So will this be the science fiction movie -- IRENE takes the East Coast by Force??

So, once again, Mother nature teaches us a thing or two. Yesterday, Hurricane Irene was forecast to to go west and pass over the Dominican Republic or Haiti. However, a strange thing happened along the way-- It went north and crossed over Puerto Rico knocking out power to half of the country. That in turned changed by the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. Why??

If Hurricane Irene had gone across the Dominican Republic- the mountains would have weakened it. As it turns it turns out, Irene has not weakened and the track is carrying it up the East Coast. The models (global and mesoscale) are converging on this solution.

But what if some of these model solutions are correct --

Hurricane Irene will be powerful Category 3 that roars into the Carolinas but then hugs the coast spreading havoc up the coastline and then making a second landfall in NYC???? Does this seem like a crazy scenario??

Well hurricane have made landfall on Long-Island and also struck NYC. Unfortunately, nature does not know that these are modern cities where people feel comfortable. It also does not know that tens of millions of people live along the coastline where they drive the US economy.

The real danger is that is virtually impossible to evacuate DC, Philly, NYC, Boston. There is not enough road. In addition, our infrastructure has not been tested for many years now and we are more connected -- by phone towers, power lines, gas lines -- a failure of one system impacts other systems and many people all at once. So while I hope that scenario does not play out, we should accept that we are not flexible and probably not prepared for the worst case scenario. In a bad scenario, those who have less will lose the most. Those who are most vulnerable will lose the most.

Even if climate change were never to happen, it is an eventuality that a strong hurricane will one day hit a major population center. The urbanization will not work in our favor. I think that Hurricane Rita taught us that in 2005.

In the meantime, stay aware of the threat and be ready to go outside of your comfort zone if it is required. That may mean stocking up on canned items and water even if this is not the worst case scenario. Make a list of all of those people that you might have to help or at least make sure that they are safe. Make a list of all of those important items that you might need to take with you (prescriptions, cash, passports, birth certificates, bank account numbers) It never hurts to be prepared.