Civil Unrest in Senegal: Love, Peace , Violence, Stability

As the unrest continues, I have been pondering the following: What if they are right?

What if the disenfranchised, who love their country have to resort to violence to bring change? Is this different than the revolutionary war in the United States?

What if there are those who want peace only want it to preserve the system of corruption and the large class differences that exists in Senegal?

Who is right then and who is wrong?

The disenfranchised cannot remain in their position and the corrupt cannot maintain their position. Does this mean compromise? I thought that power was never given but taken? For the first time, the Army and even UN troops are on the roads.

Are they trying to preserve the peace or preserve the status quo?

The president has not been on TV to explain the situation to the people after a week of unrest. Is this normal for leadership?

As I have stated. I do not advocate violence (physical) but poverty is a form of violence by those who have the power. Being jobless and living on 1 or 2 meals a day is also a form of violence against poor and especially the vulnerable (children, elderly).

We must all overcome our fear of change. The young people who are fighting have overcome their fears and they want real change. Maybe it is time to recognize the legitimacy of their view and stop labeling them as troublemakers. They see the corruption, the invisible hand of the powerful outside interest, and their lack of worth in their society.

Is this real? So when is violence recommended? I don't know now.

However when corruption is destabilizing the society, maybe the threat or reality of violence is what stabilizes the situation. We see this in nature as violent thunderstorms often stablize the the hot summer afternoons, earthquakes often remove the pressure that has been building up for hundreds of years and exploding supernova give birth to solar systems that ultimately house humanity.

Senegal is still growing up and this maybe another growing pain of the young democracy.

I worry about harm coming to my friends in Senegal but I realize that they are suffering each day on some level. The lines have become blurry.

Beyond the Tipping point - Organized Violence

As I reported yesterday, the situation was going downhill with the protest against the Electric company. However, by 8 PM there were fires that were set ablaze in many different areas. There was a big blue city bus that had been set on fire and it was blocking all of the traffic. By the time I finished dinner, there were fires that had been set in many, many areas of the city. I heard that tear gas was fired in some parts of the city but I cannot confirm.

See more on the BBC site: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13938217

This is an organized kind of violence. The people may be using facebook, twitter or sms to organize. This is beyond anything that the older generation is use to. This is different in Egypt because there was organized protest at Tahrir square against the government. This protest is organized not at one focal point but seems to be many. They are not protesting with words, they are acting with fire. I am sure that there will be a response by the government because they cannot ignore the safety of innocent people.

I leave here on Friday, for one of the few times, I can say yes I want to leave. I have students here that I must protect and I don't like to see this type of organized violence. I came here to do research that can benefit the people of Senegal. After we set up our instruments today and go to the village tomorrow, I will have completed the task.


My gut tells me that it will get worse unless the president resigns or says that he will not run in 2012. These young people are pushing for change but their technique while surprising is dangerous.

Going beyond the Tipping point - Electricity, poor Governance and Violence

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Over the last 48 hours the situation continues to evolve in Senegal even as we are doing research. On Sunday morning, I and 5 students were awoken by a bang at 4:30 AM in the morning. I ran to my balcony and saw a line of fire running from the street to the car of the land-lady whose apartment we are staying at. The car was set ablaze by someone. We could not leave by the house by the door because of the flames and smoke, so we moved to the roof of the apartment building where the blaze continued. The firefighters did come and put it out after 20 minutes, but the flames were shooting the near the top of the building. My room (2nd floor) smelled of toxic materials and smoke. While we were not hurt, we were a bit traumatized and we moved from that apartment yesterday to the university.

Why did this occur? The landlady is a supporter of President Wade who the public is protesting. Of course the 23rd of June will be remember here as the day when the public stood up to his plan to change the constitution. It seem like a political sabotage but I cannot be 100% sure. I definitely do not support what the president is doing but I do not want people to be terrorized.

Today, I went to find out how much we owed and as I was leaving the guard told me to be careful because the people were protesting the electric company (Senelec). Senelec needs to be protested because every single day since I have been here, we have lost power. Last night there was no power all night.

I saw everyone looking at the corner and there I saw young men putting bricks in the street and
throwing debris. The then put the stuff on fire and blocked all traffic. They were waiting for the police. I quickly moved away from this area and did see two police, but they did not seem concerned. I don't know the outcome of this last protest.

The thing that concerns me is that all of these issues are converging at once. There is a feel of violence in the air. While many of the older generation do not believe that much will come of this, I am not so confident. All around us we see where poor governance is leading countries like Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. I don't think that you can disregard the young people and I am not sure that they want to listen or talk. But we can't give up on them because they are the future.

I have talked to Senegalese young folks about violence and why is it not the best option. The real problem with violence is that no one knows where it start or ends. A fist fight can become a gun fight and a rock to the head can kill like a bullet. The people here are tired but they have to continue to talk to the younger generation about the downside of violence. They have to protest the injustices but they do not have to become violent, because I am sure that the corruption will collapse. Corruption is unsustainable and like some viruses it begins to kill its host.

On the back side of all if this is the anger that people feel towards this government, the electric company and other forms of power that control their everyday lives. Just remember, they can cannot control the good within us. They cannot remove the good that parents and grandparents have shown and taught us. They cannot remove the good that God has put within us. They cannot take the spirit of man. They are not more powerful than God. But if the people (all people) fall to the way of violence, they will destroy all that is good within. Violent actions does not leave the the mind until one dies. Regret and guilt will also accompany this violence. Again, I say do not accept what is happening but before you pick up the rock --- Think : Will this lead to a positive action within my heart? What if I kill the policeman... What if I hit and kill an innocent person.....

Don't let this system of corruption and your suffering steal your heart or the good ways. Don't forget that we all have a village. No matter where you are in the diaspora. That is where your true self can be found.

The Wet Season in Dakar Begins with a Bang!!

This morning I woke up and felt uncomfortable. In my journal I wrote "The Monsoon is coming!" This comes after deploying our dense and coarse rain gauge network last Mon-Wednesday. While we pulled up to one village, the Chief greeted us and told us just in time. The rain is coming soon. While I couldn't have known how he came to the conclusion, it felt like he was right.

This morning we were driving to our village of Kawsara because we have some work to finish at the solar array and also discussing how to use renewable energy to help them pump water from approximately 190 ft. Kawsara is the village, where we undertook our field campaign in 2006 with NASA. However, they began digging for water in 2004 and found water in October of 2010. The renewable center at Chiekh Anta Diop University has been working on ideas to help them pump the water to the surface so that maybe they can begin some irrigation to grow food.


So we left for Kawsara about 8:45 this morning. On the way the sky began to look very Dark. I told my colleague, the monsoon is coming. I look again and said hey that is not rain, that is brown it looks like dust. 60 seconds later -- lights out. Day became night and everyone put their lights on. Dust was everywhere and the wind was howling. 4 minutes later rain began to fall heavily -- Yeah the Monsoon and wet season arrived. So exciting for us science geeks!!

So a couple of things with the monsoon. We have been planning to measure ozone prior to the wet season arriving because we believe that the soils have bacteria which will release nitric oxide (NO) because they are water stressed from the long dry season of 6 months. This in turn should make ozone (O3) levels high. We have seen this signal over the last few years but this year we are coordinate with scientists from the ministry of environment to monitor the surface levels. Well in short, our boxes arrived too late for our first ozone measurements. We will launch the first one on Monday so we don't have a reference prior to the first rains. But that is the way it goes.

Second, the rains were so heavy and there was some minor flooding on the roads. The drainage is too bad in the suburbs of Dakar. We cannot predict what is coming but the seasonal forecast is pointing to above normal rain. With the lack of electricity in Dakar, poor drainage and heavy rains forecast this year ... watch out. Mosquitoes gonna be biting and Malaria outbreaks need monitored.

Governance, Unrest, Sustainable Development - The Tipping Point

In the past 2 days, I have witnessed things in Senegal that I have never seen before. The anger of the people over poor governance leading to violence. The president of Senegal, tried to amend the constitution of Senegal with the intent of extending his powers. But he had already done this earlier by allowing himself to run for a 3 term when the constitution only allowed for one 7 year term followed by a 2nd 5 year term. The President has used the power of democracy to benefit himself and many outside interest. Senegal has never had a coup and the people prefer to discuss rather than fight. But consider the situation: There are many buildings going up around Senegal and yet there the average person has no money, the young people do not have opportunities (as many are in the streets selling phone cards, popcorn, tissues, fans, cookies and other nonsense). The electricity has been out everyday since I have been here for many hours (one day 20 out of 24 hours).

The idea that the President would try to push these amends in the face of what has happened in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and elsewhere is crazy. You can only step on the neck of a person for so long. Senegal has all of the elements of unrest: Poor economy, Poor governance, man disenfranchised people and poverty. So when the unrest broke out downtown, it also broke out in many locations around Dakar and the country. While I was glad that the people's voice was heard, I was also sadden by the level of violence. It is sad to see the police beating and fighting the citizens of Senegal. But I realize that they are a tool of government.

I really hope that President Wade, decides not to run again because it will just continue the unrest. Senegal needs good governance and a plan for sustainable development; not in the form of loans or outside interest. They need to develop the future: Its young people. There is so much to do for these young people but the view has been that only outside resources can maintain the country. So the development of many seaside hotels.. But what can they do?? Tourism??? How about building a new smartgrid, developing renewable energy, developing recycling plans, developing sustainable rural development and addressing the lack of infrastructure in the rapidly urbanized areas around Senegal. How about investing in the public health sectors so that people can live longer and better lives. How about becoming food independent? How about stopping the brain drain from your countries. Leaders in Africa need to look to Western models for good governance but need stop looking at them for economic development. They need to look at their own talents and strengths for economic development. This can only happen with good governance. They must respect and trust that the people can carry this country forward.

In two days, I have seen two futures. Yesterday when riding to the university in a Cab, We encountered the students who were going to the fight. Their energy was strong and focused on fighting the police and the government. I was not afraid of them, but felt I knew what they were capable of destroying if pressed. This morning, I saw the students walking with their books focused on developing their lives and their country.

President pulled those amendments off the table for discussion after he saw the level of destruction that was occurring. I hope that this was done in humility instead of political maneuvering .

Thursday's final score

People of Senegal 1 Poor Governance 0

The fight continues for respect ...................

If you can’t keep the lights on, maybe its time to try something else

I arrived in Dakar on Sunday afternoon of this week and the weather was hot. That is normal this time of year as there is abundant sunlight before the summer monsoon season begins. However, when speaking to my colleagues, they told me that large parts of the city lose power nearly every day. True enough, since Monday we have gone for many hours without power – sometimes 4-6 hours in the neighborhood that I am living in (Grand Dakar).

I am not sure why this is the case but I would surmise that two factors are at work: (a) the load on the grid is too great or (2) the cost of running the generators for producing electricity by is too expensive.

Senegal has a rapidly growing population and while many in the rural areas do not have access to electricity, the growing towns and the city of Dakar have access to electricity. Dakar has a minimum of 2.5 million people and that is probably off by ½ to 1 million persons especially just outside of the city. It has a vibrant downtown area, is a major shipping port and hosts an international airport. In addition is has a significant middle class and a university, which host approximately 70,000 students (many more than it can handle). The demands on the electric grid must be tremendous during the afternoon when everyone needs power to run their laptops and desktops, classes and businesses are running at maximum capacity and air conditioners are humming because it is so hot. There is too much strain on the grid but not enough juice for everyone; lights out for someone.

Senegal’s major electric company is Senelec uses generators, which are driven by oil. I am told that they tried a new project using charcoal a few years ago. But any system driven by coal, oil or any hydrocarbon base will need a continuous use of that fuel. Given that oil prices are nearly 100 dollars a barrel and the price of gas and diesel in Senegal is somewhere between 6-8 dollars a gallon -- who can pay and who will pay. Senegal as a GNP of approximately 23 Billion USD (US GNP about 14 Trillion dollars) and is currently rated in the lower 90 % of countries on the UN Human development index. Oil Libya is a supplier to Senegal and with the war, I don’t know the reduced oil flow is impacting the ability to generate electricity. However, I am sure that it more expensive to produce electricity because of the high world oil prices.

No matter what the case, developing countries cannot afford to play with electricity in its current form. There are a couple of ways to begin digging out of this mess but it won’t be easy. If you live in the US – also note that the Obama Administration is also working on the same problem.

1.) Develop a SmartGrid and take advantage of energy efficient and smart appliances that can be programmed or adjusted based on the overall load at any given time. There are going to have to be times of the day with the load is reduced by (a) charging more for electricity during peak hours (will help people to use electricity better; (b) Make use of appliances that are energy efficient and that can reduce their cycles during the peak hours of the afternoon; (c) Bring engineers, computer scientists and IT folks together to figure out how to distribute power to the grid on large and small scales based on real-time data.

2.) Set national goals on renewable energy. This means that a country like Senegal must set goals of producing 10 or 25% of their power by solar, wind and biomass. This will help to create new jobs and pull the stress of the current electric grid. I also think that the government should support people who want to come off the grid or reduce their dependency on the grid. Provide them a small supplement for changing their power system. Senegal receives a tremendous amount of sunlight but there are also some areas where wind farms can be pursued. Developed countries should help them develop renewable energies.

3.) Tell people the truth. The use of the electric grid in its current form is unsustainable. You can't provide the power. People are charged by kilowatt-hour no matter what the time of day and so there is a certain level of unconscious behavior that is being encouraged about electricity use. Let them know that it is impossible to continue along this path – that the blackouts and brownouts will get worse. Tell each person that they have a role to play in conservation and the use of renewable energy sources. Let them know that the only way to generate more power is to import more oil or other fossil fuels, which will only help in accelerating anthropogenic climate change, where Africa is the most vulnerable and has the least capacity to adapt – and that their children and grandchildren will be in harms way.

Unfortunately, this is not just a message to Senegal but to all of the governments and people in the World. Fortunately, the European community and some states within the US have begun to see the light and are moving away from the old ways of generating electricity. It may not be until more people are sitting in the dark on a daily basis that action is really promoted.

The Great Green Wall of the Sahel and Climate Change-- More Rain or more Pain

On Monday, I went to sit in on a workshop/conference about the African Drylands and the re-greening of this area. It was very interesting and there has been much written about it:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=farmers-in-sahel-beat-back-drought-and-climate-change-with-trees&print=true

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10344622




What is happening is related to agro-forestry. Farmers are growing trees on their farms and it is leading to the greening of the land in the semi-arid region (the Sahel) where I am currently visiting. In addition to greening the land, it is stabilizing the soils and providing additional income to farmers. It is adding food security to the region. One speaker said that 5,000,000 hectares have been regrown over the last 30 years. There was clearly a difference.

For those of you who may not remember, the Sahelian region has undergone significant changes with a severe drying period in the 1970s and 1980s. The impact was significant with many farmers going to cities leading to urbanization. Furthermore, many lives were lost. At that time the argument went something like:

- the desertification and drought of Sahel was being caused by cattle and poor farming techniques. So in fact the drought was due to the people themselves. Early climate modeling studies seem to support this but the changes that they proposed to the land surface were much larger than observations.

It turns out that we would get a clarification on the causes of drought in West Africa until the early part of this decade. Dr Alessandra Giannini and colleagues wrote an article in Science which through global model attribution showed that the drought was caused primarily by the oceans and that global warming was in part responsible for the ocean temperature changes.

So what is the point. Well we might think that we can green the Sahel which I think is a great idea without also doing mitigation. However, this would be a grand mistake and in fact have little impact on precipitation if the global warming is accelerated or goes beyond a certain point. Estimates range from 2 degrees C-6 degrees C (3.6-10.8 F) globally.

So I applaud these efforts, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking that we don't have to mitigate globally and ultimately move away from a carbon based economy to a renewable energy based economy.

One other problem, is that governments from Sahelian countries that are not at the top of GNP list will begin sinking money into the Green Wall in the hope that their food security will increase. However, if rainfall is being controlled by sources thousands of miles away over the Indian or Atlantic Oceans what will it really mean. DEBT on impoverish countries.

Countries in Sahel did this a few years ago through rain enhancement schemes (cloud seeding). It didn't work because the scale of the rain systems here are huge compared to seeding efforts. Also the clouds also have lots of CCN and ice so trying to make more is really questionable.

Finally, it appears that we are moving into a wet period of the Sahel. Unfortunately, this area cannot handle large amounts of rain and the flooding has displaced hundred of thousands of West African residents in the last 2 years. So there is no easy answer and given that millions of people live in crowded cities -- many in poor conditions does not bode well no matter what the situation is in the countryside.

A deep connection to Mother Africa

As I am winding down my stay in Cape Verde I find myself facing a familiar feeling of leaving a natural but significant part of me behind. The connection to the people, music, the land, the sky is very deep. Waking up each morning here always brings a sense of renewal for me. I must confess that I also feel this in way in Senegal. I am looking forward to going into the villages and seeing the people when we deploy our rain gauge network next week. The transition between the dry season and the wet season can be felt in through my senses like the anticipation of the farmers. No matter what knowledge I have gained from reading journal articles, books and the like, I am always in awe of what actually happens. It is like a place of no other from the weather to the people that I meet. The spiritual journey is often much closer than one can imagine. Taking measurements in West Africa is like nothing you can imagine when you give yourself to the process. If you resist what she is trying to show you, you miss it (completely) but if you remain open and patient you have found your master teacher. The knowledge that you learn will be deep and connected. It is in this environment that I have learned the most, found the connections and remain open to learning.

As for home in the US, I can get into grooves of learning, but often they are for only short periods and truncated because new processes continue to spawn leading to me putting on the absent minded professor costume. I just need to find a way to preserve what I learn in Africa so that I can remain grounded in the US. Is it possible? Yes because the Earth is one, but the noise level is so high and concrete so thick in some environments that you miss your connection…. you just overlook it- maybe every day, every week and every year.

Well even with the sadness, I am heading to Senegal and remained attached to Mother Africa for another 20 days. Just have to cherish one day at a time.

Climate Change and Population growth -- TABOO Talk.

This semester in climate change and public policy we took on the tough issue of population growth and climate change. Why is this such a tough topic to cover: (1) The population growth is occurring for people of color (Yellow, Brown and Black); (2) Areas of Africa through slavery were depopulated at the expense Europe and America; (c) Rising populations of color can envoke either fear or power.

While all of these factors do matter and cannot be ignored, this conversation is about resources for our families, now and for future generations. Each child requires food, clothing and shelter each and every day of their lives -- They also need love. Being able to achieve these feats is a form of love that is not always acknowledged. But the question is where do these resources from? Heating a house, having lights and having fresh water all take energy is not always visible to the user of the resources. Just turn on the light and it is there. But our children and their children will also want to just turn on the lights They will also want heat and want to drive their cars. Can we all do this??? I am not sure, but I see one big traffic jam if 7 billion people have cars. Sure not everyone drives at once or can even drive, but there will be 9 billion people by 2050. Doesn't seem like a lot huh? Well in 1800 there were 1 billion people (1,000,000,000)
today there are 6-7 Billion (6,000,000,000). The amount of energy emission have increased some 1000 fold.

Consider the fact that 2,000,000,000 (billion) people live on less than 2 dollars per day and they do not have cars or lights and maybe not even fresh water... But they want it. In fact everyone wants to live like an American. What does that mean ... The average American person emits about 100 lbs of Carbon dioxide each day. If everyone does this -- Game over. It is the worst case scenario for CO2 emission scenarios.

So where does population enter. When China went to the 1 child per couple issue it seemed like a crazy idea to me. But now that I know that China has 160 cities with over a million people in these cities I am like -- Good idea. China's population is still growing (but also growing American's in lifestyle) and expected to put another 100-200 million folks than it has at present on the Earth in the next 40-50 years. India is expected to put more than 500 million folks on the Earth and the United States probably another 40 million more than present. The minorities (African and Hispanic American) of today in the United States will be the Majority in 2050. But the question remains, will their lives be better off??? Will they enjoy the same things that we today? Will they be able to enjoy those things and possibly have to adapt to a changing climate??

I believe that each person has the right to choose for children on their own, but we have to get out the mindset that we have infinite resources or that everyone has access to basic resources. I think that every person has the right to water and light but many people do not have access to it. I believe that our future generations should also have the right to it. Each of us is responsible for making this happen.

In today's fast moving society, young people are often left behind on issues such as population growth, and resources. Many want children but have not taught to think about it from a resource point of view. But that is because we are just doing as we were taught. One day however, we won't be able to do this. We have to face this reality. We will have to think about the lives that we want for our children and the cost of raising them. The cost will be related daily needs (diapers, clothes, college) and the cost to the planet (biodiversity, deforestation, land-use change and greenhouse gases). Then we have to think about are we willing to pay this price before we having children. This all comes back to the simple question of LOVE. Do we love our lives and the things that we have access to? Do we want the same or an even better quality of life for our children and grandchildren? Can we improve the quality of life for many of those on the planet today? Are we willing to create sustainable livelihoods for everyone? Are will willing to risk future generations to a warmer world, rising sea level, drought, floods and stronger hurricanes?? If we love our children, grandchildren, cousins, nephews, nieces and humanity them you already know the answer, consciousness and the action that is required.

Rope Burn in Sao vicente

Somethings looking behind you is not a bad idea. Yesterday, we launched an ozonesonde (a device that measures ozone from the ground to about 85000 feet) with calm winds under hot conditions. Last night in Cape Verde the winds started to blow but it did not seem so bad and the sky was cloud covered. But launching the balloon was a mess. We waited a bit for air traffic control to give us the green light and when the did we were like ... let do this. Trouble was that the wind was blowing at 20 mph but the nearest station is Dakar Senegal (300 miles away). I tried to check their observations but the noon measurements did not come in yet. At any rate, at launch the balloon was oscillating wildly and wanted to either crash into the ground or run into a large wind vane which provides current for the station. I tried to be a hero and hold on to it like a cowboy and got bad rope burn. At last I let the thing go and ozonesonde just cleared the ground and went nearly horizontal. It just cleared the the volcanic crater in front of the station. Winds for the first 2000 feet were between 30-40 mph and the balloon just went over the Island at a low altitude. After 30 minutes the balloon is at 9000 feet by yesterday was at 15000 feet at the same time. I have a feeling this balloon won't make it to 85000 feet because of the stress on it. Of course I saw all of this when the Dakar measurements just came in about 30 minutes ago. Looked back too late.

The forecast is for the same tomorrow, but we will try to be better prepared.

Hurricane season from the Other Side (Africa)

As I sit here in Sao Vicente, Cape Verde waiting for data completion from a balloon current at 75000 feet, I am thinking about the current hurricane season. At Present a disturbance is over the Caribbean sea with some potential of developing. At least one model (makes it a tropical disturbance -- but that model often overdoes it). Normally this is not a problem, but the disturbance is relatively close to Haiti with its many vulnerable people who are still dealing with the aftermaths of the Earthquake. Current observations show that it has been raining at Port Au Prince for the last 7 hours. We will see how this will play out.

Here in West Africa and Cape Verde everyone is wondering what the upcoming season will bring. It is still too early, but there is clearly a sense that it will be wet again. In fact it most likely rained in Senegal last night. Normally this time of year in Cape Verde and Senegal it is very dry with desert air dominating the scene. This does not seem to be the case at present and most likely next week. You may think that this is just coincidence, but back in the 1950s and 1960s when it was very wet, it was very normal for the wet season to begin in early June. But after the drying period of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s it appears that there is an upswing in wet season again for West Africa.

Seems so far away from America, but West Africa is the birthplace for majority of tropical cyclones. So as the rainy season goes here, it also seems to go for the hurricane season. Beginning in Early July, the monsoon will go into full effect and disturbances will begin rolling off the African continent every 3 to 5 days. I believe that the next 3 weeks will give us a peak into what will happen. Stay tuned.

Until then, we will keep an eye on the Caribbean sea and hope that all is well for the people of Haiti.