climate change has never come up.  In the last debate there were many points about gas prices, coal, oil, pipelines,  and making America energy dependent.  All of that is well and fine, but let face the truth -- we need a realistic view of what is happening.  These has not been any remarks or comments about how we will get carbon emissions under control because of the warming climate.  Presidential candidate Romney probably doesn't truly believe in anthropogenic climate change and President Obama is under pressure to shift position and talk about drilling and conventional energy production and less about renewable energy. 

Carbon emission have risen steeply over the last 4 decades, while the rate warming of the planet has also increased over the same time.  Carbon emissions go hand in hand with economic growth.  The problem is that we are playing with a climate system that we don't fully understand and probably never will.  When scientists talk about "dangerous climate change" this is not given serious consideration in the United States because we feel that we are the most powerful nation on Earth.  Well that may be true militarily and economically but sorry, we are no match for nature.  Wildfires, hurricanes, drought, tornadoes, heat waves and flooding care nothing about borders or leaders. 

Over the next three decades, leader and people of the world must develop a policy and transform economies to reduce carbon emissions -- otherwise it will have to done more drastically in the middle 21st century. Most of us say "so what, I am just trying to make it today."  True that, but look in the eyes of your children or grandchildren and make that statement.  You will not be here to see what they have to face and they will have to address climate change head on.  The signs are all around us, but we don't seem to pay attention.  Somehow we think that the problem will go away.

This year, the Arctic Sea Ice coverage reached its lowest values.  Crazy thing is that we are watching this happening and companies are thinking about how to exploit and open Arctic.  Messing with fire...

Arctic Sea Ice October 15, 2012.  Purple line is Median value

There are feed-backs and switches in the climate system that no even the best scientist or models can provide insights on how they will change.  The past has shown us that, without human intervention, the climate system (especially ice and water) can behave in a non-predictable manner. 

Within 24 hours, the 19th named tropical cyclone (Tony) is likely to form over the Tropical Atlantic.  Tonight, Tropical Storm Sandy is in the Caribbean and likely to affect Jamaica, Haiti, the Bahamas and possibly parts of the United States over the next few days.  The normal number of tropical systems is approximately 10-11, but recent years have averaged many more than this.  There is no conclusive proof from observations that the increase in the number of tropical storms are linked to climate change, but we should be wary of what we are witnessing. 

Tropical Storm Sandy (Monday October 22nd over the Caribbean)

The discussion on climate change needs to come to the forefront now.  If not now, when -- 2016, 2020, 2024.  We are on an unsustainable path with it comes to carbon emissions and future climate change.  We must slow down our emissions or else.  This is not only about American Jobs, it is about humanity and the future of our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren no matter where they inhabit the Earth.