This morning I woke up 3 AM for a bathroom break and happened to look at the structure of TS Chantal. It had fallen apart. I was not surprised because over the last few year, Tropical cyclone intensity in the Caribbean sea have been very difficult to forecast. Since then, the thunderstorms have returned but the question remain is there a center of circulation or is it an open wave?
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| Visible image of Tropical Storm Chantal at 9:15 EST July 10 |
I believe that the circulation is still intact, but if you look closely at the track, it crosses just south of Haiti and with this Chantal, the heaviest rains and winds have been to the north of the center. What this means is that Haiti should feel the full force of whatever Chantal has to offer, even in a weakened state. Not obvious to the human eye, is that the mountains of Haiti force more thunderstorms because the air must rise and in the process cool and condense leading to more rain. When the rain does fall, it comes down on a land surface that is 98% deforested according to some studies leading to strong runoff and flooding posing a threat to those in the way of rushing water and swollen rivers.
Also not obvious to the human eye from satellite is the aftermath of the Earthquake in 2010 and the displacement of so many people. Because the tent cities or the establishment of stable homes for many Haitians remains out of the news we are unaware of what the people may face over the next 24 hours. What is clear is that as of last October, when the rains of Hurricane Sandy impacted Haiti 54 people died as a result of the flooding. The problem remains the same: unsafe conditions for the most vulnerable. So while Chantal will not be a news maker because it is not a major hurricane and for that matter maybe only a weak tropical storm its impacts are likely to pose a serious challenge and threat to Haiti before it moves away later tonight.
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