TS Irene continues to develop this afternoon and is currently located just to the southeast of Puerto Rico. She is under very favorable conditions (an upper level anticyclone, low shear and warm waters) for rapid development over the next few days. The models are split on the path of where she is going. The last GFS and Canadian models carry Irene towards Miami and the East coast of the US. Some of the mesoscale models are carrying it towards Western Florida. In all cases, the models are developing a Hurricane that will be Category 2 or higher on its way to the US.
Before that happens, the next 48 hours will determine how Irene evolves. Depending on how much interaction there is with Dominican Republic and Haiti will determine the strength of Irene. The more it interacts with the high mountains the weaker is will emerge. However, little or interaction with the mountains will mean a stronger system will head towards the United States.
In any case, whether you are in southern parts of Puerto Rico, San Domingo, Port Au Prince, Nassau or Miami, or other areas you need to stay tuned and be prepared to move if necessary. Identify your key personal items (bank accounts, passports...) and get cash if the forecast is for a landfall in your area. The biggest threats in the next 48 hours will be to Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Haiti from live-threatening rains and possible Category 1 winds. Later (Wednesday -Saturday), the threat will be over the US and possibly the Bahamas.
2 PM location (from the Hurricane Center)
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LOCATION...17.5N 63.7W
ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...ESE OF ST CROIX
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
The pressure has fallen by and estimated 6 mb since 11 AM -- suggesting strengthening.
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