A predicted busy hurricane season getting off to a fast start.

Tropical Storm Chantal just to the East of the Leeward Islands , Monday July 8, 2013

The 3rd named storm of the year, Chantal, is moving towards Barbados and the other Leeward Islands this evening.  Over the next 5 days it is expected to impact the Dominican Republic, potentially Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, Keys and possibly the SE US.  The environment is not great for this storm and it is likely to be impacted by mountains the vertical wind shear, which should keep it as a minimal hurricane.

National Hurricane 5 Day track Tropical Cyclone Chantal

Does this mean that we should not be worried about this storm??  Absolutely not.  Flooding with tropical disturbances continues to be a serious threat especially to Haiti which is expected to be near the path of Chantal.   For example, nearly 3000 persons died with Tropical Storm Jeanne went over northern parts of Haiti in 2004 before going on to be a hurricane. 

The science behind hurricane intensity has many uncertainties, and the models that are used to predict future strength can vary.  For example, over the next 5 days the Canadian model shows Chantal moving near Haiti, across Cuba and into Florida.  The ECMWF model, which correctly predicted Super Storm Sandy has Chantal fading out quickly, and the Hurricane WRF model shows the storm being weakened when passing over Haiti, only to gather strength off the coast of Florida.  The models are not perfect which means that you must still prepare if you live in coastal regions.  

What concerns me about the upcoming season, is that the weather disturbances in West Africa have picked up in the last week.  We normally see this happen in early August.   Forecast models are suggesting that the next two tropical disturbance may further develop later this week and early next week. Saharan dust, which tends to inhibit storms because of the dry, stable air does not seem effective at present.  Over the next month, the dust amounts will decrease and move further north.  At present steering currents for tropical cyclones are mainly west which would not favor storms turning north over the Atlantic but rather heading towards the Caribbean and Eastern US seaboard.  Sea surface temperatures are continuing to warm as the summer progresses and El Nino (which inhibits hurricanes through increased wind shear) is not present.  

 NOAA has projected 13 to 20 named storms this season.  Based on the current pattern this seems on target.  This may be bordering on conservative given that we have had 19, 18 and 19 named storms during 2010, 2011 and 2012.  The upswing in tropical cyclones over the last 18 years continues.  Its not too early to be prepared.  Stay tuned.. we are just beginning.