Massive Dust storm erupts over Senegal, Mauritania and Cape Verde

Dust covering Senegal, Gambia and Cape Verde Friday Morning 2/28/14

Over the last 3 days we have been forecasting a large dust storm that was to hit Senegal yesterday around noon based on dust model forecast that we have been running at Howard University.  I have been discussing the situation with scientist and forecasters in Senegal  and surely enough, large dust plumes began streaming over Senegal yesterday afternoon.   My colleague from Dakar sent me some data this morning and it turns out that dust concentrations (PM10) are approaching 900 ug/m3.  If such amounts were found in the United States, everyone would be forced stay inside all day.

This dust likely carries pathogens which can make one sick, but the amounts are so large that they are likely to cause asthma attacks and destroy the protective lining within the average persons nasal passage making one susceptible to illness.  I have checked station data in all of the countries and visibility is less than 1 mile, meaning that airplane and sea travel are likely difficult this morning.

While we are not sure if the dust particles carry meningitis (only one report in the literature), it certainly forces people inside which can cause the spread of the deadly disease which it is estimated that at any time 10-20% of the population is carrying but in a dormant state.   Large quantities of dust are expected to continue for the next 1-2 days before subsiding.

The model that we have been using since January 1st has been very accurate on predicting the outbreak of dust this winter.  We hope to verify the results against ground data and to help to get the model installed in Senegal where it can be used to protect vulnerable populations.  I am guessing that the urban population may be better protected than the rural population, with electricity and access to media outlets is more difficult.

Strangely enough, dust storms in West Africa are caused by cold disturbances at 10,000 ft that move south from Europe and the North Atlantic.  These disturbances cause the winds near the ground to accelerate causing large quantities of dust from the Sahara Desert to be lifted and move south.  Unfortunately the highest concentrations dust is trapped near ground.

Ceilometer observations at Dakar (UCAD)  of high dust particles near the ground for 2/27 and 2/28

The disturbances are certainly predictable but the quantity of dust lifted into the air is uncertain.   The biggest challenge is getting the word out to the population and public health sectors about possible hazardous/dangerous levels of dust and keeping people safe.