Tranquility

Tranquility
Sunset in a Senegalese Village

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Rewriting the narrative of one's life and maybe the World

When looking at the news, talking to our friends or even examining our own lives we find and see places of trauma, physical, mental and emotional pain and victims.  The projection in the news makes us often feel that that the World is a bad place with bad people.  But all things have a beginning which goes back to each and every single individual.  What is it inside of each of us that that needs to be addressed.

I believe that whatever is begin observed at the larger scale (news) has its microscopic companion within our heart and thoughts.  Consequently, a large portion of the human race feels as if they live a lonely, unloved and unfilled existence every day.  The individual does not feel a sense of purpose and they wander the earth suppressing that very powerful feeling.  Unfortunately, the voice inside of the head, known as the ego will tell us this story every day trapping us in an endless loop and we are hoping that someone or something (money, a new car, fame or a good job) will change this story.  The bad news is that no one or nothing is going to change this story.

The story in the head is changed by the storyteller through rewriting one's narrative about the life that you live.   The narrative is changed through forgiveness, kindness to yourself and love.  The narrative is changed from what "I" need to what gifts I have to offer to others.  The narrative changes from being lonely and not understood to being connected to life, people and God.  The narrative moves from gloom of the past, to the hope that you can contribute however and whenever called upon.  Your job is to find the buried treasures within yourself, developed them to their potential and share them.

This does not mean that if you have hurt from the past that you should not seek help in addressing those issues.  You must do that.  But eventually you will ask yourself now what?   That is the time to begin writing the new script by you the famous author....

The doom and gloom of the daily news will slowly have less of an impact on all of us as we rewrite our story and eventually if we all feel better ourselves.  Eventually the news will have no choice but to change to positive stories because that will be the reality that we have created.

Yes, we will still have poverty, world hunger, disease, climate change but we will also rewrite the narrative on those issues.

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Ebola outbreak raged out of control during the last 10 days --3600 new cases



Over the past 8 weeks, the number of suspected Ebola cases has been steadily rising, especially in Sierra Leone and Liberia, with more than 8000 cases being suspected on October 1st.  



Weekly Suspected cases in the three countries (source: WHO)


However, during the past week, the number of reported (suspected) Ebola cases significantly increased by more than 3600 cases between October 22 and October 31 based on WHO data.
Weekly data shows while the number of new cases are increasing in Guinea, it cannot be compared to what is happening in Sierra Leone and Liberia.



Number of suspected Ebola Cases in Guinea (Source:WHO)


Number of suspected Ebola Cases in Liberia (Source: WHO)


Number of suspected Ebola Cases in Sierra Leone (Source: WHO)

The large increases in Ebola cases have occurred in both Sierra Leone and Liberia over the last 10 days.  Either this is due to better reporting or higher infection rates.  Either way this is a very big change and we should all be worried about what is happening in both countries.  This is a humanitarian crisis and likely to destabilize both countries and the region in general.   


Number of new suspected cases versus the prior week for all three countries (Source: WHO)


Based on the data, there have been 300-500 new cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia since October 1st.  However last week the number of new suspected cases jumped from 376 in the prior week to 1870 on October 31st in Liberia .


Total # of new cases in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone relative to the prior week (Source: WHO)



The new cases jumped from 454 to 1632 new cases in Sierra Leone.  This two countries are responsible for the tripling of cases between October 22 to October 31.  The World needs to really come together to address this situation immediately.  So many families are being destroyed, so many young people will become orphans and so many people are at risk.  The time to act is NOW!!


Thursday, October 16, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo to Strike Bermuda on Friday


hurricane Gonzalo October 16, 2014 at 545 AM EST



This morning hurricane Gonzalo is a category 4 storm with winds of 140 MPH and expected to move over Bermuda in the next 36-48 hours.  Hurricane warnings are up for Bermuda

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.
NHC official track for Hurricane Gonzalo

Depending on where the storm passes Bermuda, the country may experience both a strong storm surge and winds which may bring significant damage to the country.  The current projection is the the storm will pass over or just to the left of the island. Passage to left of the Island would produce the strongest winds and most likely a higher surge.  However looking at the elevation map of Bermuda there appears to be some level of protection from the surge.  The two largest cities (Hamilton and St. George) are likely to be spared damage from surge because of their positions.
Topographic map of Bermuda (source Wikipedia)


However, there is still likely to be damage if hurricane Gonzalo passes over Bermuda as a major hurricane.    Because Bermuda is a tourist location, many of the assets around this industry may suffer some degree of damage. The picture below suggest that with the mix of land and sea that damage is likely by both wind and waves even if there is blockage by mountains in the south.

Bermuda (source Wikipedia)

Numerous hurricanes have come close to Bermuda in the past with most causing little or no damage.  However in 2003, Hurricane Fabian passed very close to Bermuda causing an estimated 300 million dollars in damage.  Maximum sustained winds of 120 MPH were noted.
Track of Hurricane Fabian September 2003 

Visible Image of Hurricane Fabian September 2003

Fabian passed just to the west of Bermuda and it is very possible that hurricane Gonzalo may have also have a similar path.


The next 24-36 hours will be a very tense time for the people of Bermuda.  Let's hope and pray that they are prepared for this significant hazard.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Rapid Intensification for Hurricane Ganzalo -- may deal Bermuda a blow later this week




Hurricane Gonzalo at approximately 5:15 AM EST October 14th 


Overnight Tropical Cyclone went from being a minimum category 1 hurricane (85 MPH winds at 11 PM) and is now on the verge of being a major hurricane.  Maximum Sustained winds of 110 mph are estimated (5 AM) and further strengthening is likely today.  Hurricane Gonzalo is in a weak shear environment making development likely.   Current forecast suggest that Gonzalo may have winds of 130 MPH in 36 hours bringing it to near Category 4 status.  While the storm is currently out over the ocean and not threatening any land areas, the forecast track will take the hurricane Gonzalo close to Bermuda later on this week in into the weekend.  Even if the storm is moving rapidly as a major hurricane (3 or higher) it may still have a negative impact  on the infrastructure of Bermuda.  This late season hurricane is worth watching as its undergone rapid intensification over the last day which the best hurricane models have trouble dealing with.


Current Track for Hurricane Gonzalo (Tuesday October 15th)

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Late Season Hurricane Surge in the Atlantic


2014 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 

With an evolving El Nino during the summer season, below normal hurricane activity had been forecasted for the Atlantic ocean basin.   A late start to the wet season in West Africa and continuous surges of Saharan dust provided poor environmental conditions in the Eastern and Central Atlantic Ocean Basins during August and September.  While I expected the Saharan Air Layer to weaken in late August, it never did.   We had 4 hurricanes (One being a major hurricane) and 1 tropical storm.

The Pacific Ocean basin on the other hand has been very active with numerous cyclones in the Eastern, Central and Western basins.  

2014 Eastern Pacific Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Odile had a major impact in Mexico impacting resort areas of Mexico such as Cabo San Lucas.
Damage from Tropical Cyclone Odile

By the middle of September, it was assumed that increased wind shear would limit any Atlantic  tropical cyclones.  However, over the last week we have had two tropical disturbances develop over the Atlantic.    Hurricane Fay formed this weekend impacting Bermuda and Tropical Storm  Gonzalo approaching the Windward Islands.


NHC Active Tropical Cyclones (Sunday Oct. 12)





Track of Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to intensify over the next few days and tropical storm warnings are up for many of the Caribbean nations including Puerto Rico.  Gonzalo may become a major hurricane in a few days when it is out over the open Atlantic.   So you never know, but one thing that is certain, is that Saharan dust intensity has weakened considerably over last week giving tropical cyclones a better chance to develop.

Saharan Air or lack of it (Sunday October 12)


The Atlantic Tropical Season is almost over, but not yet.  Don't forget that Hurricane Sandy came up the East coast in late October causing major damage and loss of life.   Even if it is an El Nino year, the hurricane season is not officially over until November 30th.  Don't be caught off guard.






Tuesday, August 12, 2014

The People's Climate March - September 21st -- Community and HBCU involvement- WE NEED STUDENTS AND FACULTY TO REPRESENT

Next month up to 1,000,000 people will march in New York City to put pressure on leaders around the world to address anthropogenic climate change (http://peoplesclimate.org/march/)



Each day, humanity is pushing the Earth's climate system in such a manner as to change the chemical composition of the atmosphere which is warming the planet.  If you were born at the time when the declaration of independence was signed, the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations were probably 280 parts per million (ppm).

1776 - 280 PPM



If you were born when the emancipation proclamation was signed in 1863, allowing many of my ancestors to hear the word freedom after centuries of enslavement the atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 290 ppm.
1863 - 290 PPM


Nearly 100 years later, if you were born when the Civil Rights law was enacted in 1964, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 320 ppm.
1964 - 320 PPM


If you were born during 1984 when Michael Jackson gave the We ARE the WORLD concert to help with the severe drought across West Africa, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 344 ppm
1984-344 PPM



If you were born the year when President Obama was elected in 2008, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 385 ppm

2008 - 385 PPM
Today, August 12, 2014 the atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 398-400 ppm.  Notice that rate  CO2 concentrations are increasing faster now than in the past, because CO2 emissions rapidly increased from very low values prior  to the industrial revolution increasing to 1 billion metric tonnes after 1900 to nearly than 8 billion metric tonnes (14-16 trillion lbs) of CO2 today which are emitted annually around the globe.

We are dealing global problem that each and everyone one of us contributes to in one way or another.  If we do not level off the amounts of CO2 through policymaking then our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren, no matter what race, gender, economic class, ethnicity are going to pay the price for what we do today.

My two grandkids... Nasir and Zoe if they are blessed to reach the tender age of 88 and 87 would should expect CO2 concentrations to be 500 ppm if there were actions to mitigate atmospheric CO2 by the generations before them the subsequent ones.  If there are limited actions, they should expect CO2 concentrations of 600-900 ppm.

Nasir - 2100 500-900 PPM

Zoe - 2100 500-900 PPM


We can't let that happen, because the impacts are going to be critical to the billions of people around the world -- a much warmer planet, loss of alpine glaciers, icesheets and sea ice,higher sea level (1-3 feet higher), regional droughts and flooding, threats to food security and water, new climate related diseases, stronger hurricanes. This is our moment in time to make a difference.

Dr. Marshall Shepherd, friend, colleague and past president of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has written a number of articles in Ebony Magazine laying out the position that African American are vulnerable to climate change.
Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Past AMS President


Dr. Shepherd has also given a TED talk about climate change that I would recommend that everyone take a look at.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O019WPJ2Kjs


The African American community has a stake in what happens in the future and people who blow off climate change have forgotten about how historical disparities are going to creep into this situation. We need to continue to talk up this topic.

http://www.ebony.com/news-views/blacks-dont-care-about-climate-change-fact-or-fiction#axzz3ADSZkr4v


So, we are mobilizing and organizing young people from HBCUs to participate in the March on September 21st.  We are anticipating that buses will be available for students and community folks to
ride up to New York.  HBCUs from the south are organizing, but those from Maryland, DC and Virginia need to represent.  Howard, Hampton, UDC, Coppin, Bowie State, Morgan State, UMES, Virginia Union, Norfolk State, we need you to get your young people out to March.  It is their fate and that of the global village that hangs in the balance!!

Sunday, August 10, 2014

First Rains in Dakar on August 5th!! -- African Easterly Waves picking up

Finally the first rains fell on Tuesday afternoon and evening in Dakar!!  The first rains should have begun in late June but did not.  We have another 5-6 weeks of rainy season left for the country and need abundant rain for farmers to post decent yields.  Overall conditions are not looking good for daily rainfall, but there are some positive events on the horizon.  In particular, the regular 3-5 African Easterly Waves (AEWs) have been picking up, this week.  One wave passed to the south of Senegal yesterday but was not able to produce any significant rain in Senegal because too much dry air is in place.  This first wave may develop into a tropical disturbance later this week over the Eastern and Central Atlantic.  The atmospheric sounding from today, suggest very strong winds (50 knots) at 10000-12000 feet which provides a vorticity sources (spin) to areas of the south.
Atmospheric Sounding from Dakar, Senegal on August 10, 2014





The dry air, which has its source over the Sahara provides and environment which is very stable and not good for thunderstorm development.   Eventually thunderstorms with AEWs to fall apart.   An example is below which shows how the storms dissipate over Senegal once disturbance enters.




The lack of precipitation is not a bad thing because the disturbances moistens the air providing a subsequent wave with a better chance of producing rain.   A second AEW over Mali today will likely bring rains to Senegal  tonight and tomorrow and this one also has the possibility of developing into a Eastern or Central Atlantic.
Precipitation Rates over West Africa, 8 PM Local August 10 2014 (heavy rain in Red)

A third wave is expected to develop over Nigeria tomorrow.

WRF Forecast at 10,000 ft  for Monday August 11



While it is likely that Senegal will have below normal rainfall this year, if the waves line up over the next 2-3 weeks, there may be abundant rain and the dry winds from the north may subside leading to an increase in local rains.    We have to hope for the best at this point as there another 30 days left in the rainy season.


Sunday, August 3, 2014

Drought like conditions over Senegal and the Cape Verde Season for hurricanes

The evolution of El Nino during the spring and summer season suggested that rainfall would be below normal for much of the Sahel (the region just to the south of the Sahara).  During the month of June, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and several dust events were evident over the region.    Since 2005, the Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics-Simeon Fongang at Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar Senegal has partnered with Howard University to measure rainfall within 100 km of Dakar at nearly 40 villages.

Rain gauge at a village in Senegal
Once again this year during the middle of June the students went to the villages to install the rain gauges before the start of the wet season which begins in late June.  However, no rain had fallen at the end of June which seemed strange but not out of the norm.  Considering that the wet season only last for 3.5 months (June, July, August through mid september), it is critically important that any delay in rainfall only last for 1-2 weeks.

However, we are at the start of August, which is the wettest month of the year and only a negligible amount of rainfall has fallen at Dakar.

90 day accumulated rainfall at Dakar Senegal



Overall the amount of daily convection on any given evening has been smaller than normal over the Sahelian region.  For example tonight, there are only small areas of convection, which is not typical during this time of year.
EUMETSAT -Satellite Based Rain Rates over West Africa 8/4/14 at 12:30 AM GMT



Many of the weather systems - known as mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), such as the one that brought down flight 5017 (and linked to TS Bertha) are long-lived and travel across the continent.  They are organized by the African Easterly Jet at 10000 feet.    However, this year as these systems have moved towards Senegal, they have weakened and dissipated.   This is due in part to dry, stable air which has been over locations such as Dakar, Senegal since June.  The source of this air is the Sahara and even when large amounts of dust are not found in the atmosphere, the dry, stable air is still there.   We can find this stable air by looking at an atmospheric sounding which is released by balloon twice a day from Dakar, Senegal.

Sounding from 1200 UTC August 3, 2014 from Dakar Senegal
Somewhere between 1500 and 4000 feet, the relative humidity falls from 80 percent to less than 40% making cloud formation very unlikely in this from about 4000 to 15000 feet.   In addition, there is a stable lid near 4000 feet which stops clouds from growing vertically.   In todays sounding, there were also strong winds of 30 knots (35 MPH) which would disrupt clouds from  growing vertically.

It is my hope that this pattern will break soon, because not only is it going to impact farmers (and hence food security) in a major way this year, but also water resources and electricity (hydropower).   Large amounts of rainfall over the Guinea highlands provides river flow for the Senegal and Gambia River but also the large Niger river which is important to many countries.   The Sahelian drought of 1983 and 1984 continued through August creating life-threatening conditions and the migration of millions to urban centers.

During the next 4 weeks, African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are expected to become stronger potentially spawning tropical disturbances in the Eastern Atlantic.  However, it is unclear how many disturbances will form in the Eastern Atlantic with dry air still in place.   The tropical waves may have a much better chance over the Central or Western Atlantic for further development.  There is a AEW that should pass over Senegal in the next 72 hours and hopefully it will bring rain to Senegal.  

The impact of the oceans on the current and future climate of West Africa cannot be understated.  The warming of the Eastern and Central Pacific ocean temperatures have the potential to cause drought in West Africa. 

Sea Surface temperature anomalies 


Future warming of the World's oceans have the potential to create conditions similar to El Nino based on Global and Regional model projections in the mid to late 21st century.  The only way to reduce any possibility of harming future generations in West Africa is to limit global warming through reductions in greenhouse gases.  We need inter-generational policy.  President Obama has started the process.

UPDATE ON TS BERTHA 
Tropical Storm Bertha is now north of the Bahamas and still moving towards the northwest.  Most of the weather models are carrying Bertha to the east of the US and west of Bermuda.   However, there are some global models that are carrying it closer to the US as of this evening. The intensity of the TS Bertha is expected to increase, potentially becoming a minimum hurricane in a few days as the vertical wind shear begins to relax.  The latest satellite images show it becoming more organized.

Tropical Storm Bertha at 915 PM EST (August 3rd)

 If you live along coast, please monitor this storm over the next few days, especially as it relates to potential rip currents for the beach going crowd along the US East Coast.   This system has already been linked to the death of 118 in Burkina Faso ten days ago (http://gjenks-climatechangehu.blogspot.com/2014/07/storm-that-downed-air-algerie-5017-may.html), ---please be careful.















Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Storm that downed Air Algerie 5017 may become a tropical storm Bertha this week


Flight path and wreckage site (source: BBC)

The path of 5017 was clearly into the mesoscale convective system.  The latest is that the pilots asked to return back to Ouaga as they probably realized that they could not fly through this storm (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28528174).  It is unclear whether they were in trouble at that point or not.

I have completed additional analysis of this storm.  Based on the analysis the storm was growing in size with the top of the clouds between -50 and -73C which going to be somewhere between 12 and 16 km (39,000-52,500 ft). For planes that fly at altitudes of 39,000 feet, typical temperatures are about -50 to -55C which means that flight 5017 would not have been able to climb above many of the storms.  


Cloud top temperatures at 0000 UTC or 1 hour 17 minutes before 5017 takeoff

As you can see in this picture at midnight (local time), there is a large area of clouds between 200 and 220 Kelvin (-73 to -53C), an hour prior to the flight taking off.  The plane should have been diverted to the west of the storm or potentially east, but the forecasters may have seen thunderstorms to the east near the Mali, Niger border and opted not to send them that direction.  Of course sending them directly into the storm makes absolutely not sense.

Cloud top temperatures at 0100 UTC 17 minutes before 5017 takeoff.

At 0100 (local time) we see that there has not been much movement in the storms position prior to takeoff, which should have definitely prompted a delay or a diversion to the west of the storm.  Given the large area of cold cloud temperatures, this was a large area of thunderstorms, which without a weather radar in the northern part of the country, could not have been easily maneuvered through  by Air Traffic Control.  While the aircraft does a radar in the nose of the plane, it only sees nearby thunderstorms.  

Cloud top temperatures at 0200, 10 minutes after contact with flight 5017 is lost

By 0200 UTC, the area of cold clouds have moved east and expanded.  This is 10 minutes after radar contact was lost.  Given where the crash site occurred, it is possible that the plane made it through much of the system, but that potentially there was some damage or maybe a buildup of super-cooled water on the pitot tubes.  The exact cause will be known by black boxes.  RIP 5017 passengers and crew.

However, the story does not end there.  Normally, such mesoscale convective systems (MCS) are long-lived and may continue for another thousand miles.  In this case, that is the story of this particular MCS.  Throughout the day, the system continue to grow and evolve.  It appeared to decay near Guinea, but really did not and the convection was regenerated as it left the coast.   

 Satellite picture of the convection linked to flight 5017 for July 24-July 27 (3 hours intervals)


The speed of the MCS suggests that it was not moving with an African Easterly wave but faster. It is possible that a mid-level circulation was generated in the organized convection.  Finally, the Guinea highlands have been known as a region where spin can be generated when organized convection is cross it over and moving over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.


Once the convection made it to the central Atlantic, it appears it linked up with the inter-tropical convergence zone or a monsoon trough and the convection was reinvigorated.     It is possible that the convection itself may have generated spin--- in what is known as a bottom-up formation of tropical cyclones over the ocean.  The following movie shows how the convection evolved in Atlantic on July 27 and 28th.

Satellite picture of the convection linked to flight 5017 for July 24-July 27 (3 hours intervals)


This morning the system is not looking strong but there is a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days.

Visible Image Tropical disturbance July 30, 1445 UTC (1045 EST) 

The deep thunderstorms (convection) are scarce this morning and the low level center is exposed.  However, the overall environmental conditions are favorable for further development.   Assuming that this system survives, the current model tracks are taking the system into the Northern Caribbean by this weekend. It is too early to determine if this system will impact the US as it needs to form first.


Potential track of the current Tropical Disturbance (Invest 93) based on weather models


In summary, this was a unique tropical disturbance whose origins go back to the West Africa and is notable because of the tragic situation associated with mesoscale convective system over Burkina Faso.  The future of the system remains unclear but the genesis of tropical depression is possible over the next  day with additional development into Tropical Storm Bertha is possible later in the week.

Even though we are anticipating a lower than normal number of Atlantic tropical cyclones, it is virtually impossible to know which tropical disturbance may ultimately develop into a tropical cyclone.  Make sure that you remain aware and have your emergency preparation plan in place if you live in coastal areas.


Friday, July 25, 2014

Based on wreckage location - Air Algerie impacted by a mesoscale convective system



Crash Site of Air Algerie 5017 near the Burkina Faso/Mali Border 


Based on where the flight crashed today (Northern Burkina Faso/Southern Mali), it seems that the mesoscale convective system which had been in northern Burkina Faso may have played a major role in the accident.  The path of the aircraft seems 

Satellite Precipitation rate image at 0145 UTC Thursday morning (July 24)
to have been across the mesoscale convective system which was moving to the west.  The only way to avoid it would have bee to fly to the west or to the east around the storm, which would increase the travel time but would have been much safer.

This particular storm definitely had lightning with it, and as I stated in the earlier blog that it probably had significant amounts of ice and strong vertical updrafts.  Another danger is super-cooled liquid water.  Water normally freezes at 32F but it is possible for water in thunderstorms to remain as liquid well below 32F to nearly -40F.   The problem is that if this water should land on a piece of metal it will immediately freeze and cause ice to build up.   This is one important reason why to avoid deep thunderstorms.

A very important instrument on all planes is the pitot tube, which you often see if you look closely at aircraft.
Pitot Tube



 It provides important information about airspeed and how fast the plane is going.  If this instrument were get supercooled water on it and ice were to build up, it would very likely give a false sense of how fast the plane is going.  This is what happened in the case of several years ago (2009) when an Air France Jet flew into thunderstorms when traveling from Brazil to France.  The pilots did not know how fast the plane was going, and the plane (Airbus 330)  stalled and then fell some 35,000-39,000 feet to the ocean surface.  This has happened on a number of aircraft encountering thunderstorms.
http://www.aviationtoday.com/regions/usa/More-Pitot-Tube-Incidents-Revealed_72414.html#.U9LKRYBdUjA




Pitot Tube on a commercial jet

Organized West African Mesoscale Convective systems, grow very deep (up to 50,000 ft) and so they may impossible to fly over in a commercial jet.  Because they have lots of lightning, ice, strong updrafts and potentially supercooled water they should be avoided at all cost.  I am not sure why this plane was given a flight path which took it right into the heart of one of these systems as I am sure that forecasters were aware of it.  Clearly the pilots tried to deviate but maybe did not understand the largeness of this system and did not deviate far enough.    The Black box will probably yield useful information about what went wrong, but I feel very sad that the passengers had to encounter such a weather system.

It is quite a paradox, given that the rain has been below normal in many areas of West Africa and the types of systems that probably downed this plane are the ones that give life saving rains to the farmers in West Africa.  Except there have not been many of them this year -- thus far, with cities such as Dakar not having received any rain as of yet.

Again, the technology to avoid such weather hazards currently exist but is not deployed in a meaningful way in West Africa.  


Addition at 905 PM
There was discussion about a dust storm in the region.  However, dust will be located much closer to the ground and would definitely be located at less than 15,000 feet.  It seems improbable that dust was the cause of the crash unless the pilots were flying very low and dust somehow caused their engines to stall.  The black box will provide the best evidence based on their altitude.






Thursday, July 24, 2014

Did Weather play a role in the crash of Flight 5017 Today??



Flight Path of 5017 from Ouga to Algiers (Source: Chicago Tribune)

Last night around 9:50 PM Eastern Standard Time, Flight 5017 which departed from the capital of Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou (or sometimes called Ouga) some 50 minutes earlier lost contact with
Air Traffic Control Radar as it travelled to Algeria.    Tonight the wreckage was found in Mali but the exact location seems to be somewhat confusing.  Daylight will come up again in 4-5 hours and an exact determination will be known.  One thing that is known is that the pilot as to divert from some bad weather that was occurring along the flight path.

Satellite images indeed show heavy weather in Northern Burkina Faso and Southern Mali which would have caused the plane to deviate.  However, the area of bad weather, based on cloud top temperatures and rain rates was not very large and should have easily been avoided based on the forecast from the Capital.

1 AM satellite image of Convective System to the Northeast of Ouga.

Precipitation estimates show the heaviest rainfall falling near the cloud cluster for the next hours time.
EUMETSAT Rain rate estimates at 115 UTC




At 1:30 AM and145 AM  the area of heavy rain is still found over Northern Burkina Faso and Southern Mali.  A second area of lighter convection is found over the area where the plane went down at this time.



EUMETSAT 130 and 145 AM identified areas of heavy Precipitation.


By 200 AM, the only significant area of precipitation should have been south of the plane wreckage site but with areas of lighter precipitation near the wreckage site.


0200 UTC (2AM) EUMETSAT precipitation patterns.

I would have to assume that if there had been contact at 150 AM, that the pilot should have diverted around the area and maybe passed the area of heavy thunderstorms.  This is certainly true if the wreckage is found closer to the Algerian border.  I have looked at winds and vertical shear over the area and the winds were not that strong (not out of the ordinary) and the vertical wind shear was very light at the time.   

Even though the thunderstorms (convection) over Eastern Mali looks relatively weak, it does appear to be associated with lightning based on the WWLLN (University of Washington) ground based systems.  Lightning occurs in most of the organized convective systems, because we believe that desert dust serves as a good source of ice nuclei which makes the top of the thunderstorms ice filled, separated from liquid or mixed (liquid/ice) parts of the thunderstorm below.  This creates charge separation which brings about lightning.  

WWLLN lightning  activity between 0100-0200 UTC

WWLLN lightning between 0200-0300 UTC


Based on the WWLLN data, there was lightning along the original path and also in eastern Mali.  So it is possible that while the areas of rain appear light, they may have been stronger than expected because lightning is an indicator of 
convective activity and updrafts (which pilots always want to avoid).   The other possibility is that the plane was struck by lightning, leading to some type of systems failure or a possible breach (such as a door) leading to decompression of the plane.  


The area of strong thunderstorms in Burkina Faso were large and strong and so hopefully the pilot avoided this area.  I would have to assume that flying though this initial areas would have posed a significant threat to the aircraft, with lightning, severe turbulence and possible mechanical failure.  However,  in the event that it was avoided, the area of weaker thunderstorms in Eastern Mali may have been the cause of the downed aircraft through lightning or a some rogue updrafts.  

Addressing Weather Hazards in West Africa 

The lack of weather observations, including radars, put many people in harms way each wet season.  The numbers of weather related fatalities in West Africa remain unknown at present.   There is currently the satellite system along with software that could greatly empower forecasters to protect the general population and commercial transportation.  While the number of weather related fatalities cannot be brought to zero it can be greatly reduced.  Why this has not happened is unclear to me but the environment can be monitored and weather hazards can predicted. 


The types of weather systems (mesoscale convective systems) are long-lived and difficult to predict with our currently models but once they form their lifetime can be easily monitored.  For example the system over Burkina Faso at 0200 this morning was transformed to a much larger system by this evening impacting many more people.  As of 10 PM, the system is coming to an end in its lifecycle over Guinea. 

Thursday 645 PM Mature Mesoscale Convective System evolved from the 1 AM system


While Satellites will help us in monitoring West African convective systems, we must improve our understanding through measurements and increase the observation system in each country.  This will provide the nowcasting capacity which will give forecasters the proper tools to monitor  fast moving systems.  Lightning data at 15 minute intervals which the UK Met service has said it will provide to all Meteorological Services should be utilized for the protection of life and property.

Eventually, the recovery of the black box will provide the answers to what happened today.  While it cannot bring the loved ones back to their families it may provide guidance on if weather played a big role in the crash and if so how future weather related accidents can be avoided.  May the 116 souls of flight 5017 rest in peace.