What's going on? Issac?

This morning, there is a much confusion about Issac as there is about the economy.  Where is the center of this storm?  This reminds me of Tomas in 2011 when it was unclear how the storm would evolve once it reached the Caribbean sea.  Issac has all of the good environmental conditions that should make it intensify and yet there has been no action -- nothing to write home about.  Over night the center of the storm seems to have moved south and the hurricane hunters are finding multiple centers of rotating air.  Well maybe there is still a lot to learn about hurricane intensity. 

There is still the feeling that the storm will impact Haiti sometime tomorrow and then move towards the northwest.  However the confidence in the track and intensity are not so high in my opinion. 

The other issue:  Focus.  There is more stories on how the republican convention might be disrupted by Issac than about how the population of Haiti will be disrupted.  There are hundreds of thousands of people in Haiti living in camps. CNN says 421,000 people.   The convention will be moved somewhere else and the loss of life will be minimal.  But for the people of Haiti, it is not possible to move anywhere except away from local dangers such as rivers that will overflow.  They cannot run from the wind or rain if Issac were to make landfall.  Even with the new houses that have been built by the government it is not enough to cover all of the people as it will take more time to provide shelter for many of those who survived the Earthquake.

In a strange way, the longer it takes for Issac to develop, the more dry air that is available and the longer it takes for the center to come together, the better for the people of Haiti.  They need more time to protect the vulnerable and rebuild houses and neighborhoods.  But this must happen quickly, because eventually a hurricane will strike Port Au Prince.

Haitan Camp in Port Au Prince (Washington Post)

I think that the ECMWF forecast has the right trend and that there may be a more westerly track to this storm.  Even that is uncertain, but everyone from Haiti, Cuba, Florida and the Gulf States need to be ready.  It is still too early in the hurricane season and pattern of high pressure over the Eastern and Central Atlantic has been pretty persistent over the last few months.  Later in September, the evolving El Nino should bring more shear and the frequency of troughs should help to steer some of these storms out to sea.  But uncertainty is in the air, we just have to live with it and stay vigilant.   No of us are in the clear -- even in Washington DC.