Tropical Storm Arthur forms and projected to move up the east coast (July 4-6)

Visible Image of Tropical Storm Arthur 1:15 EST

The first Atlantic Tropical Cyclone - Arthur,  formed today and is expected move up the east coast this week.  While it is currently at Tropical Storm with 40 MPH winds, the outflow is good and it is expected to become a hurricane in the next 48 hours or so.  The models are currently carrying it up the east coast with the primary impacts coming near the Outer Banks.  But don't get caught up on the path of the storm.  It may well create rough ocean conditions and rip currents even on Friday, when it may be very far from the coast impacting VA, MD, DEL and possibly NJ beaches depending on the intensity and size of the storm.  If you are going to the beaches, please keep this in mind, especially if you have children and if you know young adults who may not heed the warnings.  Three young people got caught up in rip currents last year when I was as the beach and one of them died.

Projected Path for Tropical Storm Arthur

This is a reminder, that although the current hurricane forecast is for below normal tropical cyclones in part because of El Nino conditions (warmer temperatures) in the Eastern/Central Pacific Ocean which is expected to produce more westerly shear.

Ocean Temperatures (top) and temperature anomalies bottom with yellow showing warming temps.

This means that the winds at 15,000-40,000 ft are expected to be disruptive to tropical cyclones making them less likely to form or to become major hurricanes.   The problem is that this is primarily true to for tropical latitudes (10-25 degrees latitude) and for disturbances from West Africa.  Not all tropical cyclones will come from African disturbances (such as TS Arthur) and further, hurricanes are discrete events which means that there will be times when they form and the wind shear is low.   Finally our understanding of the science around the genesis of tropical cyclones and their life-cycles is incomplete.

With the advent of Hurricane Season on June 1, make sure that you are ready if you live in coastal regions and even if you don't during the summer severe thunderstorms often occur and have the potential to knock out the power.

With the development of TS Arthur -- The hurricane season has begun.