As I sit here in Sao Vicente, Cape Verde waiting for data completion from a balloon current at 75000 feet, I am thinking about the current hurricane season. At Present a disturbance is over the Caribbean sea with some potential of developing. At least one model (makes it a tropical disturbance -- but that model often overdoes it). Normally this is not a problem, but the disturbance is relatively close to Haiti with its many vulnerable people who are still dealing with the aftermaths of the Earthquake. Current observations show that it has been raining at Port Au Prince for the last 7 hours. We will see how this will play out.
Here in West Africa and Cape Verde everyone is wondering what the upcoming season will bring. It is still too early, but there is clearly a sense that it will be wet again. In fact it most likely rained in Senegal last night. Normally this time of year in Cape Verde and Senegal it is very dry with desert air dominating the scene. This does not seem to be the case at present and most likely next week. You may think that this is just coincidence, but back in the 1950s and 1960s when it was very wet, it was very normal for the wet season to begin in early June. But after the drying period of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s it appears that there is an upswing in wet season again for West Africa.
Seems so far away from America, but West Africa is the birthplace for majority of tropical cyclones. So as the rainy season goes here, it also seems to go for the hurricane season. Beginning in Early July, the monsoon will go into full effect and disturbances will begin rolling off the African continent every 3 to 5 days. I believe that the next 3 weeks will give us a peak into what will happen. Stay tuned.
Until then, we will keep an eye on the Caribbean sea and hope that all is well for the people of Haiti.
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