A weakened Chantal may be real trouble for Haiti today

This morning I woke up 3 AM for a bathroom break and happened to look at the structure of TS Chantal.  It had fallen apart.  I was not surprised because over the last few year, Tropical cyclone intensity in the Caribbean sea have been very difficult to forecast.  Since then, the thunderstorms have returned but the question remain is there a center of circulation or is it an open wave?

Visible image of Tropical Storm Chantal at 9:15 EST July 10

I believe that the circulation is still intact, but if you look closely at the track, it crosses just south of Haiti and with this Chantal, the heaviest rains and winds have been to the north of the center.  What this means is that Haiti should feel the full force of whatever Chantal has to offer, even in a weakened state.  Not obvious to the human eye, is that the mountains of Haiti force more thunderstorms because the air must rise and in the process cool and condense leading to more rain.  When the rain does fall, it comes down on a land surface that is 98% deforested according to some studies leading to strong runoff and flooding posing a threat to those in the way of rushing water and swollen rivers.

Also not obvious to the human eye from satellite is the aftermath of the Earthquake in 2010 and the displacement of so many people.  Because the tent cities or the establishment of stable homes for many Haitians remains out of the news we are unaware of what the people may face over the next 24 hours.  What is clear is that as of last October, when the rains of Hurricane Sandy impacted Haiti 54 people died as a result of the flooding.  The problem remains the same: unsafe conditions for the most vulnerable.  So while Chantal will not be a news maker because it is not a major hurricane and for that matter maybe only a weak tropical storm its impacts are likely to pose a serious challenge and threat to Haiti before it moves away later tonight.

A predicted busy hurricane season getting off to a fast start.

Tropical Storm Chantal just to the East of the Leeward Islands , Monday July 8, 2013

The 3rd named storm of the year, Chantal, is moving towards Barbados and the other Leeward Islands this evening.  Over the next 5 days it is expected to impact the Dominican Republic, potentially Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, Keys and possibly the SE US.  The environment is not great for this storm and it is likely to be impacted by mountains the vertical wind shear, which should keep it as a minimal hurricane.

National Hurricane 5 Day track Tropical Cyclone Chantal

Does this mean that we should not be worried about this storm??  Absolutely not.  Flooding with tropical disturbances continues to be a serious threat especially to Haiti which is expected to be near the path of Chantal.   For example, nearly 3000 persons died with Tropical Storm Jeanne went over northern parts of Haiti in 2004 before going on to be a hurricane. 

The science behind hurricane intensity has many uncertainties, and the models that are used to predict future strength can vary.  For example, over the next 5 days the Canadian model shows Chantal moving near Haiti, across Cuba and into Florida.  The ECMWF model, which correctly predicted Super Storm Sandy has Chantal fading out quickly, and the Hurricane WRF model shows the storm being weakened when passing over Haiti, only to gather strength off the coast of Florida.  The models are not perfect which means that you must still prepare if you live in coastal regions.  

What concerns me about the upcoming season, is that the weather disturbances in West Africa have picked up in the last week.  We normally see this happen in early August.   Forecast models are suggesting that the next two tropical disturbance may further develop later this week and early next week. Saharan dust, which tends to inhibit storms because of the dry, stable air does not seem effective at present.  Over the next month, the dust amounts will decrease and move further north.  At present steering currents for tropical cyclones are mainly west which would not favor storms turning north over the Atlantic but rather heading towards the Caribbean and Eastern US seaboard.  Sea surface temperatures are continuing to warm as the summer progresses and El Nino (which inhibits hurricanes through increased wind shear) is not present.  

 NOAA has projected 13 to 20 named storms this season.  Based on the current pattern this seems on target.  This may be bordering on conservative given that we have had 19, 18 and 19 named storms during 2010, 2011 and 2012.  The upswing in tropical cyclones over the last 18 years continues.  Its not too early to be prepared.  Stay tuned.. we are just beginning.   

Why Howard University and HBCUs are critical to the Diaspora and must Survive

HU GEAR-UP student working on Wind turbine model

I have just returned from three weeks of research in Senegal, West Africa.  Upon leaving, stories in the media about the state of Howard erupted.  While I am sure that I can find a job at another university were HU to close, that would only be a small part of the a much greater loss.  This is because I would not be in Dakar, Senegal working on air quality, climate change and the linkages to health were it not for a a Historically Black College - Lincoln University in PA.

You see, I am not part of some legacy whose image comes black and white TV.  No I am the legacy of those parents who migrated north to Philly for a better life, and for a short while it seem possible.  But the same racism that they escaped from in the south, took a different disguise in the north leading to segregation , decaying public schools, housing, increased crime and drugs and eventually the urban nightmare for many black folks living in project developments.  My brothers and sisters was raised with the dream of going to "college" and all 6 of us eventually did.  But as always, the devil is in the details.

For me, my professors at Lincoln University were my guardians (as my parents had passed on beyond this life by 11th grade) and helped to get me back on track after being a "ship with sails that was lost with no wind and no direction."  Not only did they inspire me as role models (African American professors - teaching Quantum Physics, thermodynamics, mathematical physics) but they told me that I could achieve because they could see the gifts within me that I could not.  At any rate, I decided in my Junior year that I would study drought in West Africa.  I saw a program on PBS NOVA which discussed the causes of the multi-year drought in West Africa and the story begins.  27 years later I find myself under the swelter sun with students from Cheikh Anta Diop University (UCAD) and Howard University putting up a meteorological tower getting sunburned, pondering how to build the climate network in Senegal and Africa in general.

I have been coming to Senegal consistently for the last 10 years for research projects, but I always include Goree Island as the annual visit.   When I bring students, they must come also.  This year had a different twist.  Because I went with 7 Howard University Students.  Four were from the Gear-UP STEM program and the three students that I brought.  In sum a powerful group of science and engineering students (2 chemistry majors,  1 double chemistry/biology major, 1 chemical engineering major, 1 mechanical engineering major , 1 civil engineering major, 1 physics major).

 As we were there, we realized that paradox of being at Goree and being part of Howard U or any HBCU.  It was the wicked institution of slavery that produced deep scars within black people throughout America and diaspora and it HBCU that worked to heal partially some of the scars.  Going to Goree is more than a reminder of what happened for 3 to 4 hundred years, it is also whispers and screams of our continued responsibility to the disenfranchised, the hopeless and to future generations.  Because we know that when we visit Goree, that we have been given that unique moment because of at least 1 ancestor who carried the seed of hope, strength, tenacity and life so that we may fulfill our purpose every single day.

HU Student V. Cooper at the Door of No Return

The problems that Black people face from Washington DC to Port Au Prince Haiti, or Guinee Conakry can be addressed by HBCU which bring a deep-time historical perspective for solving these problems.  I for one do not think that they should be close, but rather transformed and further enabled to help address the problems of the 21st century.  Yes the curriculum must be revamped for partaking relevant conversations of these times.  Students must be armed to provide solutions to address: food security, renewable energy, sustainable economies, the environment and climate change, poverty alleviation, globalization, public policy, global health and health disparities.  But they must also understand social responsibility, ethics and culture and feel humanity in their soul.  I feel this at HU.

Over the last, three weeks, I took a different spin and began working with the microbiology lab and hospitals in Senegal.   I have a very keen research interest in Saharan dust, where more than a trillion lbs leave Africa each year.  This dust can impact climate, hurricane strength (both positively and negatively), atmospheric chemistry (production of Nitrous Oxide, heterogeneous chemical reactions), air traffic   and most importantly human health.  It is a major cause of respiratory disease and linked to Meningitis in West Africa.  Since 2012, we have observed a different flow pattern coming into Senegal from Western Sahara and Morocco.   The ceilometer observations show that small dust particles are trapped between the ground and approximately 1500 ft.  So while looking up the sky looks blue, but look horizontally and you can see the dust haze.  

Dust Haze over Downtown Dakar, June 26, 2013 when President Obama Arrives

We believe that the size of the dust particles are between 1-2 microns and by comparison a typical hair strand is 10 to 100 times larger.  These small dust particles can get past the hair in your nose and make it to your respiratory system.  So we went to roof of the lab and took dust samples off our solar panels since it is slowly falling by gravity.   We were interested in the types of bacteria on the dust and the types of gases that the dust produced.  We were also interested to know if meningococcal bacteria was on the dust, since we are breathing this in every day.

Results:  Lots of Bacteria on the dust.

Bacteria growth from Collected Dust Particles

Gas such as hydrogen Sulfide and Nitrogen are being emitted by bacteria on the dust (Yeah!! it is a working hypothesis that I have had for the last couple of years for observed ozone spikes).

Good News:  No Meningococcal bacteria was found on the dust samples.

I ended this research trip with a visit  to the hospital to talk to one of the doctors in infectious diseases.  I wanted to know there were Meningitis outbreak in 2012 based on the anomalous flow that we observed.  The answer was yes.  In fact during the Spring and early summer of 2012, there were nearly 1000 suspected cased of Meningitis in Senegal.  It was just below the epidemic stages.  But here is the kicker.... It is a new strain of meningitis... W135.  The population has not been vaccinated from it.

So here is my working hypothesis... The new strain is coming on the dust particles from Western Sahara and being carried down the coast by anomalous flow.  The events are coming in pulses, weakening the respiratory system making people susceptible to Meningitis-W135.   With the rainy season approaching the risks should go down.  However, next spring...watch out.

We at HU will be working on a early warning system with our colleagues in Senegal using models, observations in real-time and analyzing dust each month along with our connections to the public health system.    While my original intention was related only to the physical sciences, it has now evolved into the social and human systems.



The night that I left Senegal, I call to say goodbye to my friend Mariama whose daughter Adja is 18 months.

The problem is that she could barely breath.  The asthma had caught up to her again.  While she has medicine it does not seem effective with all of the dust in the environment.  Sometimes she has not had the money to by the medicine.  So the task in my mind are very clear:  (1) help to protect the present population from weather hazards such as dust, flooding; (2) protect future (Adja) populations from climate change which will likely have a very negative effect on the projected billion plus population in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050. 

In summary, HBCUs are critically needed to help address local and global issues.  We need our administration to be accountable, responsible, forward looking and helping to produce today and tomorrow's scholars (students and faculty).  This is not a question of being like a Ivy league, Pac-10 or Big 10 school.  It is about education and addressing societal needs taking into account the perspectives of race globally and getting to work.  There is a place for everyone at this dinner table.    

Mandela, Barack, Senegal and climate change

I have been in Senegal for nearly 3 weeks now and going back tomorrow.    The big news is that Nelson Mandela is on life support and Barack Obama is visiting Senegal.  Just saw him ride by 10 minutes ago waving at us behind the gates at the University.  Before coming to Senegal, President Obama laid out his plan for starting to deal with climate change.  In Senegal, he will be trying to spur investment for development and new opportunities.  In the two situations, he faces considerable challenges in part because the concept of sustainability is so hard to define.  In addition climate change and economic development are partners which cannot be separated.  Finally the perception of winners versus losers is a thorny situation in both situations.

Lets tackle Senegal first since the president is here.  Everyone is very hyped to see President Obama.  They people love him and Michelle; President Obama maybe more than their own president.  He represents the thing that people need the most:  HOPE.    The problem is the disconnect between those who have resources and access and those who do not.  For example, I met a guy in a shop yesterday who was angry because he could not go to work for 3 days because of the security with president Obama.  He said he is too poor not to work and did not understand why he was a suffering.  In another case, the main road to the city is closed and the traffic was murder this morning.  The taxi driver was extremely angry because he has to be in traffic and use more diesel that he cannot afford.  I am sure that he will not see what is really going on and the levels of poverty that really exist.  If he could, he would see people cheering for him to give them the hope that they lack.   When President Obama drove past us on the Cornish today, we were behind the gates as the police would not let us walk out to the main road to wave at him.  I hope that he was aware of the created sense of separation.

This brings me to the issue of investment.  You have to know what is happening on the ground if you really want to make a difference.  There is a significant wedge in class here in Senegal with those at the bottom having little upward mobility.  So he must have smart investments, where there is transparency and accountability otherwise it would amount to exploitation.

Now on to Climate -- Senegal is in a semi-arid environment where rainfall variability is high, and precipitation changes in the future remain unknown.  What we do know, is that temperature changes in the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans will determine how rainfall changes to a large extent.  The real problem is that there is no observing system in Senegal or in much of Africa for the most.  We have to build this system now because there are too many vulnerable people not to.  Satellites are not the answer as they have their own set of problems.

So last week with the help of the students, we put up the 10 meter tower.  I would like to propose developing an observing system with these towers spaced every 100 km apart initially and then 50 km apart in Senegal.  Such towers could run for 10-15 years providing the necessary measurements to know how climate change is unfolding in Senegal.  We need these towers across all of Sahel and eventually the continent.  The goal is to get an observing system in place within 10 years.   It will take many stakeholders to make this happen (government, university, NGOs and citizens) but the potential investment is clearly worth it.  Because no matter what investment you are planning, climate change also has the potential to unravel it as the dry period in the late 21st century undermined the period following the independence of many countries in West Africa.

Finally this brings me to Mandela.  He represents more than hope -- He is the actualization of the human spirit at its very best.  He has inspired beyond hope, pain and struggle.  While he may be struggling with health a present, his spirit is fully intact and will remain so no matter what.

To bring Senegal and other countries to where they need to be will require sustained efforts that work in the best interest of the people.  When President Obama is no longer in office, he needs to continue to come back Senegal to see if what he envisioned is on track.  Senegal and Africa need more than one night stands.  They need true and equal partnership where class and race are not hidden or ignored.

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

 

This morning the entire east coast is on alert for possibly the storm of this century, even worst 

than Irene or Floyd of the 1990s.  This storm is going to make a hard left turn sometime in the next 36 hours and slam into the coast of NJ or Northern Delaware.  Even Maryland is not out of the question.  Unlike past hurricanes, this one is more like a northeaster that will impact areas from Washington to NYC for approximately 2 days. 

Significant power loss is expected for millions, dangerous storm surge and contamination of water.

Beginning tonight through late Tuesday evening, many if not most areas between NYC and Washington will see sustained winds of 30+ miles per hour.  A half foot to 1 foot of rain water will fall in many areas making roads non-passable, flooding homes and causing rivers to rise.   Because of the complexity of urban, rural and the natural systems it is impossible to know exactly where the blind-spots are at.  In the next 6-12 hours people in affected areas should make sure that:

1.)  They know where to go if flooding or infrastructure failure should occur (shelters).

2.)  Charge up all devices if you do not have a generator and limit your talking once the storm begins 

so that you can make emergency calls if possible for help or to briefly check on loved ones.  No times for long conversation.

3.)  Write down all important phone numbers in a notebook that you keep somewhere so that you can contact people.

4.)  Have a battery powered radio to keep up with news if electricity should go down.

5.) Have your car filled with gas and have cash on hand in the ATMs are not available.

6.)  Store tap water if your water system becomes contaminated for drinking and cooking.

7.) Make sure that you have non-perishable food for 2-4 days (peanut butter, Jelly, canned fish, Granola bars, crackers......)  

8.) All your important documents are stored in a dry safe area.

9.)  Check with all your people Tonight before the situation goes downhill.

10.)  If you have elderly friends, relatives or parents, please make special provisions for them now.  Do not let them stay alone.

11.)  If you live near many large or old trees -- move your car and think about sleeping on the lowest level tomorrow night as the strongest winds are likely between 8 PM tomorrow night (Monday)  and Midnight on Tuesday.

12.) Stay off the roads when the winds are strongest and rain is falling.  Flooding could be anywhere along with falling trees   Do no hang outside to try to experience Sandy---flying objects, falling trees will take you out!!

If you live in coastal areas, please pay attention to the authorities and be ready to evacuate if called upon.  

Remember, use your common sense and don't panic.     Call 911 if you are in a serious situation -- don't try to ride it out.  

Will Sandy upstage Mitt and Barack??

As the race for who becomes president of the United States of America comes to a close there are many issues on the table.  There are gallop polls of who will win, there are likely votes and independents who may swing the race one way or the other.  But tonight there is another factor to consider and her name is Sandy....Hurricane Sandy that is.  As she make landfall in Cuba after an earlier landfall in Jamaica earlier today the questions is will she miss the US or not? 

Earlier this week, the answer was a definitive miss on the US east coast.  But the European medium range forecast began taking the Sandy out to sea but re-curving it back towards the US east Coast.
The problem with outliers is that they do not always make sense but you can't ignore them.  Today
most of the models (GFS, Canadian, Navy and European models) are bringing Sandy back towards
the East Coast.

There is a large amount of uncertainty, but landfall could happen as early as Monday with deteriorating weather conditions along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic beginning as early as Saturday
evening.  Sandy will be a big storm with a large wind field.  If the ECMWF model holds true, much
of the East Coast could experience significant damage -- more than Hurricane Irene in 2011. Landfall could be anywhere from VA to Maine. 

Even with the uncertainty, it is not too early to begin to look at where your valuables are located.   Batteries and flashlights are a must.  The strength of the storm should not lead evacuations except maybe along coastal zones where flooding may be a serious problem.  But electricity remains vulnerable if the storm comes up the coast.

While Barack and Mitt continue their race to the finish line make sure that you are ready to race
to the store if necessary. 

While neither candidate mentioned climate change in their debates, there is one cut that is off limits:  FEMA 

Be Safe and stay informed this weekend!!

No Presidental debates around climate change

The third and final Presidential debate is finally here.   I have been disappointed in the first two debates that the topic of climate change has never come up.  In the last debate there were many points about gas prices, coal, oil, pipelines,  and making America energy dependent.  All of that is well and fine, but let face the truth -- we need a realistic view of what is happening.  These has not been any remarks or comments about how we will get carbon emissions under control because of the warming climate.  Presidential candidate Romney probably doesn't truly believe in anthropogenic climate change and President Obama is under pressure to shift position and talk about drilling and conventional energy production and less about renewable energy. 

Carbon emission have risen steeply over the last 4 decades, while the rate warming of the planet has also increased over the same time.  Carbon emissions go hand in hand with economic growth.  The problem is that we are playing with a climate system that we don't fully understand and probably never will.  When scientists talk about "dangerous climate change" this is not given serious consideration in the United States because we feel that we are the most powerful nation on Earth.  Well that may be true militarily and economically but sorry, we are no match for nature.  Wildfires, hurricanes, drought, tornadoes, heat waves and flooding care nothing about borders or leaders. 

Over the next three decades, leader and people of the world must develop a policy and transform economies to reduce carbon emissions -- otherwise it will have to done more drastically in the middle 21st century. Most of us say "so what, I am just trying to make it today."  True that, but look in the eyes of your children or grandchildren and make that statement.  You will not be here to see what they have to face and they will have to address climate change head on.  The signs are all around us, but we don't seem to pay attention.  Somehow we think that the problem will go away.

This year, the Arctic Sea Ice coverage reached its lowest values.  Crazy thing is that we are watching this happening and companies are thinking about how to exploit and open Arctic.  Messing with fire...

Arctic Sea Ice October 15, 2012.  Purple line is Median value

There are feed-backs and switches in the climate system that no even the best scientist or models can provide insights on how they will change.  The past has shown us that, without human intervention, the climate system (especially ice and water) can behave in a non-predictable manner. 

Within 24 hours, the 19th named tropical cyclone (Tony) is likely to form over the Tropical Atlantic.  Tonight, Tropical Storm Sandy is in the Caribbean and likely to affect Jamaica, Haiti, the Bahamas and possibly parts of the United States over the next few days.  The normal number of tropical systems is approximately 10-11, but recent years have averaged many more than this.  There is no conclusive proof from observations that the increase in the number of tropical storms are linked to climate change, but we should be wary of what we are witnessing. 

Tropical Storm Sandy (Monday October 22nd over the Caribbean)

The discussion on climate change needs to come to the forefront now.  If not now, when -- 2016, 2020, 2024.  We are on an unsustainable path with it comes to carbon emissions and future climate change.  We must slow down our emissions or else.  This is not only about American Jobs, it is about humanity and the future of our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren no matter where they inhabit the Earth.