The Caribbean stares down the barrel of TC Emily??

This morning the latest tropical disturbance is approximately 500 miles from Barbados and moving towards the islands. The models are unclear about the intensity or path of this storm with some showing rapid development as it passes over the islands and others not. The National Hurricane Center puts the chances of a tropical depression forming at 100%. The last disturbance to hit Barbados and the windward Islands TS/Hurricane Tomas was last Halloween (October 31st). The damage was significant and there were fatalities on St. Lucia and Haiti.

At present a TS watch has not been put out, but most likely later in the day. The problem is that these islands are at the outer edge of meteorological measurements. So all estimates of hurricanes are coming from a stray buoy or satellites which need to pass over when the storm is intensifying. I hope that the folks are ready because I believe that they will have 24-28 hours of rough weather beginning late tonight and early tomorrow.

Because we know so little about rapid intensification, it is a bit unsettling given that the disturbance is about to run over some very warm water and it is currently in a low shear environment. There is dry air and dust to the north, but on its current trajectory it may miss both high shear and dry air leading to rapid intensification. We know that this process can occur quickly as last GRIP experiment found Hurricane Earl going from a CAT 1 to a CAT 3 in about 8 hours. Even our best models cannot forecasts this type of intensification.

I hope that Hurricane Tomas has led to better preparation in the islands for this year. The test is coming in 24-48 hours.

Will Climate Change make Famine the NORM?

For the last two weeks or so, the media has provided coverage of what is happening in Somalia. The rains have failed for the last two years, refugees are on the move to Kenya and Ethiopia and maybe tens of thousands have perished because of malnutrition. So what is going on? There are many droughts around the world, yet those in Africa seem to cause famine. Is this some type of bad luck?? I don't think so. Famine is more likely to occur in regions of the world where there is civil war, conflict or a government that has very little capacity to serve its people. It also occurs, where the poverty rate is very high and rain fed agriculture is the norm rather than the exception. In these regions, agriculture is marginal with bumper crops occurring once in a while.


Drought can occur anywhere on the planet, but it seems that in areas that are semi-arid they tend to be more frequent. In some cases, below normal rainfall in these regions can last for more than a decade. Such events cause many farmers to abandon their lands and move to large cities. But if there is civil war or conflict, these situations will normally lead to famine and disaster. The issue about famine, is that is it a slowly occurring event. Many who live on the margins are not seen by the governing body and so they may not even perceive that a disaster is occurring especially if the center of power is located in some large city. Eventually the slowing evolving famine becomes a disaster with many more than expected in dire need and children, the sick, disabled and elderly facing life or death circumstances. Sometimes conflicts within a country will not allow for aid to reach those who need it the most. Sadly enough, the media reports on such events when they are are moving towards their apex and is all seems so sudden.

This brings up a question. Will climate change make drought and famine more likely in the future in Africa. Sadly, I believe it will. Our climate models show that dry spells and heat wave are likely to increase in Africa. While is it possible that governance will begin to turn around and get better, it needs to happen quickly. The waste and corruption often witnessed do not prepare many African nations for natural hazards such as drought and hence the disaster repeats again. The rural communities continue to remain outside the eye of the central government and large cities continue to grow with migrants from the rural areas. The lack of diversity in many economies also do not provide a buffer against drought. Africa must find a way to feed itself and use its resources in a collective manner across political borders. But first, it must recognize that its greatest resources are its people -- contrary to what history books or the developed world might think.

There is one difference about the future famine that may not be obvious -- we will all likely aid in the intensity of future disasters associated with drought in famine. Indirectly, our individual and collective CO2 emissions will help to intensify drought and heat waves in semi-arid and other marginal areas around the world. There is scientific evidence to support the idea that we are responsible for the 1970s-1980s drought in the Sahelian region because of the warming of the Indian ocean which is following the warming of the global ocean most likely from Greenhouse gases.

So while it will be easy to point to warlords or factions that do not allow aid to reach those who are suffering, we must also be willing to acknowledge that maybe our unintended greenhouse gases emissions for growing our economies helped the rains to fail.

To Be or Not to Be (TC Don)!!

More than a week ago, (July 15-16) we took our last ozone measurements from Dakar when a well defined closed circulation passed off the coast of Senegal. 10 days later this system is just to the south of Cuba. This easterly wave as dumped rain on Barbados, Dominican republic, Haiti and Cuba. There is lots of easterly wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico, but the wave is still hanging in there.
So the question is to be or not to be!! Tonight or Tomorrow we will know the answer. The model forecast suggest that the weak wave or tropical cyclone may head towards Texas/Mexico in the next 5 days.

Looking further east, the forecast are showing healthy easterly waves moving across West Africa towards the Atlantic. Looks like the table is being set for the hurricane season!

You think that is hot now!! Just wait

This week the Washington DC area is experiencing some of the hottest temperatures of the summer. The mid-west is also experiencing these hot temperatures. The daytime temperatures have hovered around 94 F or 35 C and the night-time temperatures have only fallen to about 80F.
It is nearly impossible to ride in your car with your windows down and over the next three to four days temperatures will approach 100 F and with humidity it will feel like 110 F. For those of you with middle aged to elderly friends and family you need to keep a check on them.

See the not so obvious thing with heat waves is that many of the deaths occur at night with the sun is down and on 2 or 3 floor of apartments or houses. Previous heat waves have had some big negative impacts on the black community over the last 2 decades but will also have an impact on impoverished communities. Also, if you live in the city, more heat is trapped because of the asphalt and concrete. If you don't have an air conditioner, because you cannot afford one or the electric bill, then you have a fan blowing around lots of hot air. Unfortunately, you are losing water through sweating and the body falls under increasing stress. The evening rolls around and you think that you are safe. NOT!! The evening temperatures remain warm and the body remains under stress. This can go on for days leading to dehydration, heat stroke or death. The other thing is that you may feel cool but your body is under severe stress. So, please make sure that everyone is hydrated during these times and those be watchful of those with fans blowing around hot air.

So we will get through this heat wave, but if global climate models are correct your children and grandchildren will face heat that will make this look like it just a warm day. If mean temperatures in DC are were to rise by 2-4 C or 3.6-7.2 F it would be a very bad look. The normal temperatures will be heading into the mid 90s on a typical day in July and the extremes would be at 105, 107, 109. Scary stuff to think about, but unless we do something to slow down the greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere it will become a reality by the mid to late 21st century. And it won't just be DC, it will be nearly all of the current US cities from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. It will stretch across to Europe, Africa and Asia.

When the temp hits 100, I think air conditioner. But that just means more electricity, more coal or oil to generate the electricity and more greenhouse gases. It means lower gas mileage because of the air conditioner and a faster trip to the pump and more greenhouse gases. This is like a habit that we can't seem to break out of. Well we can when law makers decide that renewable energies such as wind and solar, and electric cars can compete with oil, coal and gas prices. The market place must give these renewable and low emission tools a chance to compete which will give our children and grandchildren a chance to see 105 only a few times a summer in DC and not 10 or 15 times later this century.

Stay cool this week, but don't forget about future generations and the need to act on our energy usage. Keep an eye out on Grandma and those beautiful Grand-babies who may not be born yet!!

Dust Dreams .... Yeah it was real.

July 6, 2010 7 PM (left) and July 7, 2010 6 PM (right)

This time approximately 1 year ago, we watched the most amazing event. A large Saharan dust outbreak located 1-3 miles above the ground that nearly blotted the Sun out. Dust you say, yes dust. The Sahara Desert is the largest source of dust in the World. Each year approximately 1 Trillion pounds of dust leaves the Sahara towards the Atlantic, the Mediterranean, Europe and the Middle East. The dust plays an important role in fertilizing the world’s oceans with Iron, which can be taken up by the ocean’s organisms. The dust can travel nearly 3000 miles from Senegal to Barbados during spring and summer seasons. Unfortunately, the dust also causes respiratory problems for many in West Africa and downstream and is one of the leading causes of death in Senegal according to the World Health Organization.

During the summer the dust is suspended above the monsoon layer and only small quantities hit the ground. However, if you are on a flight, you would go right through this dust layer and the ground would not be visible. During the winter, when there is no moist monsoon layer, the dust comes directly to the ground and can be a direct threat to health. The dust also carries the meningitis, which can kill because of its impact on the brain. The Sahel or zone just to the south of the Sahara Desert is the zone during the winter where meningitis is most frequent.

Anyway, this big dust event began on July 5^th in the Southern Algerian Desert and reached Dakar, Senegal during the night of July 7^th, 2010. The Quicktime movie below shows the dust from the MSG satellite with Dust being colored magenta. The next morning, I could not see the Sun directly as it seemed to be covered by clouds. However, it was dust that was above us which was verified by the CALIPSO satellite that viewed the dust layer at about 3 AM in the morning. Our measurements from the ground were off the chart should Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) approaching 4. This means that most of the direct Sunrays (more than 90%) were being scattered in all directions. At one point, a guy asked me if the Sun was the moon because of the way that it looked.

This year, we have also been looking for these kinds of events. This must happen once in a blue moon as nearly 3 years of measurements to not show AOD approaching a value of 4. This year, the dust seems to be confined more to the North, which may suggest that the monsoon is very far north. We have captured about 4 -5 dust events over the last 3 weeks in Senegal and we did not capture any in Cape Verde during the first two weeks of June. This may mean heavier than normal rains over the next 60 days and also a vigorous hurricane season. I am expecting the switch to turn on within 3 weeks, when strong waves begin coming off the coast. In the meantime, we will continue to search for the big one – Dust event that is.

Senegal’s Environmental R….R….R…..oar (Renew, Reuse, Recycle )

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Whether you are in the city of Dakar at the University or a remote village there is a common feature to be found: Plastic.

Black Plastic bags, blue plastic bags, white plastic bags

Plastic coffee or tea cups,

plastic water bottles, plastic coca-cola, fanta, and sprite bottles.

This plastic is often interlaced with trash. This new age material is very difficult to breakdown taking potentially hundreds of years to decay. While it seems so useful to everyday living, when dumped in the villages which do not have a recycling program it is bad. Even if you burn it, the toxic smoke coming from the trash is not good for the health of the children or anyone and it contributes to local air pollution.

When visiting the village of Kawsara two weeks ago to maintain the solar array, I told Janee, one of the students, that we were going to get some trash bags and try to clean up this beautiful village. Two days before leaving that is exactly what we aimed to do. While cleaning up a teacher, David, for one of the students was visiting the village. We talked about the situation and how the plastics were very bad for the environment and soils and that it took so long to break down. He said that many of the villagers were not aware of it and considered it as normal trash, which would eventually decay.

I suggested to him that we put a program together, with the college and high school students and begin to (1) clean up the villages and (2) talk to the village members (men, women and children) about the negative aspects of all of the plastic. I think that this is the first step. But of course we want to go further.

I would like to find a sponsor or push a fundraiser to provide renewable bags to all of the people in the village so that they don't have to get the little black plastic bags. The renewable bags that we use when we go to the grocers would be fine. I looked in Dakar for them but I could not find them. If I can take 1000 renewable bags with me when I go to Senegal next year that would be great; 10,000 would be better.

What about the bottles: I think that there must be a company in Senegal that can take these bottle and either recycle them or transform them into other products such as mats or bags. If such a business does not exist, it could be created in the rural areas and provide local income for the villages. I see this as another way to empower the young people of Senegal by letting find solutions to the problems that exists right now.

The most hopefully part of cleaning up Kawsara was the children. We asked them to help us gather all of the plastic bottles and also asked them to not throw bottles there anymore. We also asked them to tell their parents not to do so. After a short time, we had an army of the youngest members of the village helping us. That is really a beautiful and important investment in the future NOW!!