Did Weather play a role in the crash of Flight 5017 Today??

Flight Path of 5017 from Ouga to Algiers (Source: Chicago Tribune)

Last night around 9:50 PM Eastern Standard Time, Flight 5017 which departed from the capital of Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou (or sometimes called Ouga) some 50 minutes earlier lost contact with
Air Traffic Control Radar as it travelled to Algeria.    Tonight the wreckage was found in Mali but the exact location seems to be somewhat confusing.  Daylight will come up again in 4-5 hours and an exact determination will be known.  One thing that is known is that the pilot as to divert from some bad weather that was occurring along the flight path.

Satellite images indeed show heavy weather in Northern Burkina Faso and Southern Mali which would have caused the plane to deviate.  However, the area of bad weather, based on cloud top temperatures and rain rates was not very large and should have easily been avoided based on the forecast from the Capital.

1 AM satellite image of Convective System to the Northeast of Ouga.

Precipitation estimates show the heaviest rainfall falling near the cloud cluster for the next hours time.

EUMETSAT Rain rate estimates at 115 UTC

At 1:30 AM and145 AM  the area of heavy rain is still found over Northern Burkina Faso and Southern Mali.  A second area of lighter convection is found over the area where the plane went down at this time.

EUMETSAT 130 and 145 AM identified areas of heavy Precipitation.

By 200 AM, the only significant area of precipitation should have been south of the plane wreckage site but with areas of lighter precipitation near the wreckage site.

0200 UTC (2AM) EUMETSAT precipitation patterns.

I would have to assume that if there had been contact at 150 AM, that the pilot should have diverted around the area and maybe passed the area of heavy thunderstorms.  This is certainly true if the wreckage is found closer to the Algerian border.  I have looked at winds and vertical shear over the area and the winds were not that strong (not out of the ordinary) and the vertical wind shear was very light at the time.   

Even though the thunderstorms (convection) over Eastern Mali looks relatively weak, it does appear to be associated with lightning based on the WWLLN (University of Washington) ground based systems.  Lightning occurs in most of the organized convective systems, because we believe that desert dust serves as a good source of ice nuclei which makes the top of the thunderstorms ice filled, separated from liquid or mixed (liquid/ice) parts of the thunderstorm below.  This creates charge separation which brings about lightning.  

WWLLN lightning  activity between 0100-0200 UTC

WWLLN lightning between 0200-0300 UTC

Based on the WWLLN data, there was lightning along the original path and also in eastern Mali.  So it is possible that while the areas of rain appear light, they may have been stronger than expected because lightning is an indicator of 

convective activity and updrafts (which pilots always want to avoid).   The other possibility is that the plane was struck by lightning, leading to some type of systems failure or a possible breach (such as a door) leading to decompression of the plane.  

The area of strong thunderstorms in Burkina Faso were large and strong and so hopefully the pilot avoided this area.  I would have to assume that flying though this initial areas would have posed a significant threat to the aircraft, with lightning, severe turbulence and possible mechanical failure.  However,  in the event that it was avoided, the area of weaker thunderstorms in Eastern Mali may have been the cause of the downed aircraft through lightning or a some rogue updrafts.  

Addressing Weather Hazards in West Africa 

The lack of weather observations, including radars, put many people in harms way each wet season.  The numbers of weather related fatalities in West Africa remain unknown at present.   There is currently the satellite system along with software that could greatly empower forecasters to protect the general population and commercial transportation.  While the number of weather related fatalities cannot be brought to zero it can be greatly reduced.  Why this has not happened is unclear to me but the environment can be monitored and weather hazards can predicted. 

The types of weather systems (mesoscale convective systems) are long-lived and difficult to predict with our currently models but once they form their lifetime can be easily monitored.  For example the system over Burkina Faso at 0200 this morning was transformed to a much larger system by this evening impacting many more people.  As of 10 PM, the system is coming to an end in its lifecycle over Guinea. 

Thursday 645 PM Mature Mesoscale Convective System evolved from the 1 AM system

While Satellites will help us in monitoring West African convective systems, we must improve our understanding through measurements and increase the observation system in each country.  This will provide the nowcasting capacity which will give forecasters the proper tools to monitor  fast moving systems.  Lightning data at 15 minute intervals which the UK Met service has said it will provide to all Meteorological Services should be utilized for the protection of life and property.

Eventually, the recovery of the black box will provide the answers to what happened today.  While it cannot bring the loved ones back to their families it may provide guidance on if weather played a big role in the crash and if so how future weather related accidents can be avoided.  May the 116 souls of flight 5017 rest in peace.