Hurricane Gonzalo to Strike Bermuda on Friday

hurricane Gonzalo October 16, 2014 at 545 AM EST

This morning hurricane Gonzalo is a category 4 storm with winds of 140 MPH and expected to move over Bermuda in the next 36-48 hours.  Hurricane warnings are up for Bermuda

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

NHC official track for Hurricane Gonzalo

Depending on where the storm passes Bermuda, the country may experience both a strong storm surge and winds which may bring significant damage to the country.  The current projection is the the storm will pass over or just to the left of the island. Passage to left of the Island would produce the strongest winds and most likely a higher surge.  However looking at the elevation map of Bermuda there appears to be some level of protection from the surge.  The two largest cities (Hamilton and St. George) are likely to be spared damage from surge because of their positions.

Topographic map of Bermuda (source Wikipedia)

However, there is still likely to be damage if hurricane Gonzalo passes over Bermuda as a major hurricane.    Because Bermuda is a tourist location, many of the assets around this industry may suffer some degree of damage. The picture below suggest that with the mix of land and sea that damage is likely by both wind and waves even if there is blockage by mountains in the south.

Bermuda (source Wikipedia)

Numerous hurricanes have come close to Bermuda in the past with most causing little or no damage.  However in 2003, Hurricane Fabian passed very close to Bermuda causing an estimated 300 million dollars in damage.  Maximum sustained winds of 120 MPH were noted.

Track of Hurricane Fabian September 2003 

Visible Image of Hurricane Fabian September 2003

Fabian passed just to the west of Bermuda and it is very possible that hurricane Gonzalo may have also have a similar path.


The next 24-36 hours will be a very tense time for the people of Bermuda.  Let's hope and pray that they are prepared for this significant hazard.