For the last two weeks or so, the media has provided coverage of what is happening in Somalia. The rains have failed for the last two years, refugees are on the move to Kenya and Ethiopia and maybe tens of thousands have perished because of malnutrition. So what is going on? There are many droughts around the world, yet those in Africa seem to cause famine. Is this some type of bad luck?? I don't think so. Famine is more likely to occur in regions of the world where there is civil war, conflict or a government that has very little capacity to serve its people. It also occurs, where the poverty rate is very high and rain fed agriculture is the norm rather than the exception. In these regions, agriculture is marginal with bumper crops occurring once in a while.
Drought can occur anywhere on the planet, but it seems that in areas that are semi-arid they tend to be more frequent. In some cases, below normal rainfall in these regions can last for more than a decade. Such events cause many farmers to abandon their lands and move to large cities. But if there is civil war or conflict, these situations will normally lead to famine and disaster. The issue about famine, is that is it a slowly occurring event. Many who live on the margins are not seen by the governing body and so they may not even perceive that a disaster is occurring especially if the center of power is located in some large city. Eventually the slowing evolving famine becomes a disaster with many more than expected in dire need and children, the sick, disabled and elderly facing life or death circumstances. Sometimes conflicts within a country will not allow for aid to reach those who need it the most. Sadly enough, the media reports on such events when they are are moving towards their apex and is all seems so sudden.
This brings up a question. Will climate change make drought and famine more likely in the future in Africa. Sadly, I believe it will. Our climate models show that dry spells and heat wave are likely to increase in Africa. While is it possible that governance will begin to turn around and get better, it needs to happen quickly. The waste and corruption often witnessed do not prepare many African nations for natural hazards such as drought and hence the disaster repeats again. The rural communities continue to remain outside the eye of the central government and large cities continue to grow with migrants from the rural areas. The lack of diversity in many economies also do not provide a buffer against drought. Africa must find a way to feed itself and use its resources in a collective manner across political borders. But first, it must recognize that its greatest resources are its people -- contrary to what history books or the developed world might think.
There is one difference about the future famine that may not be obvious -- we will all likely aid in the intensity of future disasters associated with drought in famine. Indirectly, our individual and collective CO2 emissions will help to intensify drought and heat waves in semi-arid and other marginal areas around the world. There is scientific evidence to support the idea that we are responsible for the 1970s-1980s drought in the Sahelian region because of the warming of the Indian ocean which is following the warming of the global ocean most likely from Greenhouse gases.
So while it will be easy to point to warlords or factions that do not allow aid to reach those who are suffering, we must also be willing to acknowledge that maybe our unintended greenhouse gases emissions for growing our economies helped the rains to fail.
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