Ebola outbreak raged out of control during the last 10 days --3600 new cases

Over the past 8 weeks, the number of suspected Ebola cases has been steadily rising, especially in Sierra Leone and Liberia, with more than 8000 cases being suspected on October 1st.  

Weekly Suspected cases in the three countries (source: WHO)

However, during the past week, the number of reported (suspected) Ebola cases significantly increased by more than 3600 cases between October 22 and October 31 based on WHO data.
Weekly data shows while the number of new cases are increasing in Guinea, it cannot be compared to what is happening in Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Number of suspected Ebola Cases in Guinea (Source:WHO)

Number of suspected Ebola Cases in Liberia (Source: WHO)

Number of suspected Ebola Cases in Sierra Leone (Source: WHO)

The large increases in Ebola cases have occurred in both Sierra Leone and Liberia over the last 10 days.  Either this is due to better reporting or higher infection rates.  Either way this is a very big change and we should all be worried about what is happening in both countries.  This is a humanitarian crisis and likely to destabilize both countries and the region in general.   

Number of new suspected cases versus the prior week for all three countries (Source: WHO)

Based on the data, there have been 300-500 new cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia since October 1st.  However last week the number of new suspected cases jumped from 376 in the prior week to 1870 on October 31st in Liberia .

Total # of new cases in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone relative to the prior week (Source: WHO)

The new cases jumped from 454 to 1632 new cases in Sierra Leone.  This two countries are responsible for the tripling of cases between October 22 to October 31.  The World needs to really come together to address this situation immediately.  So many families are being destroyed, so many young people will become orphans and so many people are at risk.  The time to act is NOW!!

Hurricane Gonzalo to Strike Bermuda on Friday

hurricane Gonzalo October 16, 2014 at 545 AM EST

This morning hurricane Gonzalo is a category 4 storm with winds of 140 MPH and expected to move over Bermuda in the next 36-48 hours.  Hurricane warnings are up for Bermuda

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

NHC official track for Hurricane Gonzalo

Depending on where the storm passes Bermuda, the country may experience both a strong storm surge and winds which may bring significant damage to the country.  The current projection is the the storm will pass over or just to the left of the island. Passage to left of the Island would produce the strongest winds and most likely a higher surge.  However looking at the elevation map of Bermuda there appears to be some level of protection from the surge.  The two largest cities (Hamilton and St. George) are likely to be spared damage from surge because of their positions.

Topographic map of Bermuda (source Wikipedia)

However, there is still likely to be damage if hurricane Gonzalo passes over Bermuda as a major hurricane.    Because Bermuda is a tourist location, many of the assets around this industry may suffer some degree of damage. The picture below suggest that with the mix of land and sea that damage is likely by both wind and waves even if there is blockage by mountains in the south.

Bermuda (source Wikipedia)

Numerous hurricanes have come close to Bermuda in the past with most causing little or no damage.  However in 2003, Hurricane Fabian passed very close to Bermuda causing an estimated 300 million dollars in damage.  Maximum sustained winds of 120 MPH were noted.

Track of Hurricane Fabian September 2003 

Visible Image of Hurricane Fabian September 2003

Fabian passed just to the west of Bermuda and it is very possible that hurricane Gonzalo may have also have a similar path.


The next 24-36 hours will be a very tense time for the people of Bermuda.  Let's hope and pray that they are prepared for this significant hazard.

Rapid Intensification for Hurricane Ganzalo -- may deal Bermuda a blow later this week

Hurricane Gonzalo at approximately 5:15 AM EST October 14th 

Overnight Tropical Cyclone went from being a minimum category 1 hurricane (85 MPH winds at 11 PM) and is now on the verge of being a major hurricane.  Maximum Sustained winds of 110 mph are estimated (5 AM) and further strengthening is likely today.  Hurricane Gonzalo is in a weak shear environment making development likely.   Current forecast suggest that Gonzalo may have winds of 130 MPH in 36 hours bringing it to near Category 4 status.  While the storm is currently out over the ocean and not threatening any land areas, the forecast track will take the hurricane Gonzalo close to Bermuda later on this week in into the weekend.  Even if the storm is moving rapidly as a major hurricane (3 or higher) it may still have a negative impact  on the infrastructure of Bermuda.  This late season hurricane is worth watching as its undergone rapid intensification over the last day which the best hurricane models have trouble dealing with.

Current Track for Hurricane Gonzalo (Tuesday October 15th)

Late Season Hurricane Surge in the Atlantic

2014 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 

With an evolving El Nino during the summer season, below normal hurricane activity had been forecasted for the Atlantic ocean basin.   A late start to the wet season in West Africa and continuous surges of Saharan dust provided poor environmental conditions in the Eastern and Central Atlantic Ocean Basins during August and September.  While I expected the Saharan Air Layer to weaken in late August, it never did.   We had 4 hurricanes (One being a major hurricane) and 1 tropical storm.

The Pacific Ocean basin on the other hand has been very active with numerous cyclones in the Eastern, Central and Western basins.  

2014 Eastern Pacific Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Odile had a major impact in Mexico impacting resort areas of Mexico such as Cabo San Lucas.

Damage from Tropical Cyclone Odile

By the middle of September, it was assumed that increased wind shear would limit any Atlantic  tropical cyclones.  However, over the last week we have had two tropical disturbances develop over the Atlantic.    Hurricane Fay formed this weekend impacting Bermuda and Tropical Storm  Gonzalo approaching the Windward Islands.

NHC Active Tropical Cyclones (Sunday Oct. 12)

Track of Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to intensify over the next few days and tropical storm warnings are up for many of the Caribbean nations including Puerto Rico.  Gonzalo may become a major hurricane in a few days when it is out over the open Atlantic.   So you never know, but one thing that is certain, is that Saharan dust intensity has weakened considerably over last week giving tropical cyclones a better chance to develop.

Saharan Air or lack of it (Sunday October 12)

The Atlantic Tropical Season is almost over, but not yet.  Don't forget that Hurricane Sandy came up the East coast in late October causing major damage and loss of life.   Even if it is an El Nino year, the hurricane season is not officially over until November 30th.  Don't be caught off guard.

The People's Climate March - September 21st -- Community and HBCU involvement- WE NEED STUDENTS AND FACULTY TO REPRESENT

Next month up to 1,000,000 people will march in New York City to put pressure on leaders around the world to address anthropogenic climate change (http://peoplesclimate.org/march/)

Each day, humanity is pushing the Earth's climate system in such a manner as to change the chemical composition of the atmosphere which is warming the planet.  If you were born at the time when the declaration of independence was signed, the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations were probably 280 parts per million (ppm).

1776 - 280 PPM

If you were born when the emancipation proclamation was signed in 1863, allowing many of my ancestors to hear the word freedom after centuries of enslavement the atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 290 ppm.

1863 - 290 PPM

Nearly 100 years later, if you were born when the Civil Rights law was enacted in 1964, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 320 ppm.

1964 - 320 PPM

If you were born during 1984 when Michael Jackson gave the We ARE the WORLD concert to help with the severe drought across West Africa, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 344 ppm

1984-344 PPM

If you were born the year when President Obama was elected in 2008, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 385 ppm

2008 - 385 PPM

Today, August 12, 2014 the atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 398-400 ppm.  Notice that rate  CO2 concentrations are increasing faster now than in the past, because CO2 emissions rapidly increased from very low values prior  to the industrial revolution increasing to 1 billion metric tonnes after 1900 to nearly than 8 billion metric tonnes (14-16 trillion lbs) of CO2 today which are emitted annually around the globe.

We are dealing global problem that each and everyone one of us contributes to in one way or another.  If we do not level off the amounts of CO2 through policymaking then our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren, no matter what race, gender, economic class, ethnicity are going to pay the price for what we do today.

My two grandkids... Nasir and Zoe if they are blessed to reach the tender age of 88 and 87 would should expect CO2 concentrations to be 500 ppm if there were actions to mitigate atmospheric CO2 by the generations before them the subsequent ones.  If there are limited actions, they should expect CO2 concentrations of 600-900 ppm.

Nasir - 2100 500-900 PPM

Zoe - 2100 500-900 PPM

We can't let that happen, because the impacts are going to be critical to the billions of people around the world -- a much warmer planet, loss of alpine glaciers, icesheets and sea ice,higher sea level (1-3 feet higher), regional droughts and flooding, threats to food security and water, new climate related diseases, stronger hurricanes. This is our moment in time to make a difference.

Dr. Marshall Shepherd, friend, colleague and past president of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has written a number of articles in Ebony Magazine laying out the position that African American are vulnerable to climate change.

Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Past AMS President

http://www.ebony.com/news-views/are-african-americans-more-vulnerable-to-climate-change-352#axzz3ADSZkr4v

Dr. Shepherd has also given a TED talk about climate change that I would recommend that everyone take a look at.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O019WPJ2Kjs


The African American community has a stake in what happens in the future and people who blow off climate change have forgotten about how historical disparities are going to creep into this situation. We need to continue to talk up this topic.

http://www.ebony.com/news-views/blacks-dont-care-about-climate-change-fact-or-fiction#axzz3ADSZkr4v


So, we are mobilizing and organizing young people from HBCUs to participate in the March on September 21st.  We are anticipating that buses will be available for students and community folks to
ride up to New York.  HBCUs from the south are organizing, but those from Maryland, DC and Virginia need to represent.  Howard, Hampton, UDC, Coppin, Bowie State, Morgan State, UMES, Virginia Union, Norfolk State, we need you to get your young people out to March.  It is their fate and that of the global village that hangs in the balance!!

First Rains in Dakar on August 5th!! -- African Easterly Waves picking up

Finally the first rains fell on Tuesday afternoon and evening in Dakar!!  The first rains should have begun in late June but did not.  We have another 5-6 weeks of rainy season left for the country and need abundant rain for farmers to post decent yields.  Overall conditions are not looking good for daily rainfall, but there are some positive events on the horizon.  In particular, the regular 3-5 African Easterly Waves (AEWs) have been picking up, this week.  One wave passed to the south of Senegal yesterday but was not able to produce any significant rain in Senegal because too much dry air is in place.  This first wave may develop into a tropical disturbance later this week over the Eastern and Central Atlantic.  The atmospheric sounding from today, suggest very strong winds (50 knots) at 10000-12000 feet which provides a vorticity sources (spin) to areas of the south.

Atmospheric Sounding from Dakar, Senegal on August 10, 2014

The dry air, which has its source over the Sahara provides and environment which is very stable and not good for thunderstorm development.   Eventually thunderstorms with AEWs to fall apart.   An example is below which shows how the storms dissipate over Senegal once disturbance enters.

The lack of precipitation is not a bad thing because the disturbances moistens the air providing a subsequent wave with a better chance of producing rain.   A second AEW over Mali today will likely bring rains to Senegal  tonight and tomorrow and this one also has the possibility of developing into a Eastern or Central Atlantic.

Precipitation Rates over West Africa, 8 PM Local August 10 2014 (heavy rain in Red)

A third wave is expected to develop over Nigeria tomorrow.

WRF Forecast at 10,000 ft  for Monday August 11

While it is likely that Senegal will have below normal rainfall this year, if the waves line up over the next 2-3 weeks, there may be abundant rain and the dry winds from the north may subside leading to an increase in local rains.    We have to hope for the best at this point as there another 30 days left in the rainy season.

Drought like conditions over Senegal and the Cape Verde Season for hurricanes

The evolution of El Nino during the spring and summer season suggested that rainfall would be below normal for much of the Sahel (the region just to the south of the Sahara).  During the month of June, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and several dust events were evident over the region.    Since 2005, the Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics-Simeon Fongang at Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar Senegal has partnered with Howard University to measure rainfall within 100 km of Dakar at nearly 40 villages.

Rain gauge at a village in Senegal

Once again this year during the middle of June the students went to the villages to install the rain gauges before the start of the wet season which begins in late June.  However, no rain had fallen at the end of June which seemed strange but not out of the norm.  Considering that the wet season only last for 3.5 months (June, July, August through mid september), it is critically important that any delay in rainfall only last for 1-2 weeks.

However, we are at the start of August, which is the wettest month of the year and only a negligible amount of rainfall has fallen at Dakar.

90 day accumulated rainfall at Dakar Senegal

Overall the amount of daily convection on any given evening has been smaller than normal over the Sahelian region.  For example tonight, there are only small areas of convection, which is not typical during this time of year.

EUMETSAT -Satellite Based Rain Rates over West Africa 8/4/14 at 12:30 AM GMT

Many of the weather systems - known as mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), such as the one that brought down flight 5017 (and linked to TS Bertha) are long-lived and travel across the continent.  They are organized by the African Easterly Jet at 10000 feet.    However, this year as these systems have moved towards Senegal, they have weakened and dissipated.   This is due in part to dry, stable air which has been over locations such as Dakar, Senegal since June.  The source of this air is the Sahara and even when large amounts of dust are not found in the atmosphere, the dry, stable air is still there.   We can find this stable air by looking at an atmospheric sounding which is released by balloon twice a day from Dakar, Senegal.

Sounding from 1200 UTC August 3, 2014 from Dakar Senegal

Somewhere between 1500 and 4000 feet, the relative humidity falls from 80 percent to less than 40% making cloud formation very unlikely in this from about 4000 to 15000 feet.   In addition, there is a stable lid near 4000 feet which stops clouds from growing vertically.   In todays sounding, there were also strong winds of 30 knots (35 MPH) which would disrupt clouds from  growing vertically.

It is my hope that this pattern will break soon, because not only is it going to impact farmers (and hence food security) in a major way this year, but also water resources and electricity (hydropower).   Large amounts of rainfall over the Guinea highlands provides river flow for the Senegal and Gambia River but also the large Niger river which is important to many countries.   The Sahelian drought of 1983 and 1984 continued through August creating life-threatening conditions and the migration of millions to urban centers.

During the next 4 weeks, African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are expected to become stronger potentially spawning tropical disturbances in the Eastern Atlantic.  However, it is unclear how many disturbances will form in the Eastern Atlantic with dry air still in place.   The tropical waves may have a much better chance over the Central or Western Atlantic for further development.  There is a AEW that should pass over Senegal in the next 72 hours and hopefully it will bring rain to Senegal.  

The impact of the oceans on the current and future climate of West Africa cannot be understated.  The warming of the Eastern and Central Pacific ocean temperatures have the potential to cause drought in West Africa. 

Sea Surface temperature anomalies 

Future warming of the World's oceans have the potential to create conditions similar to El Nino based on Global and Regional model projections in the mid to late 21st century.  The only way to reduce any possibility of harming future generations in West Africa is to limit global warming through reductions in greenhouse gases.  We need inter-generational policy.  President Obama has started the process.

UPDATE ON TS BERTHA 

Tropical Storm Bertha is now north of the Bahamas and still moving towards the northwest.  Most of the weather models are carrying Bertha to the east of the US and west of Bermuda.   However, there are some global models that are carrying it closer to the US as of this evening. The intensity of the TS Bertha is expected to increase, potentially becoming a minimum hurricane in a few days as the vertical wind shear begins to relax.  The latest satellite images show it becoming more organized.

Tropical Storm Bertha at 915 PM EST (August 3rd)

 If you live along coast, please monitor this storm over the next few days, especially as it relates to potential rip currents for the beach going crowd along the US East Coast.   This system has already been linked to the death of 118 in Burkina Faso ten days ago (http://gjenks-climatechangehu.blogspot.com/2014/07/storm-that-downed-air-algerie-5017-may.html), ---please be careful.