A case study of Haiti and TS Emily --- Model Uncertainty or a stroke of divine intervention

Tropical Storm Emily while forgotten remains an enigma. First, this was a storm that played havoc with intensity forecast and also location. The most amazing piece of the story is with Haiti. The storm had been slowly moving towards Haiti with our worst fears coming to mind. However, we were told that there were 12,000 UN peacekeepers were ready to help those living in flood-prone areas where people were living in tent cities. The rain was heavy to the neighboring Dominican Republic just to the east.

But not so fast. A strange things happened along the way. The tropical storm completely dissipated just before hitting Haiti. Crazy thing is that is regenerated to the north of Cuba a day or so later. So what in the world ...... Well this was a storm that was a mess to forecast at any rate. There were difficulties in figuring out the real location was at as soon as it came into the Caribbean Sea. When it was forecast to turn north it didn't. This one will be a case that scientists will try to simulate to see what happened. On the other hand, some would say that it was divine intervention. If it was I say Thanks to God because it was looking very bad for heavy life-threatening rains over Haiti.

There are two take away points -- One models that we use are not perfect and although there are right the majority of times, there are still many uncertainties about tropical cyclones. The second takeaway point is that just because an area did not get hit does not mean that you should let your guard down. Those who are vulnerable need to be made less vulnerable and everyone needs to have some degree of preparing if you live in a land-falling zone. The next 8 weeks are when historically most of the tropical cyclones occur.

We have had 7 named storms thus far. This time last year we had 3. We had 19 named storms in 2010. Right now there are significant amounts of dust over the Eastern Atlantic that should keep tropical storms down in that part of the Atlantic. But just because the African Easterly Waves do not immediately form tropical cyclones should not make you think that they are not there. We can track these waves across the the Atlantic and sometime they have organized thunderstorms and sometimes they do not. But if the right conditions should arise, genesis of a tropical cyclone is possible.

So, stay prepared and don't drop your guards.