TO WARN OR NOT TO WARN in the face of uncertainty during Crop Over

The past weekend and today was Crop Over -- it is the Carnival of Barbados. Lots of costumes, music and fun. People fly in from all over for Crop Over for the experience of being there. Of Course it was extra special this year because Rihanna returned home and was in the parade!! The only damper on crop over was a tropical disturbance that was located about 200 miles northeast of Barbados this morning. There was anticipation that a tropical depression would form but the timing was not clear. This morning the storm looked disorganized and the hurricane hunters did not find a closed circulation. However, this afternoon a strong band of convection began heading towards Barbados. Of course without any tropical storm watches people do not normally react to these situations. Between 4 and 5 PM a heavy band came in over the island causing flooding.

This brings up a fundamental question: If you anticipate potentially dangerous weather with tropical disturbance but the wind criteria has not been reached should you warn the general population? I say this because the rain bands can produce life threatening flash floods, dangerous lightning and strong winds that can bring down power lines and trees. On the other hand should you get folks panicked?? It depends I believe. If a country has the observing capacity such as radars and automated surface stations then you can monitor carefully before warning your population. However, if you do not have these capacities, you probably should lean towards warning the general population. In the case of Barbados, they are having problems with their radar and upper air station measurements. With so many people visiting the island for Crop Over it maybe better to be safe than sorry.

This follows on last years, 9 hour warning prior to TS Tomas striking the island. Many people were upset that they did not get more advanced warning. The Met service was waiting for the National Hurricane Center to identify the tropical disturbance as a tropical storm which may be the right thing to do, but you have to consider the local conditions, preparedness and the capacity of the country. Barbados is a highly developed country but there are many that are not there, and they need to be considered.

As TS Emily rolls across Caribbean over the next few days, and we all focus on the possibility of it impacting the US, we should not forget those countries in the Caribbean (including the ones being impacted tonight), and Eastern Atlantic (coastal West Africa and Cape Verde) that need better observing systems. Until that happens, Met services may need to stick their neck out on the line for their own populations-- even in the face of uncertainty.

The main core of the hurricane season will occur over the next 8-12 weeks -- Keep the people safe!!