Late Season Hurricane Surge in the Atlantic

2014 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 

With an evolving El Nino during the summer season, below normal hurricane activity had been forecasted for the Atlantic ocean basin.   A late start to the wet season in West Africa and continuous surges of Saharan dust provided poor environmental conditions in the Eastern and Central Atlantic Ocean Basins during August and September.  While I expected the Saharan Air Layer to weaken in late August, it never did.   We had 4 hurricanes (One being a major hurricane) and 1 tropical storm.

The Pacific Ocean basin on the other hand has been very active with numerous cyclones in the Eastern, Central and Western basins.  

2014 Eastern Pacific Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Odile had a major impact in Mexico impacting resort areas of Mexico such as Cabo San Lucas.

Damage from Tropical Cyclone Odile

By the middle of September, it was assumed that increased wind shear would limit any Atlantic  tropical cyclones.  However, over the last week we have had two tropical disturbances develop over the Atlantic.    Hurricane Fay formed this weekend impacting Bermuda and Tropical Storm  Gonzalo approaching the Windward Islands.

NHC Active Tropical Cyclones (Sunday Oct. 12)

Track of Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to intensify over the next few days and tropical storm warnings are up for many of the Caribbean nations including Puerto Rico.  Gonzalo may become a major hurricane in a few days when it is out over the open Atlantic.   So you never know, but one thing that is certain, is that Saharan dust intensity has weakened considerably over last week giving tropical cyclones a better chance to develop.

Saharan Air or lack of it (Sunday October 12)

The Atlantic Tropical Season is almost over, but not yet.  Don't forget that Hurricane Sandy came up the East coast in late October causing major damage and loss of life.   Even if it is an El Nino year, the hurricane season is not officially over until November 30th.  Don't be caught off guard.