Searching for peace of mind after War in the Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast (Cote D'Ivoire) with Abidjan on the coast

During this week, a workshop was held in Abidjan, Ivory Coast (5.3N, 4W) to address climate change and air quality.  Young West African scientists and PhD students were there to learn how to use a regional climate model and apply it to relevant problems in their countries.  Lecturers from West Africa, Europe, Africa and the US  (I and another brilliant scientist from Texas) were invited to give lectures and to help generate ideas for the students and promote collaboration.  I have been to Abidjan once in the 1990s but was confined to the airplane as it refueled and picked up new passengers.  Abidjan lies on the coast of the Gulf of Guinea and is approximately 4000 miles from Washington DC.  Ivory Coast was subject to the forces of Slavery because of its proximity to the ocean and then colonized by the French.  There are 6 million people that live in the  city of Abidjan, with approximately 40% Christianity, 40% Islam and 20% traditional religions.  

Because of the large numbers of cars and people, the traffic is horrible.  It makes DC look like an easy commute.  The city is so large and there are lagoons running through the city. But there is something else about Abidjan that seems to trouble the heart and mind. 

When I was doing a Fulbright in Senegal, during 2003/2004 I heard about the Ivory Coast  because of the conflict between those in the North and the south where much of the wealth was at. This was the first civil conflict that ended by 2006.   Over time a  second full-blown conflict developed 2010 when the incumbent president Gbagbo lost the elections but would not leave. Ultimately this lead to the ouster of the President in 2011 by the winner of the election and his armed forces.  There were reports of people being killed in Abidjan and nearby towns during the conflict. 

The first thing that I noticed when I was riding around in Abidjan was the large number of fences at the various houses.   Upon closer inspection I saw that there were barbed wires or electrified fences around houses.  I also saw soldiers and many police in town, as if something was about to kick off.  

A gated house with Barbed Wires

  Then I began to look at bigger gates that seemed to house neighborhoods.  Essentially I was looking at gated neighborhoods.   People in the US talk gated neighborhoods in an exclusive type of way, where expensive houses and wealthy folks live.  This is different.  The gated neighborhoods in Abidjan represent a type of fear that I can only imagine.   I asked a student who lived in Abidjan during the  the conflict why these neighborhood were gated.  She told me that after the president had been taken from the country by the French (UN) before being captured by opposing army, everyone was so afraid.  I was also told that large numbers of weapons in the civil conflict had gone unaccounted for and that many people had guns in their house.  Again, this may not seem so different than what happens in the US, but it is.  In many African countries, guns are outlawed and so it breaks a peace of mind to know that violent crimes may be constrained.  

A gated neighborhood in Abidjan

 

I spoke to other young people and they told me that you could not talk about the current government leaders around party members without something bad happening to you.  So there is a fear that still creeps around the city.  We are told not to be out at night.  The size of the city makes me imagine what the last days were like before the President was captured.  People were running from place to place for cover.  The student also told me that she and her family had to flee.  They had only 2 weeks of food, which eventually ran out and they had to go out into danger to find food.   I have a very vivid imagination of this scene. 

There is also stark poverty in the city.  Yesterday I went to see the family of a friend from Dakar.  The level of poverty was like a hard slap in the face.  Look I have seen poverty up close and person in the US and Africa but sometimes the poverty in Africa just crushes your soul.  The people have nothing.. They live in small shacks and the seeing the children makes me wonder about their fate.  Even so, there is happiness and people invite you into their homes and that humanity is at the core of who we are.   The sad thing is that all around this neighbor are high-rise buildings and you can see all of the traffic on the highway.  The contrast between blatant poverty and wealth are light night and day.   I felt both helpless and angry and wanted to do something but I don’t know where to direct my anger or what to do because it seems so overwhelming.

So will there be another conflict in the Ivory Coast.  The conditions are all there for something else to kick off.  However, there one opposing force that is greater than all of the weapons that the police or army may have.  That is hope.  The young scientist will help to rebuild their country’s knowledge base.  They will serve their purpose out fixing what has been broken.  The government shut the university down for two years after the conflict ended.  They have rebuilt it through will and partnership with private industry.  The campus is so beautiful and students are hoping to return back to the university in November.  With hope there must be education and their must be discussion about the hurt that the civil war caused.   

The Engineering Center where computer model training sessions took place

Eventually there must be reconciliation and the guns must be turned in, the electrified fences and barbed wires must come down, the guards must leave the gated communities and the Sun must shine on every single person in the Ivory Coast.   

The hope for a brighter day:  Young Ivorian Scientists

Then the promise of hope will be fulfilled and true healing can begin for those who may have been injured, suffered psychological or lost a loved one.

September 27, 2013.Nothing in Vain...UPLIFT THE MECCA: Facing the Power that defines Howard's current reality

Its ON:  Friday September 27th 2013 Protest in front of Cramton Auditorium. 

Sometimes it seems that no matter what happens to university life, we must follow the flow of the river.  This river carries us towards a corporate model, where people (students, staff, faculty and alumni) are seen only as a source of income or a source of expense.  This is not much different than our ancestors for the last 500 years.  Yet the daughters and sons of the enslaved carry a latent energy source within that can only be triggered when the essence of our very soul is endangered.

In the last 4 months, our souls have faced peril, beginning with the Vice Chair of the Board of Trustees (BOT) suggesting the Howard would not be here in 3 years unless certain issues were addressed. Since then, story after story in new media outlets have sent us news of our impending end.  Yet, the chair of the BOT, President, CFO and others have said that we are not in danger.   They have preached only of good news ... balanced budgets, healthy endowment, new buildings ...

But they have not spoken about the poor morale of the university, a financial strategy to address the challenging times including sequestration or the losses of the hospital.  They have not addressed how outdated many of our classroom are, the poor research facilities, the broken business processes, new software that leaves students on the brink of eviction because they cannot get paid. They have not spoken about the debt burden that students have taken because of a 40.5% increase in undergraduate and 60% increase in graduate education over the last five year.   They have not spoken about the change in ranking from 96 in 2009 to 142 in 2013 an how that may weaken the perceived value of education and granted degrees at Howard University.  They have not spoken about the furloughs at the hospital, the suspension of our retirement funds for 3-4 months during the spring and early summer.   The have not spoken about how the 290 million dollars in bonds were downgraded and what that means.    Our souls have absorbed this news, hoping and hoping until one day.  We stop hoping.  We start believing in the voice of action......

After President Ribeau wrote a response to a Op editorial in the Washington post, internal anger from within said no more.  I don't are about the people outside of Howard, the administration or the BOT, I care about the students, staff, faculty and Alumni that love the university.   On September 4th, I sent a letter to the President, CFO and Secretary to the BOT, Provost and Deans letting them know that a petition was being started, which demanded answers from them about the state of the university.

http://www.change.org/petitions/uplift-the-mecca-stakeholders-concerns-to-the-howard-university-administration-and-board-of-trustees

Since that time, more than 400 students, staff, faculty, alumni and friends have signed the electronic petition.   But this is not just about a petition, it is about change.   The real source of power at Howard University is the BOT.  They are responsible for overseeing all of the financial matters and approving all policies at Howard University.  This group is largely absent from campus and yet responsible for everything it seems.  When they come to campus, they meet only with selected people and it is almost impossible to ask for an audience with them.  They have unlimited tenure and can remain for long periods of time.  Who are they accountable to?  They select the president or CFO with no vetting from the larger community.  The real power is on the executive committee where all of the real and lasting decisions are made.  I do not believe that even the Howard faculty and student trustees can sit in on the executive sessions.  A few years ago, the BOT chair, Barry Rand came to faculty senate retreat.  He spoke, and then left...so arrogant.   How can he be the CEO of AARP????  Trustee Vernon Jordan Where are you???? We need your help!!

The next step was a silent protest when the BOT came to campus for fall convocation.    When I suggested this earlier in the summer, it was met by stiff resistance from some faculty who said that it would be more negative news.  But what about our voice????  Why should we just continue to internalize all of the stuff that others have brought upon us?  Meanwhile, groups and individuals such as the HU2016 and beyond, and editorials from Cameron Clarkson.. a talented senior at the Hilltop newspaper, Anthony Miller, president of HUSA were working to bring about change on numerous issues at HU.  Working with these talented individuals made the protest possible.  Small groups of us worked on protest signs Wednesday and Thursday.

Finally, Friday September 27 from Noon-1 PM the missing energy and feelings came back as students, staff and faculty spoke and chanted slogans. The Howard University police were real cool..Thanks Chief James.  Then at 12:45 pm the President, his cabinet and the BOT emerged.  At that time we all chanted SOLUTIONS ... NOT EXCUSES.  The president and provost looked so stoic and the BOT looked at us with surprise.    In facing them, we faced our internal fear.

Now change is possible.

Next Step.  continue to get the petition signed.  Demand a response to the petition.  Work for greater transparency and accountability with the BOT and administration... have the BOT meet with the community and not selected individuals...MAKE HOWARD A UNIVERSITY AGAIN.....MAKE THE BOT HUMAN AGAIN....AMEND THE CHARTER.....

Tropical Depression 9 Threatens Cape Verde tonight

Sunday 4:45 EST Tropical Depression 9 just West of Cape Verde Islands

Over the last 4 days, me and my colleagues in Senegal, Cape Verde, Guinea and Gambia have been following a wave that began in Northern Ivory Coast last Wednesday and emerged off the coast of West Africa last night.  The best computer forecast models from Europe, the US and Canada and our own model simulations at Howard U and San Jose State U have suggested that a tropical cyclone would develop.  There were numerous problems with the forecast because it is extremely difficult to model how these disturbances make their transition from land to ocean.  Yesterday the models were saying that Cape Verde Islands would be impacted by this storm on Monday and Tuesday.  Today it was clear, that the impacts would begin tonight and tomorrow.  Tonight the first rainbands are on their way into the Capital of Cape Verde, Praia which has the largest population.  However, the entire country will be impacted by the storm although the southern islands will be impacted the most.

The real problem with this region is that there are very few observations, there are no aircraft to go and investigate the storm, there are no radars to know where the center of the storm is at.   While the storm was over land, satellite based rainfall estimates show very heavy rain falling over Senegal, it is impossible to warn people to get out of the way because everything happens in real time.   It is imperative that we build an observation network in Africa, first and foremost to save lives second to improve the model forecasts.    This has been a very strange year, with dry occurring over central parts of West Africa (Sahel) and wet conditions in coastal regions.  The African easterly waves are developing further south, where there are few observations and then strengthening at the coast.

Our very best models must be initialized with good observations.  Sadly in 2013 this is still not possible in much of Africa.  What are we waiting for????

Why expensive tuition will undermine graduate education and research at Howard University

Students go to graduate school to pursue areas of interest in a specific discipline .   They also serve another important role: helping to expand the boundaries of knowledge through research as it relates to a particular professor (especially the doctorate degree).  The time to doctorate is generally 5-7 years meaning that there must be committed resources to support a full-time student.

Since approximately 2008, the tuition has increased at a rate of 15% per year.  In the last year the rate of tuition increase was reduced to 5%.  For comparison, in the fall 2007-2008 graduate tuition per semester was 8,087.50 or about $16, 167 per year. The part-time per credit hour rate was $551.00.   Currently tuition is 15,272 per semester or $30, 545 per year.  The part-time per credit hour rate was $1700.00.  This is nearly a doubling of tuition rates in 6 years and more than a tripling of the per credit hour rate.  It there anything else in the economy that has doubled or tripled in price in 6 years ????  Gold, gas prices (maybe)...  

Given the large percentage of minority students at Howard University, and the fact that only 25-30% of student receive graduate support (teaching assistant, research assistant, fellowship, tuition remission) how would these students pay tuition and also support themselves in one of the most expensive cities in the country?  Loans or full-time work while going to graduate school.  That solution means high debt after graduating or longer times to graduation because of working.  It also makes it difficult for the faculty member working with someone who is working full time to get research done in a timely manner.  It also puts too much stress on the student.

But the problem for faculty goes even deeper:  how do we get the same amount of research done with few students that we can fund?  This is a point that the leadership clearly does not understand.  You can bring in new faculty members but they still have to teach and they need graduate students to help them for specific projects.  Funding 3 students with an average $23,000 stipend in Washington DC is approximately $200,000 per year when you add in fringe and indirect cost on the stipend.  This is a million for 5 years. Really???? At the beginning of their graduate student education these students must take classes, pass their PhD qualifying exam, and put together a dissertation proposal.  So essentially the first year and at least part of the second year only minimal research can be accomplished with new students.  It is a gamble because the students may take interest in something else, not do well in classes or not pass their exam the first time.  So research productivity is marginal during the first 2 years.

The apparent solution is to hire a postdoc who has already finished their degree and is focused on research only.  The math works out:  A typical postdoc will cost 55,000-60,000 in the DC metro area but their fringe benefits are higher and indirect cost turn out to be closer to 100,000 per year as compared to 70,000 for a graduate student.  However a postdoc is definitely more productive spending all of their time on focused research, and postdocs are typically hired for 2 or 3 years.  They make it more likely for you to get published and compete for future funding.  The problem is workforce development.  The graduate student develops a niche under a professor-- a postdoc already has a niche .  Graduate students are expected to become future professors, researchers and innovators and eventually distinguished alumni.  These students make the reputation for the institution.  In some areas like the physical sciences, minority PhDs make up less than 5% of the discipline with doctorate degrees; their presence is needed for the changing demographics of the United States.

So faculty members are faced with a choice of either funding fewer graduate students, or funding postdocs.  If you want to focus on research -- fund the postdocs.  If you want to strengthen graduate education, fund the students.  Seems easy.  But the poor research infrastructure (physical) and processes associated with research (on-boarding,  purchasing....) makes research and supporting students/postdoc very difficult at Howard while shifting most of the burden onto the faculty member.  

So some faculty just give up and stop research altogether or limit their research.  Two years ago while sitting on the graduate advisory committee, I suggested that we reverse the tuition trend and take the tuition back to the 2011 rate or even lower if we could.  I have not seen where the increasing tuition revenue has gone into the infrastructure or benefited the students.  In fact given our funding model at Howard, higher tuition essentially reduces the numbers of teaching assistants and tuition remissions adding further pressure to a weak system of funding graduate education.

The University's Tuition and Rates Committee (TRAC), which is supposed to be made up of faculty, staff, students and administrators (www.howard.edu/newsroom/releases/2013/20130131-BoardApprovesTuitionRatesforGraduateProfessionalPrograms.html), but only had deans on it this year has reduced the rate of tuition increases at Howard.  However, this committee which needs to have its full composition, must consider the full implications of the current and future tuition rates.... 

• Fewer students who can no longer afford to come to Howard for graduate education.
• Students who take longer to complete the doctorate degree.
• High debt burden for graduate students.
• Fewer students undertaking research at Howard; Reduced ability by faculty to support more students on grants because of tuition costs.
• Less productivity from faculty who support fewer students.
• Fewer PhD Alumni from Howard University. 

The goal should be to make graduate education as cheap as possible, helping to increase Howard's innovative and discovery driven research by faculty and students thereby increasing research revenue to the university.  The revenue should not be sought through tuition!!   

Tropical Storm Dorian -- The first Cape Verde Storm

Tropical Depression 4 - later Dorian

Over the next 8-10 weeks disturbances from West Africa will increase in intensity as they emerge from the coast every 3-5 days.  By the middle of August, it is possible that every 1 out of 3  disturbances will develop into a tropical depression, storm or hurricane as it moves across the Atlantic.  Some fraction of these will become major hurricanes.  Throughout the summer thus far the steering currents for tropical cyclones have been been oriented to carry storms from east to west.  Whether this pattern will continue is uncertain, but if it significant fraction of these tropical cyclones may threaten the Caribbean, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Eastern US seaboard and Bermuda.
Some of these disturbances will cause flash flooding and wind damage before leaving the African continent threatening life and property.

When I look at all of the data, it is still difficult to know if the genesis of Dorian is a sign of things to come.  The dust coming from the Sahara has been plentiful making the overall environment unfavorable for tropical disturbances to develop into tropical cyclones.  The next 10 days or so will tell much about the month of August.

Cape Verde storms as they are often called form in August because the waters have warmed, the African Easterly Waves are more intense and dust retreats to the north.   When this happens, they can pose a threat to the people of the Cape Verde Islands-- especially the capital (Praia).

Tropical Cyclone Dorian is expected to continue west over the next 5 days.

5 day track of Tropical Storm Dorian

But as you can tell, unless it is picked up by a trough, it will continue to move west with an aim on the Bahamas, the keys and Florida.  The GFS forecast has it turning north and possibly threatening the East Coast but it is much too early to tell and the skill of the models are not great for tropical systems 144 hours out. 

The early projections were 13-20 storms.  The next few weeks will tell if that is an accurate call, but I expect the waves to amplify as they move across West Africa.  The waters will be warmer and but the flow over the western atlantic will become more complicated, with vertical shear and mid-latitude troughs having a greater influence on the strength and direction of westward moving tropical disturbances.   
But for reference, in
2005 there were 27 named storms - by July 25th there were 6 named storms - today we are at 4
2008 there were 17 named storms - by July 25th there were 4 named storms- today we are at 4
2010 there were 19 named storms - by July 25th there were 2 named storms- today we are at 4
2011 there were 18 named storms - by July 25th, there were 3 named storms- today we are at 4
2012 there were 19 named storms - by July 25th there were 4 named storms- today we are at 4


So if there is going to be a busy season, we are on par with other busy seasons and should not let our guards down.  Remember.. Hurricanes are the deadliest and most destructive forms of storms because of their scale, power, various forms of destruction (wind, flooding, storm surge) and duration. 

Stay tuned,  the Cape Verde season has kicked off.

A weakened Chantal may be real trouble for Haiti today

This morning I woke up 3 AM for a bathroom break and happened to look at the structure of TS Chantal.  It had fallen apart.  I was not surprised because over the last few year, Tropical cyclone intensity in the Caribbean sea have been very difficult to forecast.  Since then, the thunderstorms have returned but the question remain is there a center of circulation or is it an open wave?

Visible image of Tropical Storm Chantal at 9:15 EST July 10

I believe that the circulation is still intact, but if you look closely at the track, it crosses just south of Haiti and with this Chantal, the heaviest rains and winds have been to the north of the center.  What this means is that Haiti should feel the full force of whatever Chantal has to offer, even in a weakened state.  Not obvious to the human eye, is that the mountains of Haiti force more thunderstorms because the air must rise and in the process cool and condense leading to more rain.  When the rain does fall, it comes down on a land surface that is 98% deforested according to some studies leading to strong runoff and flooding posing a threat to those in the way of rushing water and swollen rivers.

Also not obvious to the human eye from satellite is the aftermath of the Earthquake in 2010 and the displacement of so many people.  Because the tent cities or the establishment of stable homes for many Haitians remains out of the news we are unaware of what the people may face over the next 24 hours.  What is clear is that as of last October, when the rains of Hurricane Sandy impacted Haiti 54 people died as a result of the flooding.  The problem remains the same: unsafe conditions for the most vulnerable.  So while Chantal will not be a news maker because it is not a major hurricane and for that matter maybe only a weak tropical storm its impacts are likely to pose a serious challenge and threat to Haiti before it moves away later tonight.

A predicted busy hurricane season getting off to a fast start.

Tropical Storm Chantal just to the East of the Leeward Islands , Monday July 8, 2013

The 3rd named storm of the year, Chantal, is moving towards Barbados and the other Leeward Islands this evening.  Over the next 5 days it is expected to impact the Dominican Republic, potentially Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, Keys and possibly the SE US.  The environment is not great for this storm and it is likely to be impacted by mountains the vertical wind shear, which should keep it as a minimal hurricane.

National Hurricane 5 Day track Tropical Cyclone Chantal

Does this mean that we should not be worried about this storm??  Absolutely not.  Flooding with tropical disturbances continues to be a serious threat especially to Haiti which is expected to be near the path of Chantal.   For example, nearly 3000 persons died with Tropical Storm Jeanne went over northern parts of Haiti in 2004 before going on to be a hurricane. 

The science behind hurricane intensity has many uncertainties, and the models that are used to predict future strength can vary.  For example, over the next 5 days the Canadian model shows Chantal moving near Haiti, across Cuba and into Florida.  The ECMWF model, which correctly predicted Super Storm Sandy has Chantal fading out quickly, and the Hurricane WRF model shows the storm being weakened when passing over Haiti, only to gather strength off the coast of Florida.  The models are not perfect which means that you must still prepare if you live in coastal regions.  

What concerns me about the upcoming season, is that the weather disturbances in West Africa have picked up in the last week.  We normally see this happen in early August.   Forecast models are suggesting that the next two tropical disturbance may further develop later this week and early next week. Saharan dust, which tends to inhibit storms because of the dry, stable air does not seem effective at present.  Over the next month, the dust amounts will decrease and move further north.  At present steering currents for tropical cyclones are mainly west which would not favor storms turning north over the Atlantic but rather heading towards the Caribbean and Eastern US seaboard.  Sea surface temperatures are continuing to warm as the summer progresses and El Nino (which inhibits hurricanes through increased wind shear) is not present.  

 NOAA has projected 13 to 20 named storms this season.  Based on the current pattern this seems on target.  This may be bordering on conservative given that we have had 19, 18 and 19 named storms during 2010, 2011 and 2012.  The upswing in tropical cyclones over the last 18 years continues.  Its not too early to be prepared.  Stay tuned.. we are just beginning.