What's going on? Issac?

This morning, there is a much confusion about Issac as there is about the economy.  Where is the center of this storm?  This reminds me of Tomas in 2011 when it was unclear how the storm would evolve once it reached the Caribbean sea.  Issac has all of the good environmental conditions that should make it intensify and yet there has been no action -- nothing to write home about.  Over night the center of the storm seems to have moved south and the hurricane hunters are finding multiple centers of rotating air.  Well maybe there is still a lot to learn about hurricane intensity. 

There is still the feeling that the storm will impact Haiti sometime tomorrow and then move towards the northwest.  However the confidence in the track and intensity are not so high in my opinion. 

The other issue:  Focus.  There is more stories on how the republican convention might be disrupted by Issac than about how the population of Haiti will be disrupted.  There are hundreds of thousands of people in Haiti living in camps. CNN says 421,000 people.   The convention will be moved somewhere else and the loss of life will be minimal.  But for the people of Haiti, it is not possible to move anywhere except away from local dangers such as rivers that will overflow.  They cannot run from the wind or rain if Issac were to make landfall.  Even with the new houses that have been built by the government it is not enough to cover all of the people as it will take more time to provide shelter for many of those who survived the Earthquake.

In a strange way, the longer it takes for Issac to develop, the more dry air that is available and the longer it takes for the center to come together, the better for the people of Haiti.  They need more time to protect the vulnerable and rebuild houses and neighborhoods.  But this must happen quickly, because eventually a hurricane will strike Port Au Prince.

Haitan Camp in Port Au Prince (Washington Post)

I think that the ECMWF forecast has the right trend and that there may be a more westerly track to this storm.  Even that is uncertain, but everyone from Haiti, Cuba, Florida and the Gulf States need to be ready.  It is still too early in the hurricane season and pattern of high pressure over the Eastern and Central Atlantic has been pretty persistent over the last few months.  Later in September, the evolving El Nino should bring more shear and the frequency of troughs should help to steer some of these storms out to sea.  But uncertainty is in the air, we just have to live with it and stay vigilant.   No of us are in the clear -- even in Washington DC. 

TC Issac Reload

Tonight Tropical Storm Issac makes it way westward into the Caribbean.  Tomorrow it will begin impacting the islands.  This has been a very strange hurricane season.  We have named storms very early on (May and June).  We have had two hurricanes (Ernesto and Gordon).   Issac is a tropical storm and forecast to become a hurricane.  The storm track has been favoring the Caribbean sea, but there has also been so much dry air coming across the Atlantic from the Sahara and the storms have been moving fairly fast over the last couple of weeks.  Hence, thus far the storms have been nothing to write home about. 

This Issac reminds me of a time 6 years ago when its predecessor (Issac) was taking shape off the Guinea coast on about the 19th of September 2006.  The French Falcon aircraft was stationed in Dakar Senegal in the third phase of the Special Operations Period (SOP-3) of AMMA.  All of the forecast were suggesting development of a storm off the coast and I felt confident about it also.  The aircraft team went our suggestions and when they arrived there some 2 hours later -- nothing....  The disturbance was there in the wind field but not clouds, no developing cyclone... a waste of fuel.  Yeah I felt bad about it but it turns out that the disturbance did form much later over the Central Atlantic.  It evolved into a minimal hurricane over the Atlantic that posed a threat to no one.

But can we say the same for Issac that is about to enter the Caribbean Sea?  I don't think so.  It has been organizing itself slowly even with dry air to the north that has inhibited the storm from developing.  There is low shear over the Caribbean sea and the ocean temperatures are warm.  The track of the storm is carrying it toward Haiti.

However, there has not been lots of consensus on where this storm is going or its intensity.  In the short term they all seem to take it into near Haiti, but after the ECMWF model carries it towards western Cuba while some of the others carry it towards Florida.  The strength of the storm is also unclear, because if it does interact with Haiti (which I hope that it does not), the mountains will disrupt the circulation and weaken the storm.  It seems that the storms this year have been difficult to forecast at least in the early stages so we will stay tuned.    But in the meantime, we are ramping up into the heart of the hurricane season.  It is not a bad idea to check and make sure that you have your emergency kit and know where all of your important documents are located. 

You never know.....

Maybe Issac 2012 will outshine its 2006 predecessor

Dry air Impacts on Senegal Rain

So the question that we struggle with is how did this situation come about??  It is a bit technical, but anytime you have a factor that last more than a few weeks, there is a large scale pattern that is at work.  Below I have a few examples of satellite based rainfall movies of how the dry air near the coast is disrupting precipitating system.

Case 1 July 23-24

This is a line of convection that formed during the evening and moved towards the coastline.  Under normal conditions, this type of storm would definitely reach Dakar with heavy rain.  The opposite happens in this case where the observations show that dry air is locked in 200 meter.


Case 2 (Squall line from Mali
July 31 - August 1

In the second case, a relatively strong squall line came across Mali and entered eastern Senegal during the early morning hours.  At 0600 UTC (2 AM US east coast)  the picture show rain rates and the squall line entering eastern Senegal.  But the dry air is still locked in Senegal.  Here is the movie of the line today.

The good news is that even Dakar, did receive some rain this afternoon. But the situation
needs to be watched.

Senegal Dust, Dry Air the possible collapse of the rainy season

During the month of June when I and several students were in Senegal to install new equipment and to examine new data from a ceilometer that was put in last year, we noticed that Saharan dust was being observed in the lowest 500 meters (0-1500 feet).  This was a strange thing given that dust is often found between 1000-3000 meters or some 3000-10000 feet above the ground.  So as the picture for June shows above green represents dust aerosols and the are trapped below what is called the marine boundary layer.   Unfortunately this means that the dust cannot be dispersed but has remained in place.  But since we had never seen this before for Senegal we were skeptical.

There were days that the dust was apparent such as June 18 and 19th when there large amounts of dust flowing over Senegal.  However, this dust was above the layer that we continued to see day after day.  On these days we could see how the Sun was obscured by all of the dust in the air.

 

However, in the layer with the dust, we also noticed that the relative humidity was something line 1% between 600-1200 feet above the ground.  Initially we figured that there was something wrong with the instruments for measuring relative humidity (radiosondes).  However after looking at this situation more closely we now know that it is not an instrument problem.  As an example here is the relative humidity from the week of July 17 and it is very clear that there is a layer of very dry air over Dakar every day during this week. 


So you say so what to all of this???  Is it really that serious.  The answer is Yes.  Why?

1.)  The dust is unhealthy to breath in.  The particles are so small that they get trapped in your lungs.  Hence you feel really sick.  If you have asthma -- you have real problems breathing and given the state of the health care system in Senegal and the access to resources many people will get sick.  The dust most likely carries Mengintis which can lead to death if not treated.   Early indications are that Meningtis rates have increased across the entire country. 

2.)  The very dry layer with the dust creates a very stable layer which tends to disrupt rainfall.   Thunderstorms and other forms of organized rain prefers the opposite situation, with unstable air not no dry air.  There have been two heavy rain events thus far but most of the organized systems have fallen apart as it travels across Senegal.  Tomorrow begins the month of August with the highest rain amounts normally.  However, I believe that below normal rainfall is a strong possibility unless this pattern stops. 

Both reasons put millions of people in and around Dakar along with the other coastal cities at risk.  The early analysis suggest that the dusty air is coming from Western Sahara.  The dry air is probably coming from two sources: the Subtropical Atlantic and sinking over Dakar and from the Western Sahara.  

So how long has this been going on?  Since May..  For nearly 3 months.  When will it end??? No one knows.

Even thought a tropical storm is possible in the next day impacting the Caribbean, this pattern is not conductive to tropical storms forming over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.  They will have to wait until they are away from the dry dusty air. 

I will continue to update.   As of now, there has been no change in status.  The dust and dry air remains in place this week.

Wild Swings in the Climate during 2012

I have been planning to post about the observed weather and climate for many months now.  Just too many things happening with life, teaching, research and students.  But here is a review of some of the key items:

1.)  A warm dry winter across much of the US.  For example Washington DC (National airport) observed :
-- December - Trace of Snow, Temperatures 5.3 degrees above normal
--January - 1.7 Inches, temperatures 4.7 degrees above normal, temperatures of 60 degrees or higher occurred 6  times.
- February - 0.3 inches of snow, temperatures 5.4 degrees above normal.  A maximum temperature of 72 degrees on February 1st.

The warmth continued to March with temperatures being 80 degrees or higher on 4 days during the month of March. 


2.)  Dry conditions then followed with a deficit of rain during March (-2.46 inches), April (-1.14 inches), May (-0.71 inches) and June (-1.4 inches of rain). 

3.)  Because much of the US had little snow and hence dry going into the spring, wildfires broke out
in the Western US. 

4.)  In Washington DC, the heat in June/July has been unbearable.  There were 11 days in June with temperatures 90 or above and 7 that were 95 or above.  The hottest day was June 29th with a temperature of 104 was recorded and later that evening the Derecho event came plowing through DC
causing massive blackouts and damage.  Winds were clock at 70 MPH at national airport with higher gust being reported.

July has outpaced  June with 15 days thus far being above 90 degrees at National Airport.  Twelve of the 15 days have been hotter than 95 degrees and six days have been 100 degrees or hotter.

Maybe all of this is all coincidence but looks like climate projections from the models. Regardless of what the models project, dealing with temperatures that are above normal are problematic for even the best of us.  The impacts such as wildfires because of reduced snow often manifest themselves later.  The additional power for cooling our homes and driving in traffic just add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere -which should ultimately lead to more warming.   The additional power puts lots of strain on the electric grid.  I wonder how we get out of this????  By the way, its not over yet.  August it typically your warmest month.

In the next blog, will focus on the changes in the atmospheric conditions in Senegal that are causing serious problems and the impacts on the upcoming hurricane season. 

Sunday's Choice for Senegal: THE DOOR OF NO RETURN

On Sunday, February 26, 2012 voting polls are being set up, international observers are being set in place, a former president of Nigeria is in town. It looks so normal and yet it is so bizarre.
Everywhere around us, change is occurring because people are frustrated and want to be respected. It is another case where those in power use whatever means to stay in power.
In this case, many leaders around the world do not seem to think that what President Wade cooked up is unethical or wrong. They ask for a peaceful election, but how can you have an election when it is unfair and not legitimate.

They are asking people to make a ethical choice about choice, freedom, democracy, the human spirit and will. Mr. Wade is asking people to make internal choices of voting which rip at the heart with his candidacy. He know this but continues to push ahead as if it doesn't matter.

Now we reach the point of choice - TO BE OR NOT TO BE.

The Senegalese are neither weak or stupid people. Their spirit cannot be contained as history reminds us. They are represent some of the strongest to survive the middle passage of the long slave trade and their genes and spirit can be found the western hemisphere (US, Caribbean, South America). They fought the colonial powers with spiritual leaders such as Cheikh Amadou Bamba- Serin Touba whose spirit of resistance still lives in the people and are in this current struggle. They strove for independence from the French and was one of the first countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to receive it in 1960.

Now the fight something from within their country: lack of employment, hunger, poverty, days and nights without power, expensive gas-oil and food. Most of all they fight corruption and the power that it yields. The poor are shut out from opportunity unless they are being used as political pawns. The young people have no jobs and crowd the university for the pursuit of education and opportunity. President Wade has become separated from the pain of the poor and working classes in Senegal. He has lost his way. He must step aside.

He must step aside!! WADE stop right now.

If he does not, then on Sunday, the people of Senegal in 2012 face what their enslaved ancestors faced for many hundreds of years: THE DOOR OF NO RETURN.

Its a Wonderful World in a Tumultous time (2012)

A young man hurls a stop sign at the police (source: the telegraph)

Far away from the shores of America and within various cities of America change is trying to blossom. Yes the climate is warming and the growing season is becoming longer. But the change that I speak of is related to freedom. In a country that I love as if it is my own, Senegal, the people have taken to the streets over the last year. Last June 23rd, I saw something that I had never seen: RESISTANCE and I felt something that I have never felt in Senegal from a large group of people: ANGER.

The basic issue come down to this: fairness, equity and respect. Whether we are dealing with Egypt, Syria, Senegal or Occupy Wall Street, the working class of people feel that they are moving further and further way from equity. Meanwhile, an elite class of rich who have powerful friends can live life to the fullest and ignore everyone.

Senegal represents a new chapter in Sub-Saharan Politics. The country has always seen dialogue as the means of resolving issues at all scales (between two people or two political parties). Now the people realize that it is not possible. They see that corruption and power can use dialogue as a means for getting more while doing less. The sad thing is that this is not about democracy, but it is about the right to stay in power. President Wade used a firm in the United States to validate his ability to run for a third term, even though the constitution says 2 terms. His legal out, is that the new amendments were added after he was president. From this perspective he is right, but ethically is he right???? I do not think so. It takes strength to be humble when you don't have to be.

I fear, the in this day, humility in public service is a thing of the past. Or is it? For now the answer is yes. But what is driving so much turmoil today is the basic need to be respected and to be treated as a human being. This is the core of democracy and it brings out the best of us. It says that if we want to be treated fairly, then we must treat others fairly. It say that respect is a basic human right, regardless of your economic status.

I am extremely worried about what will happen as the February 26th election approaches. I am worried for the people that I care so much about - my very good friends who are as close as family. I am worried that violence will enter the minds of the youth and a long period of instability will follow. I spoke to my good friend Zeyna and she told me that the police were fighting the youth since Thursday downtown. She does not feel that it will end nicely and that people will die before change finally comes. I hope and pray that she and her family and all of my friends will be safe in this period. I hope that another solution exists and I think that it does.

While President Wade may be right, he should look around the country where there is unrest in all major cities and ask: AM I RIGHT? He should step aside for the future of Senegal. Of course if he does not, then he must be ready to accept what is coming.

People want to be respected, treated fairly and aspire to the higher aspects of themselves and their countries. This makes it a wonderful world. Money, power or tear gas cannot kill this spirit.