Tropical Depression 9 Threatens Cape Verde tonight

Sunday 4:45 EST Tropical Depression 9 just West of Cape Verde Islands

Over the last 4 days, me and my colleagues in Senegal, Cape Verde, Guinea and Gambia have been following a wave that began in Northern Ivory Coast last Wednesday and emerged off the coast of West Africa last night.  The best computer forecast models from Europe, the US and Canada and our own model simulations at Howard U and San Jose State U have suggested that a tropical cyclone would develop.  There were numerous problems with the forecast because it is extremely difficult to model how these disturbances make their transition from land to ocean.  Yesterday the models were saying that Cape Verde Islands would be impacted by this storm on Monday and Tuesday.  Today it was clear, that the impacts would begin tonight and tomorrow.  Tonight the first rainbands are on their way into the Capital of Cape Verde, Praia which has the largest population.  However, the entire country will be impacted by the storm although the southern islands will be impacted the most.

The real problem with this region is that there are very few observations, there are no aircraft to go and investigate the storm, there are no radars to know where the center of the storm is at.   While the storm was over land, satellite based rainfall estimates show very heavy rain falling over Senegal, it is impossible to warn people to get out of the way because everything happens in real time.   It is imperative that we build an observation network in Africa, first and foremost to save lives second to improve the model forecasts.    This has been a very strange year, with dry occurring over central parts of West Africa (Sahel) and wet conditions in coastal regions.  The African easterly waves are developing further south, where there are few observations and then strengthening at the coast.

Our very best models must be initialized with good observations.  Sadly in 2013 this is still not possible in much of Africa.  What are we waiting for????